It looks like the Vancouver Canucks will say goodbye to Brock Boeser come July 1st. Letting the longest-tenured Canuck walk away after turning down trade offers at the deadline was certainly a choice. It smacks of this management team’s approach to Bo Horvat‘s acrimonious negotiations.
From Hi to Goodbye to Boeser
Boeser was drafted 23rd overall in 2015, a strong draft year for goal scorers. A decade later, the top-ten list starts with Connor McDavid and ends with Kirill Kaprizov. Boeser is in eighth, while playing in the second-fewest number of games among the leaderboard. He’s also eighth in goals all-time for the Canucks, something you’d think would be a mark in his favour.
About a Boes
Brock Boeser’s history in Vancouver has been a mixed one. A rookie season of 29 goals in 62 games and a Calder Memorial Trophy nomination pointed the way to a bright future. His shot was pure death – watching him beat goaltenders who were ready for him was eye-opening.
He led the Canucks in both goals and points even as they struggled to a seventh-place Pacific Division finish. His casual, easy-going demeanour and underrated passing skills won him a lot of fans. Having one of the best flows in the league didn’t hurt in Hollywood North, either.
Boeser’s follow-up was 26 goals and 56 points in 69 games as his entry-level contract expired. The contract was going to be a big one, with Boeser scoring 59 goals and 116 points in 140 games. But the team had to keep it low because of – stop us if you’ve heard this one before – the salary cap.
After a contentious negotiation, the two sides agreed on a bonus-laden deal that ended at a large base salary. That way, the qualifying number would need to be high for the next deal, but this one could stay low. Or low-ish, at least.
Smells Like Teen Salo
As negotiations dragged on, there were a number of fans who contemplated a Brock Boeser trade. He was still young and obviously a great scorer, but the team also needed to rebuild. Moving Boeser could bring back considerable assets, and there was the whole salary cap situation looming.
Somehow, the cap remained a major issue despite two of the most expensive deals dropping off in Henrik and Daniel Sedin.
More than that, though, were injuries becoming a regular feature of his season. Visits to the trainer’s room were more and more common, or at least they felt that way. It was reminiscent of defenceman Sami Salo – one of Vancouver’s best players, but for how many games? They weren’t recurring injuries, but the injuries kept happening.
Boeser still had good numbers through that three-year contract, but not exactly world-shaking ones. He didn’t reach the 30-goal mark unless you count them in aggregate. Negotiation time came around again, and with a COVID-truncated salary cap to go with bad management, it was, once again, contentious.
The pandemic did change the rules around negotiating new contracts, allowing the Canucks to avoid the final-year number. Another three-year deal was reached, and he was given just over a 13% raise from his previous average cap hit.
Goodbye to Boeser’s Injury History, Hello Cash Out!
Once again, the first year of Boeser’s new deal didn’t go particularly well for him. His point total was decent with 55 in 74 games, but he isn’t paid for assists. He scored just 18 goals over a full season as the team switched from Bruce Boudreau to Rick Tocchet.
That switch didn’t hurt Boeser’s numbers, as in his 36 games under Tocchet, he scored 9 goals and 28 points. That’s about the same numbers as he had under Boudreau, but his defence tightened up, and his play in other parts of the ice improved. He was always decent along the walls and in puck battles, but he got better at protecting the puck and getting it to others.
Indeed, his 2023-24 season arguably showed off his best all-around play in his career. Career highs of 40 goals, 73 points and 81 games played were highlights of the season. Playoffs followed, where he scored seven goals and 12 points in 12 games, but missing the seventh game in the Edmonton Oilers series was undoubtedly the low point.
Needing blood thinners postponed his training in 2024’s offseason, and this year didn’t build off that great season. Back at more typical numbers, he’ll finish 2024-25 having hit the 25-goal mark and reaching about 50 points. The big question is: what is that worth?
Can the Canucks Afford to Say Goodbye to Boeser
Vancouver has rebuilt their defence, shoring up their weakest position by trading J.T. Miller. They look solid from first through the debate about who will be seventh and eighth. Unfortunately, that came at the cost of their top-line skill. The suddenly high-scoring Pius Suter joins Boeser as an unrestricted free agent.
Suter is a centre, which is a more coveted position, and will likely triple his current salary cap. The funny thing about Boeser is that he probably won’t get as much of a raise as Suter will, despite being a reliable top-six player his entire career. And no, he’s not looking to triple his contract, but increase it by perhaps less than 20%.
That doesn’t look like much, but it means Suter may get a deal for $4.5 million over a few seasons. Boeser is looking for at least $8 million for at least six years. So it’s a relatively small jump as a percentage, but $8 million is a chunk of cash. He’s providing that sort of value now, but can he into the future – and for how long into that future?
And the future is what matters. Boeser is certainly going to get his annual request, either in Vancouver or elsewhere. What he might not get is six or more years, a time frame we know he’s looking for. And after three consecutive three-year contracts, that he wants some stability is the least surprising aspect of current negotiations.
If Vancouver doesn’t spend on any of their unrestricted free agents – Derek Forbort and Noah Juulsen are the others – then they’ll have just over $14 million available. That sounds great, but every other team in the league is getting some extra cap space. Most teams will have more cap space than the Canucks next year.
Pick Your Poison
Before the team waves goodbye, know that Boeser is going to have plenty of bidders for his services. He’s just turned 28, he averages 30 goals for every 82 games played, and averages 75 games played per season over the last four years. His health was an issue in his previous negotiation, but shouldn’t be now.
A recurring criticism is his lack of foot speed, but frankly, he doesn’t use that much anyway. His scoring comes from his hands, not his feet. Boeser has changed where he scores from, getting more from directly in front of the net than he used to.
The bigger problem is that free agents are in short supply this offseason. At least, ones who can replace what Boeser already brings to the team. In the category of “obvious statement is obvious,” Mitch Marner isn’t really in Vancouver’s reach. He’ll likely cost $14 million on his own and quite possibly more. Most other players are four, five, or six years older than Boeser is now.
In players his age, Nikolaj Ehlers brings some speed, but doesn’t exactly increase the production. Sam Bennett is a coach’s favourite and adds snarl to the lineup, but overall, his scoring is about the same. Ryan Donato doubled his yearly average in points, which is a giant red flag for future production. He is a centre and should come cheaper, but he’s not a top-six guy.
Everyone else is either taking a chance on an old guy keeping his numbers up (Brock Nelson, Matt Duchene) or hoping a one-hit wonder broke through in his late 20s (Donato, Jack Roslovic). If you’re chasing that level of player, why wouldn’t you roll the dice on a known element like Boeser?
Can the Canucks say Goodbye to Brock Boeser?
Of course. They have had little compunction in removing players they didn’t want around. The team will survive without him, but should they? No, probably not. There is little on the market available to replace him directly, and a trade requires moving out both future assets and likely current players.
It should be said that while plenty has happened to him, Brock Boeser is possibly the least dramatic player the Canucks have ever had. And he is, by all accounts, very well-liked in the room. Don’t tell us that isn’t important, not after everything that’s happened in 2024-25.
There are prospects in the chamber with improved AHL depth, but really, the only chance of replacing a 30-goal scorer is Jonathan Lekkerimaki. Lekkerimaki is a rookie next year, and is certainly NOT ready for that much responsibility just yet.
It could be that the team will surprise everyone, swinging deals left and right to fill the forward ranks. But it’s hard to picture that they will do that and improve the team and get better value from the new arrivals than Boeser already provides.
So, yes the Canucks can say goodbye to Boeser. But why?
Main Photo Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
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