The Battle of Ontario appears to be almost over, as the Leafs have held serve for a three-zip lead, thus far. Welcome back to the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff predictions from us here at Last Word on Hockey as we feature the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Ottawa Senators. Will Ottawa be able to salvage a game on home ice, or will Toronto take care of the sweep? Find out our thoughts.
NHL Predictions as the Toronto Maple Leafs Take On the Ottawa Senators from the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata, Ontario
TV: Sportsnet, CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, TVA Sports, TBS, truTV, Max
7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Eastern Conference Round One Playoff Series: Toronto 3 – Ottawa 0.
The Ottawa Senators find themselves in a seemingly insurmountable hole against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Just what will they do in Game 4 on home ice? They definitely need to use their line matching and then, mix in some toughness to their advantage. Furthermore, one aspect of the Sens overall game that needs improvement is their scoring efficiency. Playoff performers like Mark Stone and Mark Scheifele are essential to your teams’ bottom line. Those type of guys, just aren’t there this year in Ottawa.
Who’s It Going to Be, Toronto or Ottawa?
This table below is very interesting, and it shows expected goals, actual goals, and goal-producing efficiency. As you can see the Leafs high-end skill is very strong. They generate more, score more, and do so, more efficiently. That is okay, as Ottawa has a gameplan that can still win. The Sens use speed, skill, and playing the body to force turnovers and being able to finish. Mix in some great goaltending and you have a recipe for success.
One could make the argument that Ottawa has not had good goaltending from Linus Ullmark. While that may be true, he has been a huge part of the formula for success for Ottawa throughout 2024-25. Ottawa did win all three regular season matchups after all.
Overall in the series, we have discussed it already, the Ottawa Senators are doing well. For a team that hasn’t tasted playoff hockey in their eight-year rebuild so far, it has left a nice taste in the mouths of Sen fans. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Jake Sanderson, they will be back to dancefloor. Guys like Tyler Kleven and Ridly Greig are still just tapping into their potential.
For Toronto, and our NHL predictions, they just need to do what they’ve been doing. Auston Matthews continues to prove he is a complete player with his backchecking and at times, physicality. Mitch Marner is a very dangerous offensive player. Furthermore, they have William Nylander to further hammer home their depth at high-end ability.
It’s not like Ottawa can’t matchup to them line-for-line. That is an aspect that keeps Ottawa competitive. Heck, even the Sens third line is a treat to watch at times. But Toronto has a lot of depth in the talent category and are a well-constructed team because of it. That has been a difference-maker, not only in the series, but for the entirety of the 2024-25 edition of the Leafs.
NHL Predictions Sens and Leafs
Surprise, we like the Sens in this one, just like Game 3, but hey, we digress. However, being down 3-0, is much worse than 2-0. Look for the Sens to play a little loose at the thought of their season being over, and to just go out there and dig in, like head coach Travis Green would be more than proud to watch.
Game 4 Final Score Prediction: Ottawa 3 – Toronto 2.
If you want to go with a money to kick-start a parlay, it is a good start to build your bet around. Mix in one point from Drake Batherson and Matthew Knies. Finally, cap it off with Tim Stutzle getting three-or-more shots, that’s paying +1300. Might be worth it!
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Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
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