Boston will be visiting Houston tonight, a top ranked defense in the league
Last night the Celtics were able to come away with a narrow victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and that too with Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup. Tonight, they face off against the Houston Rockets, one of the premier defensive teams in the NBA. Back-to-backs are always tough, and when they’re on the road against two top 10 defenses in the league they’re even tougher. Minnesota is ranked 20th in offensive rating (111.8) and 7th defensively (110.1). Houston ranks five spots better in both – the 15th best offensive rating (112.8) to go along with the 2nd best defensive rating (106.2).
The Celtics will be without Al Horford, as he’ll be resting on the 2nd night of the back-to-back. Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are both questionable as well, though if I had to guess, I’d say Kristaps will play tonight since he was said to be close to playing yesterday. Houston will likely be without a few of their key players as well, though. Tari Eason is listed as doubtful, Jock Landale is listed as questionable, and Amen Thompson will be serving the 2nd of a 2-game suspension which came as a result of a scuffle with Tyler Herro.
Will tired legs affect the Celtics three-point shooting numbers?
Last night Boston shot 57 threes, and converted at a 38.6% clip. They played their typical brand of basketball, driving and kicking the ball out to the perimeter to generate open looks from deep. They’ll likely be looking to do the same tonight, but going through two physical opponents with 0 days of rest in between can easily take some steam out.
So far this season, Boston is shooting 36.7% from three on the second night of a back-to-back. Surprisingly, that’s just about where they’re at for the season as well – 36.8%. The opponents they’ve faced in those games are Charlotte, Brooklyn, Miami, Memphis, and the Clippers, three of which are ranked top 10 in defensive rating (I’m sure you can guess which three.) Houston allows the 2nd least 3PA per game this season at just 34.6. They also hold teams to a 3P% of 34.9 on those attempts, which is 8th best in the league.
What defensive approach does Boston take?
Houston hasn’t had a fantastic season offensively, standing in the middle of the pack when it comes to offensive rating. They rank 19th in three-point attempts, but just above the bottom in terms of efficiency, shooting 32.7% from three as a team – 29th in the league. They’re also close to the bottom in overall efficiency with their 44.3 FG%, ranked 28th in the league.
The Rockets don’t really have offensive weapons that require high levels of attention night-in and night-out. Their two leading scorers, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, both average just under 20 points. Both are fairly inefficient with their scoring, too. Green shoots 40.8% from the floor, 31.6% from three. Sengun, who mostly operates in the mid-range and painted area, shoots 49.3% from the floor, and only 22.4% from three, though he averages less than 2 attempts per game from deep.
They do have a variety of ways to come at you, though. Along with Green and Sengun, Houston has 5 other players who average double figures – Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. As noted earlier, Thompson and Eason will likely miss tonight’s game. That’s opened up opportunities for someone like Cam Whitmore who has been on a great stretch lately. In his last five games, Whitmore is averaging 14.6 points on 50.9% shooting from the floor, 44% from three.
Can Boston win the rebounding battle?
With poor shooting comes a lot of offensive rebounding opportunities. The Rockets lead the league in both offensive rebounds per game (14.2) and total rebounds per game (49.3), and they’re ranked 3rd in the league for defensive boards (35.1). As a result, they have an advantage when it comes to generating second-chance and transition buckets. They’ll be missing two of their top-four rebounders in Tari and Amen, but their leader, Sengun, is always tough to keep off of the boards, and even their guards crash the glass a fair amount.
In order to control the pace and limit Houston’s extra possessions, Boston is going to have to be more aggressive when it comes to boxing out and rebounding. On the second night of a back-to-back it may be harder to lock in. If they get Porzingis back he could be a difference maker, but as for the rest of the team, we’ll have to see where their energy levels are at.