The Celtics All-NBA forward has taken his scoring to new heights this season, showcasing a refined efficiency.
Jayson Tatum is only in his age-26 season. This is typically when players enter their prime but are still a couple of years away from their peak. So unsurprisingly, Tatum is playing the best basketball of his career and quickly becoming variance-proof.
Tatum has accomplished so much already; it’s exciting to think that he likely has at least one more level to unlock — if not multiple levels. After so much consternation about his scoring in last season’s championship run, it’s worth looking at how his approach has changed to raise the floor of his efficiency night to night.
Tatum currently has a true shooting percentage of 62.4%, an elite number for a perimeter player putting up the volume of shots that Tatum is. For context, 20 players are taking at least 18 field goal attempts per game. Tatum ranks fifth among them with his 62.4% true shooting percentage, behind only Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kevin Durant. That’s three MVP-caliber big men and KD, one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in the history of the NBA.
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Let’s start with how Tatum and the Celtics are leveraging his elite catch-and-shoot ability. Tatum has been an elite catch-and-shoot three-point shooter since the second he set foot in the league. In Tatum’s rookie year, he shot 48% on catch-and-shoot three-pointers. And for his career, Tatum is shooting 41.7% on catch-and-shoot threes, an elite number. This is why the Celtics are trying to generate more catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities for Tatum. It’s not dissimilar to when I got League Pass; I immediately possessed an elite ability to consume eight straight hours of basketball. I had to find more opportunities to utlilize this skill.
So, how are the Celtics generating more catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities for Tatum? It’s two-pronged: a slight uptick in off-ball usage plus a quicker trigger off the catch. Tatum is a willing screener, and continues to improve as a screener. For what it’s worth, it’s rare for a superstar to become more willing and improve as a screener. Notably, Tatum has been incredibly effective as a screener for Derrick White.
The Tatum/DWhite two-man game has been the Celtics go-to action this season, especially in crunch time. Typically, the opposing team has a smaller, inferior defender on Derrick White — Cam Thomas, in this case. Teams often try to stay out of the switch, which can create space for Tatum to either roll or pop out for three. Or, in this case, the Nets blitz Derrick White, leaving Tatum open for three. It’s not a choice I would have made. However, there often aren’t great options when defending the Celtics.
The other piece of Tatum’s increased catch-and-shoot three-point volume is his trigger. He became a tad hesitant off the catch in last year’s playoffs and Olympics. That’s understandable, considering the shots weren’t going in. That hesitancy is gone. Tatum is now aggressively hunting these catch-and-shoot opportunities.
The man is six-foot-nine with very long arms. Few players in the world can effectively contest even a slightly open Jayson Tatum three-point attempt. He will hopefully continue to hunt these opportunities aggressively.
The next significant change in Tatum’s game is his newfound friendship with the NBA officials. Finally, Tatum’s acceptance of all the referee’s decisions over the years is paying off. The increase in Tatum’s free throw attempts is either due to Tatum’s improved relationship with the refs or has more to do with increased strength and patience in the post, and the way he is playing more off two feet in the lane. For argument’s sake, let’s assume the latter. I love the way Tatum is playing off two feet when getting in the paint; it’s allowing him to slow down and use his strength to play through defenders to absorb contact and draw more fouls.
Tatum is taking 8.6 free throw attempts per game this season. That is the sixth most in the league, up from 6.7 attempts last year. This is not a small sample thing, as Tatum’s free throw attempts have been trending up his entire career. Tatum averaged 8.4 free throw attempts in the 2021-2022 season. Last season was the one year where the attempts were down from the year previous, which I think was a function of Tatum taking a step back to integrate Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, or just a statistical quirk and he’ll continue to trend up.
The last piece of Tatum’s increased efficiency is his isolation scoring. Efficiently scoring in isolation in the NBA is reserved for few players. Tatum has taken some time getting there, but he is here now. According to Synergy, Tatum is scoring 1.17 points per isolation, which is in the 87th percentile. For reference, in the 2021-2022 season, Tatum was scoring just 0.87 points per isolation (47th percentile). The tightening of his handle, the added strength, a better understanding of how defenses are playing him has all culminated in Tatum consistently dusting dudes one-on-one followed by putting the ball in the basket.
Filthy stuff from the Boston Celtics superstar.
You take the increased catch-and-shoot three-point attempts, increased free-throw rate, and increased isolation scoring production, and you get not only the most efficient scoring season of Jayson Tatum’s career, but one of the most efficient volume scorers in the NBA. You pair that with his elite defensive versatility and growth as a playmaker, and you end up with a perennial MVP candidate.