Heat (9-9) at Celtics (16-4) Game #21 12/2/24

The Celtics look to get back in the win column as they host the Miami Heat.

The Celtics and Heat face off for the first time since the Celtics beat the Heat in Round 1 of the playoffs last season. This is the first of 4 games this season. They will meet again in Boston on April 2 and they will meet twice in Miami on February 10 and March 14. The Celtics swept the series 3-1 last season. The Celtics are 83-53 overall all time against the Heat and they are 43-23 all time in games played in Boston.

The Celtics are 2nd in the Eastern Conference, 1.5 behind the Cleveland Cavaliers after losing the game on Sunday night. They are 7-2 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are 14-3 against Eastern Conference opponents and after winning 7 straight games, they lost their last game. The Heat are 6th in the East and 4-5 on the road. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and 7-6 against Eastern Conference opponents. After winning 2 games in a row, they lost their last game.

While the Celtics have basically the same team as last season, the Heat have changed somewhat. They lost free agents Caleb Martin (Philadelphia), Cole Swider (Pacers), Alondes Williams (unsigned), Patty Mills (Utah), and Delon Wright (Bucks). They added Kel’el Ware with the 15th pick in the draft and Pelle Larson with the 44th pick in the draft. They also added Alec Burks in free agency.

The Celtics are playing on the second night of back to back games, having played at Cleveland on Sunday. The Celtics are 3-0 so far on the second of back to back games. This is the first game of a 5 game home stand against with games against Detroit, Milwaukee, Memphis and Chicago at home following this one. They then visit Chicago in a home and home set and then travel to Orlando before another 4 game home stand where they host Philadelphia, Indiana twice, and Toronto.

The Heat are also playing on the second night of back to back games. The Heat are 2-0 on the second night of back to back games. They played at Toronto on Sunday and traveled to Boston for their second straight road game. They will return home after this one for a 4 game home stand against the Lakers, Suns, Cavaliers and Thunder, with the knock out round occurring between Clevland and OKC.

Jaylen Brown (illness) and Derrick White (foot) missed Sunday’s game against the Cavaliers and both are listed as questionable for this game. Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday played on Sunday, but Tatum is questionable and Jrue is out for this one. Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford are both out for this game for rest since both played on Sunday. Again, I have no idea who will actually be out and who will start so I am just guessing at the starters.

For the Heat, Josh Richardson missed Sunday’s game and is questionable for this game with an illness. Nikola Jovic also missed Sunday’s game due to a left ankle sprain and is questionable for this game. Kel’el Ware missed Sunday’s game due to right foot tendinitis and is questionable for this game. All will be a game time decision. Jimmy Butler Butler suffered an apparent right knee injury in the 4th quarter of Sunday’s game and is out for this game. I’m guessing that Jaime Jaquez, Jr will start in his place.

Probable Celtics Starters

PG: Derrick White
SG: Sam Hauser
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Neemias Queta

Celtics Reserves
Payton Pritchard
Luke Kornet
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman, Sr
Jordan Walsh
Baylor Scheierman

2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Anton Watson

Injuries/Out
Kristaps Porzingis (injury management) out
Al Horford (toe) out
Jrue Holiday (knee) out
Derrick White (foot) questionable
Jaylen Brown (illness) questionable

Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla

Probable Heat Starters

PG: Tyler Herro
SG: Duncan Robinson
SF: Jaime Jaquez, Jr
PF: Haywood Highsmith
C: Bam Adebayo

Heat Reserves
Thomas Bryant
Alec Burks
Pelle Larsson
Kevin Love
Terry Rozier III
Ke;’el Ware

Two Way Players
Josh Christopher
Keshad Johnson
Dru Smith

Injuries/Out
Nikola Jovic (ankle) questionable
Josh Richardson (illness) questionable
Kel’el Ware (foot) questionable
Jimmy Butler (knee) out

Head Coach
Erik Spoelstra

Key Matchups

Derrick White vs Tyler Herro
Herro is the Heat’s leading scorer this season. He is averaging 23.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. He is shooting 46.5% from the field and 41.3% from beyond the arc. The Celtics need to keep him off of the 3 point line and defend him both on the perimeter and in the paint. At this time I’m not sure if White will play or not.

Jaylen Brown vs Jaime Jaquez, Jr
Originally I had Jimmy Butler here but he has been ruled out so I am putting Jaime Jaquez, Jr in his place. I’m not sure who will actually start here but I guess it doesn’t really matter. Jaylen Brown missed Sunday’s game and may or may not play in this game. Whoever plays just needs to give maximum effort in order for the Celtics to have a chance in this game.

Honorable Mention
Neemias Queta vs Bam Adebayo
Adebayo is averaging 15.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. He is shooting 42.8% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. He is a threat to score in the paint and grab rebounds and so the Celtics need to box him out and defend him well in the paint but he will also shoot threes if he is open so the Celtics also have to defend him on the perimeter. I’m not sure who will start here but picked Queta at random.

Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense will always be the biggest key to winning every single game. So far this season, the Celtics defense hasn’t been as good as it was last year. The Celtics are 8th with a defensive rating of 111.0 while the Heat are 9th with a defensive rating of 111.2. The Celtics defense was definitely lacking against the Cavs in their loss on Sunday. The Celtics allowed the Cavs to shoot 48.7% from the field and 47.2% from beyond the arc. They definitely have to play better defense against the Heat if they want to get a win. The Celtics need to defend the perimeter especially since the Heat attempt 39.5 threes a game and shoot threes just slightly better than the Celtics at 37.9%. The Celtics need to work harder on defense and make that their priority.

Rebound – Along with defense, rebounding is always a key to winning. As Pat Riley once said “No rebounds, no rings.” The Celtics average 43.3 rebounds per game (18th) while the Heat average 42.9 rebounds per game (22nd). It takes effort and hustle to get rebounds and the Celtics need to give more effort and hustle than the Heat to grab rebounds if they want to win this game.

Next Man Up – With 3 players questionable for this game and another 3 ruled out, the Celtics will need every player to step up their game and contribute on both ends of the court. They need the starters to come out strong and get off to a good start once again. The reserves need to come in and keep up the energy and hit their shots and most importantly, every player must play lock down defense and also crash the boards.

Move the Ball – The Celtics are tough to beat when they keep the ball moving and find the open man but when one player over dribbles and lapses into hero ball, they falter. At the end of the Cavs game, in two consecutive crucial possessions, Jayson Tatum dribbled the entire shot clock without one pass and missed contested layups on both possessions. He needs to continue to do what makes the Celtics successful and keep the ball moving. Everyone knew that he wasn’t going to pass the ball and so instead of an open shot, he dribbled into a crowd of Cavaliers. Keep the ball moving and don’t lapse into hero ball, whether in the first quarter or the 4th quarter. Hero ball rarely works.

Play Hard for 48 Minutes – The difference in the Celtics wins and losses in this year has been the amount of effort they give on both ends of the court. The Celtics must be more aggressive in going for loose balls, rebounds, in going to the basket and on defense. They have to commit to giving full effort from the opening tip until the final buzzer. Hopefully they have learned from their losses and won’t slack off on effort for even a minute in this game. They need to take charge of the game from the opening tip until the final buzzer. The Celtics must be the tougher team both physically and mentally.

X-Factors
Home Game and Fatigue – The Celtics can’t assume that they will win because they are at home because they have already lost 2 games at home this season when they lost just 4 home games all last season. Both teams had to travel overnight and both teams are playing in back to back games. The Heat will be playing in front of a hostile crowd and in an unfamiliar arena while the Celtics will have the crowd behind them to give them motivation. Fatigue may come into play down the stretch, especially for the short handed Celtics.

Officiating -Officiating is always an x-factor in every game. Every crew officiates differently. Some call it tight, others let them play. The Celtics need to adjust to how the refs are calling the game and not allow bad calls or no calls to take away their focus from playing the game. The more aggressive team will usually get the benefit of the calls and so the Celtics need to be the more aggressive team.

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