The Celtics can win their NBA Cup group with a win and a Hawks loss.
The Boston Celtics are back in tonight when they travel to Chicago for the last game of the NBA Cup Group Stage. Last year, the Celtics won their group with a 3-1 record — the lone loss coming to Orlando. With the scoring format, every margin of victory matters and last season we saw Joe Mazzulla have his team intentionally foul Andre Drummond to increase their scoring margin against the Bulls.
There were a lot of eyes on the Nets/Raptors matchup last season with the Nets having the same record as Boston, but only had a +20 point differential compared to Boston’s +27, which leads me to the first big thing:
Celtics can clinch if:
The Celtics don’t necessarily control their own destiny. The most important thing Boston can do is win. They are currently in third place with a 2-1 record and a +16 differential. The Atlanta Hawks claim the second position with a 2-1 record and a -1 differential. The reason why Atlanta is ahead of Boston with the same record and a worse differential is because the Hawks beat the Celtics earlier in November, so they own the head-to-head matchup if the teams are tied. Then it’s the Chicago Bulls who lead Group C with a 2-1 record and a point differential of +15.
This is a must-win game for Boston if they want to advance to the knockout rounds of this competition. However, if Boston wants to win the group and avoid being a wildcard team, they will need to root for the Cavs to beat the Hawks earlier in the day. If that scenario pans out (Celtics win + Hawks loss), the Celtics will clinch the group and advance to the knockout stages.
The order of tiebreakers is as follows:
1. Head-to-head in group play;
2. Non-overtime point differential in group play;
3. Total non-overtime points in group play;
4. 2023-24 regular-season record and finally;
5. A random drawing.
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Lonzo/Giddey and LaVine vs. White and Holiday
Maybe it’s because I’m still a Lonzo Ball believer, but this matchup could be the difference between the Celtics easily handling the Bulls and it being a nail-biter. Although Ball has only just returned from another injury, he makes the offense flow more efficiently when he’s on the floor.
Against the Magic, Lonzo only played 15 minutes and posted six points and three assists in the loss. The Bulls will probably ease Ball back into the swing of things, so I don’t expect him to play more than 20-25 minutes against Boston, but he can make an impact even if he’s on a minute restriction.
Josh Giddey is another known facilitator. The former OKC Thunder player has adjusted well to Chicago after being traded. Giddey is averaging a team-best 6.6 assists and has done well leading the Bulls offense in the halfcourt. In the past, Giddey has played well against Boston. In the five games he faced the Celtics, he averaged 19.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4 assists, on 51.4% shooting.
The Bulls main threat is Zach LaVine. Sometimes underrated by other fans, but he’s an elite scorer. This season he’s averaging 22.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on an efficient 51.6% from the field and 44.4% from beyond the arc.
Us Boston fans are extremely fortunate to have two elite defenders in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White who will most likely be the main defenders of Lavine out of the gates. If the two of them can slow down Lavine, Boston will have a great chance of taking the road win.
Both White and Holiday have been great to start the season on the defensive end. On the offensive end, however, it’s been White who has been shining the most. He’s taken the step up with Kristaps Porzingis out and arguably solidified himself as the next man up in the “big 3” table with Brown and Tatum.
There were games last season where Jrue Holiday couldn’t miss, but there hasn’t been a game where Jrue was unguardable on offensive yet. I’m just waiting for him to have one of those games where he’s phenomenal on both ends of the floor. If we can get that type of Jrue game, the Celtics should like their chances of beating Chicago.
Win the rebounding battle
If I was a coach, I would stress this point every single game. You win the rebounding battle, and you give yourself a better opportunity to win. When you limit the opposition to one shot per possession, you increase your chances of winning.
The Boston Celtics are in the bottom half in team rebounding with just 42.8 rebounds per game. This stat is a bit misleading because although you may not be a good rebounding team, it could also mean your team makes more shots than most teams so there are fewer chances of getting rebounds.
The Bulls on the other hand are 11th in the league in rebounding averaging 44.6 boards per game. That isn’t too surprising as Chicago has one of the best rebounding bigs in the league in Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic is averaging close to 20 points and 10 rebounds per contest and he’s a handful in the paint. Although he can now shoot it from the perimeter (44.9% from deep), the Montenegrin does most of his work in the paint.
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Tatum and Brown this season have done a better job chipping in with rebounds with JT averaging 8.2 rebounds which is his second most ever in his career. Brown is also averaging the second most rebounds per game in his career with 6.6.
With Porzingis only just returning, going against Vucevic is a tough matchup on both ends of the court. Vucevic wants to make it a physical game when he has the ball in the post and on defense he moves pretty well for his size and is always in a great position for rebounds whether it’s offensive or defensive.
Unlike what the C’s did against Atlanta where they overlooked their opponent and paid for it, the Celtics have to look past the Bulls record and act as if it’s a Game 7 if they want a chance at advancing.