It seemed like just about everybody — myself included — felt that Boston College would beat WKU last week, but that the Hilltoppers would prove a tougher out than Vegas expected. And that is exactly what happened, although it was even closer than I thought it was going to be. The Eagles looked dead in the water until the 4th quarter. It was just enough to fulfill my prediction of a WKU cover despite a BC victory, however, so we keep rolling. On that high note, we’re on to the heart of ACC play with a trip to Charlottesville, Virginia on tap.
At the time of writing, BC sits at +2.5 with the O/U at 50.5. The first obvious caveat we must address is that the status of BC QB1, Thomas Castellanos, is unknown. He was a surprise non-participant against WKU with an unspecified injury, so no one knows his availability for this week. Grayson James, in relief of TC, was uninspiring — especially in the first half — but did just enough to get his team the dub. Regardless, I think BC has a great chance not only to cover but to win outright. Let’s break it down:
BC faced this UVA team last year, needing a second-half comeback at home to defeat them, but this offense will look different with a new starting QB under center. Last year’s starter, Tony Muskett, was injured for portions of last season but almost led the Cavaliers to victory over BC. His backup, Anthony Colandrea, was far more erratic but also proved that UVA’s offense has a higher ceiling with him at the controls. He won the starting job heading into this season, and he hasn’t looked back. Colandrea particularly concerns me because he is an excellent scrambler and can hurt teams in the designed QB run game. BC consistently struggles with mobile QBs; combined with UVA’s strong run game led by Xavier Brown (293 yards on 33 carries) and Kobe Pace (210 yards on 42 carries with two TDs), I expect to see a lot of heavy boxes in an effort to shut down the ground game and to make Colandrea throw the ball. He is a good passer (he’s already topped the 1,000 mark along with seven TDs), but a couple reasons make me think that BC is better off defending UVA’s passing attack. Firstly, Colandrea’s inconsistencies have not disappeared. UVA has played two Power 4 programs; he tossed multiple interceptions to both. BC’s secondary has had its highs and lows, but they have been excellent at taking the ball away. I expect that trend to continue. Secondly, UVA’s receiving room has a clear alpha in Malachi Fields, whom the Eagles saw last year. He’s got 24 receptions on the season while no one else on the team has more than 13. Take away Fields, and I think the offense will struggle. Thirdly, with the way BC’s defensive line (especially Donovan Ezeiruaku and Cam Horsley) are playing, I think they can force the issue with Colandrea and pressure him into mistakes. UVA’s offensive line is not terrible, but it is relatively untested. All of this gives me a rough game plan for shutting down UVA’s offense: Stuff the run on early downs, box Colandrea in, make the Hoos throw the ball and then capitalize on turnovers and mistakes.
On defense, S Antony Clary leads the team in tackles and has added a pick. DE Kam Butler is very talented and can make splash plays. UVA has produced seven sacks with seven different players, so BC’s O-line will need to show up early. How BC attacks UVA will very much depend on who’s behind center. If Castellanos is back there, I think BC will be able to move the ball on the ground given his threat as a rusher combined with the Eagles’ bevy of RBs. If they avoid turnovers and play clean football, I think BC wins comfortably. The game will probably be much closer if we seem James again, but I like how he settled in eventually against WKU and I believe he is better than how he played last week. Either way, the offensive gameplan and playcalling the past couple weeks has been a bit disjointed and ineffective. These issues, coupled with some individual errors (Lewis Bond’s fumble along with James’ aforementioned pick), have really hamstrung the Eagles. If they don’t beat themselves, the Eagles can win. UVA is 3-1, but they’ve only played two P5 opponents and neither were very daunting. It took a last-minute fumble recovery for the Cavaliers to take down 1-3 Wake Forest (who just lost to G5 Louisiana), and UVA got manhandled at home by Maryland (who lost to Michigan State). UVA has not been tested yet, which gives me more confidence in BC.
Picks: BC +2.5, U 50.5