Thunder caught Celtics to end 2024, but can they beat them?

The favorites from the West and East meet in Oklahoma City on Sunday. Have the Thunder built a team that can beat the Celtics?

The Celtics and Thunder meet on Sunday in the most intriguing regular season game in recent memory. It’s feels like the most inevitable Finals preview since the Cavaliers-Warriors years and both Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have the most legitimate paths to the MVP award. Beyond that, Oklahoma City leads Boston by 3.5 in the standings and constructed arguably the only opposing force in the NBA that can defeat the Celtics at full strength four times.

Seeds of the Thunder’s dominance showed as early as 2023, when they poured 150 points on Boston at home in a year where they finished below .500. Chet Holmgren redshirted that season before emerging as one of the league’s best two-way bigs as a rookie in Victor Wembanyama’s shadow. He’s a necessary Kristaps Porziņģis counter, one of the few that exist. Jalen Williams gives them close to the second punch Jaylen Brown provides Boston. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum have battled atop the league hierarchy for the 2nd-5th spots alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Dončić for the past three years.

Then there’s Mark Daigneault, who’s become every bit the defensive mastermind that Joe Mazzulla became on offense over the past three years. Isaiah Hartenstein joined them this offseason, solidifying their biggest weakness on the boards and allowing them to play their patented small ball and have the double-big looks to counter when an opponent like Boston turns to Al Horford at the four. Lu Dort can take guards and forwards out of the game. You could go on and on.

They’ve also won 14 straight, adding to the timeliness of their meeting. Though Alex Caruso, another stellar find over the summer a la Jrue Holiday one year ago, and Holmgren will miss the game, as Brown potentially will, there’s enough here to assess what a series could look like. The Celtics’ three-point volume edge remains a staggering advantage over the rest of the league, Thunder included, even with Oklahoma City matching their efficiency last year. The Thunder boast the speed, layers of playmaking and physicality that the Hawks, Grizzlies, Pacers and others have utilized to disrupt Boston to begin this season.

Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

It’s like Oklahoma City cloned the Celtics’ blueprint — and they have more coming. First round point guard Nikola Topić is rehabbing his ACL tear. The Sixers might owe them a first from the Al Horford trade to go with as many as three additional first-rounders this summer. In the following three years, they could own nine firsts and 15 seconds, an absolute necessity to surviving the league’s new cap provisions that’ll stress the Celtics’ ability to maintain their core starting in 2025-26. That adds to the pressure for Boston to run it back while they have the chance.

Both teams have to get through challenging paths to make their collision course pan out. The Celtics might tackle the East as the two or even three seed. The Thunder’s path might be grueling from round one despite growing its advantage as the West’s top seed. Dallas handled them last postseason and could push them to the brink again if they get healthy. Denver could have the best player in the series. The cumulative effect of playing three tough series undoubtedly made the Mavs easier to handle for Boston in the Finals.

But should they play for the title, it’ll come down to Mazzulla’s favorite stats — shooting, rebounding, free throws and turnovers. The Thunder have regressed to 34.9% from three so far and rank 25th in offensive rebounding, draw almost even in free throw attempts each night and both teams lead the league at limiting turnovers at just below a 12% rate. Oklahoma City’s defense is better by almost seven points per 100 possessions. Boston owns a 5.4 points per 100 edge on offense. However, their adjusted net ratings both work out to +9.3 thanks to their respective dominance at either end.

It’s a contrast of styles at either end, too. The Thunder take about 12 fewer threes per game than the Celtics and thrive in the mid-range (45.6%), where only the Nets and Suns shoot better. Their defense is more forceful than Boston’s, forcing a jarring 18.9 turnovers per game, a category the Celtics only rank 25th in. Their wings fly around everywhere, and like Derrick White and Holiday, block shots, too.

Boston plays a more analytical brand of defense, and they’ll surely direct shots to the Thunder’s weaker shooters. There aren’t many: Dort knocks down 40% at a decent volume, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander both convert above 35%, as do Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. You also have to keep Hartenstein off the glass. This could be a game where Porzingis drops while Horford, Holiday and Tatum face off with Oklahoma City’s physical center. If they can’t keep the Thunder out of transition, none of that matters.

The Thunder will have issues, too. How do they bridge the math gap? Can they be aggressive on defense when the ball moves so effortlessly? What if Boston’s big wings hinder Gilgeous-Alexander’s creation abilities like Milwaukee’s did in the NBA Cup Final? They’ve limited opponent three-point efficiency better than any defense (33.1%). They haven’t seen the Celtics. Without Gilgeous-Alexander last spring, they allowed 42.5% shooting to Boston from deep and lost by 35. With him, they played the Celtics within single-digits in the three games prior.

It’s a fascinating matchup. It’s the first time since the two Nuggets games last year that the Celtics see an opponent that could prove an existential threat to Boston’s championship hopes that often feel bulletproof. If they have one weakness, it’s quick, versatile and athletic opponents. The Thunder have that with size and talent on par with theirs. The Celtics have the trophy. We watched a few months of Wizards, Pistons, Hornets and Raptors matchups to get here.

Game on.