This is March.
The stage is set: the Eagles’ path forward in the ACC Tournament kicks off on Tuesday in Washington, D.C. As the 11-seed, they take on Miami at 7pm on March 12. Should they advance, they would play Clemson on the 13th, followed by UVA on the 14th. Thereafter, the Eagles’ bracket merges with that of Duke, providing a number of possible semifinal matchups. Let’s break it down:
The first-round matchup with Miami provides an interesting challenge. On one hand, BC swept them in the regular season, going 2-0 and beating them as recently as last week. On the other hand, beating any team three times at this level is incredibly hard to do, and with a veteran coach in Jim Larrañaga on the bench it only increases the difficulty of BC’s task. Interestingly, in the first meeting between these teams at Conte Forum, both offenses were firing on all cylinders in a track meet while last week’s contest saw more defensive effort and lower shooting numbers. In the win last weekend, BC did an excellent job of adjusting to slow down Miami’s big man Norchad Omier. He is the key to their offense – his mixture of size, speed, and shooting unlocks Miami’s stable of shotmakers on the wing and in the backcourt (Matthew Cleveland, Wooga Poplar, Nijel Pack and more). Quinten Post primarily took the matchup, and he played a dominant game in limiting Omier to just 10 points. Repeating that performance will be key. Zackery, Harris, and Aligbe/Hand will also need to lock in – those aforementioned wings and guards can create off the bounce. BC will need to come ready on defense.
Offensively, Post (again) is the key. BC found a lot of success with ball screens last week – Post’s inside-out ability is so hard to guard, especially when he is walking into trailer 3s and splashing from the logo. He finished with 19 points on an efficient 8-14 from the floor. Even if he wasn’t the one scoring, his screens allowed Zackery or Harris to get downhill and attack the rim. An underrated aspect of both of their games is their vision in the paint – we have seen a lot of beautiful shovel passes for easy Aligbe or McGlockton weakside dunks this season, and Miami last week was no different. We know BC can get the job done, but it won’t be easy.
The Eagles’ potential second-round matchup features a rematch with Clemson, who spent several weeks ranked and who took out BC in Conte Forum back in early January. However, what makes this potential matchup interesting is that although Clemson did defeat BC, Quinten Post missed the contest. This should go without saying, but they are a completely different team with him. Elijah Strong got the start, played 26 minutes and had 14 points, but ultimately when the tallest guy on the floor is 6’8 it makes it extremely difficult to win. McGlockton was in foul trouble all night, eventually fouling out, Clemson outrebounded the Eagles by 15, and PJ Hall dropped 26 and 11 in Clemson’s victory. With Post in the fold, however, I actually kind of like the matchup for BC. Post will need to be smart with Hall – he simply cannot get into foul trouble (see the season finale at Louisville). Moreover, Hall is simply too good to be silenced. The Eagles just need to contain him and make his life hard. Clemson’s supporting pieces, namely Joe Girard and Chase Hunter, are good but both have limitations. I think Girard will struggle with shot creation with Zackery hounding him all night, and Hunter is a volume shooter (only 42.5% from the floor and 33.3% from 3).
Offensively, this feels like a game where BC will need a lot from Harris. Post will have a major defensive assignment, and though he will of course need to contribute on offense, asking him to be the focal point on both ends of the floor seems like a way to get him tired and into foul trouble. Harris will need to create a lot of looks, whether it is hunting mismatches (I question whether Girard can stick with him 1 on 1?) on the perimeter or finding guys to make shots – Madsen and Zackery in particular. This one is winnable, but it will take a lot to go right.
Let me preface this brief third preview by saying that I think that BC reaching the quarterfinals would be a major win for the program. I know there has been a lot of discourse around the direction of the program and the disappointment that this season has been given the talent on the roster, but 17-15 is a step in the right direction. Adding two more wins – against a top-100 NET team in Miami and Clemson’s 24th-ranked squad – would give the team some tangible momentum heading into the offseason. I think the fact that Grant has elevated the program to the point where a winning record feels disappointing is a sign of progress in itself. Are there causes for concern? Certainly. But a trip to the quarterfinals would be a win.
BC’s opponent in the quarterfinals would be Virginia, who BC lost to in Conte Forum in late February. This was a winnable game for BC – they even held a slim lead in the second half – but they ultimately fell by four as some clutch shooting down the stretch from UVA’s Beekman and McKneely doomed BC. BC’s emphasis needs to be on limiting these two guys, because UVA’s offense hugely relies on them. Beekman is by far the most dangerous threat off the bounce that the Cavaliers possess, and McKneely is simply a sniper. I think if you stick Zackery on Beekman (which he did a good job of in the first game, when he was guarding him) and simply give McKneely zero breathing room, UVA’s offense will struggle. Now, obviously this is easier said than done, but last time out UVA dropped 72 despite averaging merely 63.5 points per game. Limit UVA’s offense and I think Post, Harris and co. can muster enough offense to give BC a recipe to win.
Now, if BC manages to advance, they would play the winner of Duke’s bracket – likely either Duke or Syracuse, with an outside chance of a matchup with NC State. When the Eagles get there, we’ll have more clarity on what they’ll need to do to advance.
One final note: with Chas Kelley’s injury, Grant has begun to seriously shorten the bench. Beyond the starting five of Zackery, Harris, Madsen, McGlockton and Post, only Aligbe and Hand have seen many bench minutes and even then it is down to 10-12 minutes for each. Any run in the Tournament will rely on these starters, but they will be shouldering huge minute loads. I don’t know if Kelley will return at any point, but BC’s lack of depth is a major issue for them. We’ll see you on Tuesday.