Today we shall discuss a popular topic and whether or not Adam Gaudette’s recent success is statistically sustainable. One of the main arguments for him being able to sustain his level of play is his AHL league-leading 44 goals from 2023-24. However, he has played a very large NHL sample size up to this point of his professional hockey career. He has yet to maintain a high rate of scoring. Therefore, it leads to our discussion of whether or not the Ottawa Senators Adam Gaudette’s early success in 2024-25 is something he will maintain.
Studying the Sustainability of Adam Gaudette’s Scoring Stats
Gaudette has recently found himself a part of the line known as the GST Line along with Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux. The trio has been quite successful thus far. According to moneypuck, they have played around 50 minutes as a line together. They actually haven’t generated much offence but they have brought a lot of energy and excitement. That line only achieves a 41.5 xGoals% but they have outscored their opposition 2-1. The fact that they have such a low xGoals% puts into question the long-term viability of keeping them together as a highly-relied upon offensive generating line.
If we shift our study to Gaudette individually, we find he’s right around his career average ice time. At 11:27 over his career, he is at 11:03 this year. It is very difficult to achieve strong, consistent offensive numbers without approaching 16 minutes a night. Also, it can be difficult to raise a player’s ice time significantly and he still maintain his effectiveness. Although he does get some power play opportunity. He has played 41 minutes out there for the Sens second unit in 2024-25. So, if we consider his lack of total ice time, it makes it very difficult for him to end up with good points-per-game average over a full 82-game slate. But we can offset that impact slightly with his time on the power play.
Already at Career-Highs
Gaudette has already surpassed his career-high in goals in the NHL. In 2019-20, playing for the Vancouver Canucks, he scored 12 goals in 59 games. Through parts of seven seasons in the NHL thus far, that was also his career-high in games played. He should pass that this year. Furthermore, as a 28 year old, he is playing determined to show he can be an NHL regular. That is something that the Sens lineup has benefited from greatly. That extra motivation for Gaudette personally to play in the NHL for the next number of years is an important factor. So far, he’s only missed one game for the Sens in 2024-25.
Overall, it’s about how you play on and off the ice. It is how your play and attitude is seen through the dressing room and it reverberates throughout the lineup. You notice it in players’ confidence with the puck scoring goals. These are the types of things that seem to workout favourably for Gaudette. The coach and his teammates seem to have confidence in him and he is rewarding them.
Adam Gaudette’s Advanced Stats Analysis
Now to focus on the individually sustainability of his performance from an analytic lens. His Corsi is strong with a CF% Rel of 9.5. His points/60 minutes is 2.9, which is interestingly aligned with his 2.7 rate from that 2019-20 campaign. Scoring rate is crucial to determine a scorer’s efficiency and effectiveness to their respective team’s success. Therefore, he does have some underlying analytical reasons to argue his success is potential to maintain.
On the other hand, one statistic that isn’t sustainable is his shooting percentage. He’s still only taken 37 shots on goal, good for a 35 S%. Another statistic that puts into question the overall sustainability of his play so far is his lack of assists. With only two through 28 games, it is becoming a bit of a standard. It is usually more effective to analyze points-per-game rather than goals-per-game when analyzing a players performance. However, there may be some exception to that rule in the likes of Zach Hyman or perhaps Cole Caufield.
In the end, Adam Gaudette’s stats are quite impressive. The facts he spends time with top players or on the power play supports the case for sustainability. However, in general, his lack of ice time and with an elevated shooting percentage, are signs that we can expect some negative regression throughout the year. Still being on pace for over 35 goals over a third of the way through an NHL season is an impressive standing.
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