4 Nations Face-off Tournament PRIMER

The NHL has brought us a tournament with four teams, and it’s also in Boston! We might as well pay attention!

Just the Facts

• What is it?: A round robin tournament created by the NHL to temporarily replace the NHL All-Star game.
• Where is it being played?: The Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, and TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
• Who is playing?: Canada, Finland, Sweden, and the United States of America
• Where to Watch it: See Schedule down the page. It alternates between ESPN and Turner networks depending on the gameday.
• What is it being played for?: If you’re looking for a philosophy reason, the Four Nations Faceoff is being played as part of a broader commitment to the players and fans on behalf of the NHL to enter the wider hockey-sphere without dragging out the stupid plastic trophy nobody cared about last time, and hopefully not a bone thrown to their players in case the Milan Winter Olympics fails to meet their nebulous standard of quality. As for a physical thing to be played for? No idea. Let’s call it bragging rights.

Bruins at this Tournament

• Brad Marchand is set to be part of Canada’s forward corps!
• Elias Lindholm is projected to be Sweden’s 4th line center, though personally I’d have him as Carlsson’s wing.
• Jeremy Swayman is likely going to be given the best seat in the house to watch Connor Hellebucyk, but hey, he might get to play Finland!

Tournament Preview

Canada – Battle for a Bleeding Soul

• Strengths: Overwhelming Skating Talent Advantage. Only the USA compares.
• Weaknesses: The gulf in performance between their skaters and their goaltenders is big enough to run a train station in.

You’d think that Canada, the premiere country when it comes to Ice Hockey, would be walking into this tournament with a level of confidence and swagger that rivals the average American ego, but instead it feels like Canada sort of needs this win. Even if only to start believing in their country’s program again.

The obvious selling point for Team Canada as champion is the mere fact that Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby, at long last, finally get to wear the Red Maple Leaf together; the premiere talent of the sport of the 2000’s and the premiere talent of the modern day, who have been denied the chance to join forces at the international level by the treachery of their own CBA finally getting to right that wrong. Complimenting that one-two punch of talent is the absolute horde of forward talent they happen to bring along with them; that one two punch can be augmented by any combination of Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Reinhart, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Brad Marchand, Seth Jarvis, Travis Konecny, and Brandon Hagel as potential linemates.

Their Defense? Pretty solid too! I don’t love Parayko and Shea Theodore necessarily, but the rest seem particularly geared towards advancing the puck as quickly and efficiently as humanly possible. Canada’s overwhelming advantage in this tournament will be this embarrassment of riches in the five players moving around on the ice, and the expectation that the talent gap at both forward and defense in comparison to the rest of the tournament is good enough to get them into the finals.

Because as good as their skating corps is, and it is a world class skating corps…their goaltenders are a clear weak link.

Montembeault, Binnington, and Hill have all been hovering around .900 in SV% all year, and have been enormously solvable in just about every game they’ve been part of. Even worse, Washington’s Logan Thompson was absolutely willing and available as a choice for Team Canada, and for whatever reason…they just decided they didn’t need him because their general managers didn’t like him? Even if he’s head and shoulders better than the three goalies they picked??

It’s such a bizarre decision that highlights a problem Team Canada has been inflicting on their fans for years at this point; a fundamental arrogance in the sheer quality of their own talent that allows them to believe that their inherent Canadian hockey-ness will allow them to overcome the fact that they keep making weird decisions with their hockey club.

I mean, with the roster they have, it should be far more enough to get them to the championship, but man it feels weird to see the expected best country in the world keep tying a hand behind their backs for reasons of pride.

Prediction:

Canada shows up to every ice hockey tournament the favorite until proven otherwise, and frankly the squad as it stands is more than good enough to justify that. By all accounts, this should be a team playing until the very end based on it’s forward corps alone.

But if it for some reason doesn’t? Rev up those referendums!

Finland – Doing more, with less

• Strengths: Center depth, Team Chemistry, Penalty Killers, Goaltending talent, System Play
• Weaknesses: Injury bug actively conspiring against them

Suomi has the smallest pool of players to work with in this tournament, and in some cases that’s a good thing; with such a limited stock of players, you can’t really overthink your decisions, and Finland didn’t see a reason to.

Their center depth is perfect for the kind of game Finland usually likes playing; a ferocious group of 2-way players that compliment the wingers they’ve brought to the dance. Making it even better is that a number of players come to the tournament with built-in chemistry; Lehkonen and Rantanen played on the same line in Colorado, Granlund and Hintz play together in Dallas (this also would’ve applied to Miro Heiskanen had he been able to play), Valikmaki and Maata play together in Utah, Loustarinen and Lundell play together in Florida, and many of them have played together at IIHF tournaments, either World Juniors or World Championships, in some form or another over the last decade. If there is an x-factor for the Finns, it is that chemistry of knowing their team on a level perhaps only matched by the Swedes.

Unfortunately, where having a small talent pool can hurt you is that if there are holes in your roster, it’s noticeable, and if the injury bug takes hold, it can leave hellacious wounds. Injury has swept through the Finnish roster like a plague, and it’s defense, which was already one of the weaker groups, has been hit really hard by it; leaving them a total of two defenseman that have posted positive possession metrics over the last 50 or so games in the absence of Miro Heiskanen: Niko Mikkola and Esa Lindell. The rest are…not that.

It’s gotten to the point that their opening practice already had them down a couple of players. From the outset, it’s looking pretty bleak.

If this can be mitigated, it must be mitigated by goaltending.

Finland thankfully is a nation that prides itself on just such a position, and the players they’ve brought are enormously talented…but on enormously bad teams. On one level, maybe all three of their goalies being on teams struggling to stay relevant has uniquely prepared them to put up with the particular issues that their defense may inflict upon them from their work in this NHL season. If not, however…it’ll just be another rock bringing them to the bottom if they can’t work hard enough to overcome it.

Prediction

As much as I appreciate the Finnish system for what it is and the chemistry the team comes pre-loaded with, the reality Leijonat faces is that they are coming into this tournament with a lot of holes that the other teams just don’t have right now through no fault of their own; the injury bug showed up as a B-movie monster on this poor team, and in a tournament packed with this much talent?

This could be a very long two weeks for Finland.

Sweden – Sams’ Klubb

• Strengths: Skating depth, Goaltending, Defense corps might be the best of any team in the tournament
• Weaknesses: Couldn’t bring Hampus Lindholm, Left William Eklund at home for…some reason, Erik Karlsson will eventually have to spend time in his own end, both backups are nursing some lingering condition

Tre Kronor gave Sweden’s World Championships coach Sam Hallam complete control over the roster they would be bringing to the 4 Nations Faceoff, and from what it looks like, he definitely put together a world class list of Swedes to play for him…with a couple of caveats.

Versatility remains the major strength of the Swedes; their defense corps is as deep as it’s ever been and capable of doing a little bit of everything; their veteran corps of forwards, most of whom are either big-time goalscorers or defensive stalwarts, has been augmented by a spry young group of impressive youngsters who compliment them beautifully; something that Sweden’s historically strong systems at the IIHF levels tend to appreciate. Hell, even if you’re concerned about the down years of their centers, you can probably expect them to pick things up majorly thanks to playing with winger talent like William Nylander, Lucas Raymond, or Filip Forsberg.

Hampus Lindholm being out means they’re missing one of the better defenders available to them, Jacob Markstrom’s out entirely and Ullmark only recently came back from an injury, so it seems like Tre Kronor is going to be tied at the hip to Minnesota Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson. Gustavsson is absolutely worthy of the job, he’s just not going to be one of the heads on a goaltending hydra like maybe he was expected to be when the tournament rosters were first announced.

For me, the X-Factor for the Swedes is Centers: Pettersson and Zibanejad are coming out of uniquely screwed up situations from their NHL teams, and are in particular need of this summer vacation of a tournament more than anybody. If they can overcome their struggles and once again be the play-dictating, dynamic centers of their past, then Sweden will be an enormously difficult beat even for the favorites in this tournament.

Prediction

Canada and the USA are the clear favorites, but if there’s a team that could spoil either one of them, you’re probably looking at it. Sweden is both deep, mostly healthy, and their issues are at best nitpicks. A lot of this will be on Sam Hallam to adjust to the NHL ruleset that the 4 Nations will be held under, but I get the distinct feeling Sweden is going to make tomorrow’s opening game a major point of pride for themselves.

USA – Heel Turn

• Strengths: Overwhelming Scoring Talent, Dynamic Defensive depth, Goaltending.
• Weaknesses: Coaching could put a restrictor plate on just how good they actually are

I understand that due to the mess that is the modern internet, there’s a very very slim chance an NHL player is ever going to read my writing, but if a member of Team USA happens to fall onto this platform and onto this blog, I would like to just give you some advance warning about your reception when you play in Montreal; It isn’t you, man.

Thanks to some what I am going to call outside circumstances beyond the control of the NHL; Team USA better be ready for some of the iciest responses they have ever gotten in international play. While I absolutely get why, the US will likely be able overcome it quickly, as this might be one of the most talented teams the United States of America has ever put out onto a sheet of ice. The Forward corps is just killer shooter and killer playmaker after killer shooter and killer playmaker, they are fast, they are goalscorers, they’ve even got some punk-assery with the Tkachuks as insurance for such a thing if the need arises. Sure, Brock Nelson maybe isn’t the best choice over Jason Robertson or Cole Caufield, but for what he’ll be playing for, he’s fine.

It still would’ve been nice to have Robertson.

Losing Quinn Hughes so close to the tournament was a major blow to the American Blueline, but Jake Sanderson has been having an otherwise strong year in Ottawa, so I can at least still say that Team USA’s defense is still very, very formidable; both responsible in their own end and able to leave their own end quickly and easily; in spite of whatever you may feel about McAvoy in a Bruins uniform right now. But of course, the centerpiece jewel in the USA’s crown is their goaltending; Connor Hellebuyck, who has been absolutely lights out in Winnipeg, and will almost certainly play most of this tournament unless Finland or Sweden have collapsed in on themselves and Oettinger/Swayman can find time to play.

So with a roster this good, this complete, and with the all-important position of goaltender being an active strength for the Americans, is there any crack in their armor? Is there anything that might hold them up?

For me, the only thing I can really come back to that could feasibly hold Team USA back is…maybe coaching?

Is some of this some leftover trauma from the USA’s WCoH back in 2016 being such an utter disaster? Sure! Am I still mad at David Quinn for blowing the United States’ chances at Gold against Slovakia at the 2022 Winter Olympics? A little bit! Are either of those men the head coach? No. But they do have input! As such, I do not trust them!

Otherwise, Team USA will be much like a mirror of Team Canada; so laden down with talent that it may not matter if they have any issues.

Prediction:

Right across from Team Canada in the finals. They’re just too good not to.

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Schedule

Wednesday, February 12th

1. Canada vs. Sweden – 8pm EST – MAX, TruTV, TNT, SportsNet, TVAS

Thursday, February 13th

1. USA vs. Finland – 8pm EST – ESPN, ESPN+, SportsNet, TVAS

Saturday, February 15th

1. Finland vs. Sweden, 1 p.m EST – ABC, ESPN+, SN, TVAS
2. United States vs. Canada, 8 pm EST – ABC, ESPN+, SN, TVAS

Monday, February 17th

1. Canada vs. Finland, 1 p.m. ET – MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS
2. Sweden vs. United States, 8 p.m. ET – MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS

Thursday, Feb. 20

1. Championship Game, 8 p.m. ET – ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS

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We at SCoC say good luck to all Bruins who are participating in this tournament, and may the best country win!