The season is nearly upon us
Let the countdown begin. We have just over two weeks before the Eagles are back on the hardwood in Conte Forum, where they will be taking on the Citadel. With so much change in the program this offseason, expectations are rather muted for Boston College this season; the Eagles were ranked last in the ACC preseason poll after losing six of their top seven scorers from last year’s 20-win squad. Nevertheless, the losses are well-documented at this point – in this article I want to take a look at the Eagles’ outlook at each position group for the coming season and highlight some potential areas of strength and weakness for this squad.
Point Guard:
Starter: Chas Kelley III, 6’3, 185 lbs
Depth : Josh Beadle, 6’3, 180 lbs
Dion Brown, 6’3, 180 lbs
Fred Payne, 6’1, 185 lbs
Luka Toews, 6’1, 190 lbs
Breakdown: It is a changing of the guard at the 1 spot, as longtime program stalwart Jaeden Zackery is now with ACC opponent Clemson. Quite simply, I would be shocked if Kelley does not start at point guard this season. Grant has a ton of trust in him; since his freshman year, Kelley has always handled the ball and ran the offense whenever he was on the floor. The difference is through two years of college ball, Kelley has averaged around 15 minutes of floor time per game. I expect that number to skyrocket this season. How Kelley handles the increase in responsibility and minutes will be huge in determining the offensive outlook of this squad, because his first two seasons have been…fine. He is not and will not be a score-first guard, but he has struggled with shotmaking through his first two years. He’s shot roughly 35% from the floor and 26.9% from 3 on low volume, averages that need to increase if he wants to be effective in half-court offense. He’ll also need to cut down on his turnovers after averaging 1.5 in only those 15 minutes per game last year. With all that said, Kelley has definitely flashed. His 17-point outburst against Virginia Tech two years ago, and his clutch shotmaking down the stretch against St. John’s last year, have provided the blueprint for Kelley: a true point guard who offensively can take care of the ball and initiate offense while stretching the floor, and defensively a lengthy athlete who can hound opposing guards along the perimeter. That is who the Eagles need this season.
Kelley’s importance is highlighted even more when you look at the roster and realize there is no clear backup option on the bench as of yet. Out of the four listed above, I am sure one or two will emerge as Grant’s preferred options to run the 1 when Kelley is sitting, but none fit the role perfectly. Brown will see major minutes, but he is more of a scorer and I think he’ll see most of his minutes at the 2 (maybe even a small-ball 3?). Beadle is more of a slasher who eschews the 3-ball in favor of getting downhill and attacking the paint. Payne and Toews both are more natural point guards, but Payne is returning from an ACL injury and Toews will be a true freshman. I will say, however, that early reports have mentioned Toews as standing out; Grant mentioned that he could be ready to make an impact right away. If that’s true, he is probably the most natural floor general of this group and if he can provide reliable minutes it would be a major boon for the team.
Shooting Guard:
Starter: Dion Brown, 6’3, 180 lbs
Depth: Josh Beadle, 6’3, 180 lbs
Roger McFarlane, 6’4, 215 lbs
DJ Hand, Jr., 6’5, 210 lbs
Nick Petronio, 6’3, 195 lbs
Breakdown: Similarly to Kelley, I would be very surprised if Brown does not start at the 2. He’s arguably the most exciting offseason arrival, and by all accounts he has made an impact this preseason with his energy and leadership. He has been dealing with some minor injuries this offseason (sports hernias) but Grant downplayed the injuries and Brown should be ready to go in two weeks. A transfer from UMBC, he averaged 19.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game on 50.6% from the floor and 34.9% from downtown. The Eagles need his scoring desperately. Boston College averaged 74.6 points per game last year, and 65 of those points came from departed players. More importantly, Brown has shown he can win 1-on-1 matchups and get a bucket when his team needs it. BC has struggled with finding a guy who, in late game situations or offensive droughts, can just create space or find a decent look. Last season, BC could turn to Post or, to a lesser extent, Harris and Zackery in those moments; Post and Zackery could both feast down low while Harris was shifty enough to create space (although his streaky shooting often hurt the team). I believe Brown will be that guy for the Eagles this year. He’s not a lights-out shooter, but he takes and makes enough of them to force the defense to respect him. I think his real strength is, well, his strength. He’s not a massive guard, but he plays physical and just has a knack for getting to the rim. He’s got a nose for the ball and he’s just relentless on the boards (7.6 per game! He’s 6’4!!). In transition and especially in the half court, expect to see him stretching defenses and attacking closeouts. He’ll also be very important on the defensive side of the ball. He averaged 1.3 steals per game last season. On a team that will want to force as many turnovers as possible to get out in transition, Brown’s ability to blow up passing lanes and read the offense is a major asset. I touched on his rebounding ability earlier, but I want to reiterate it here – BC does not have a rostered player over 6’9. Now, I do not think that automatically means BC will get killed on the boards this season, but it does put more emphasis on the guards to get involved on the glass and Brown has shown he can do that.
The 2 might be the deepest position on the roster. Beadle is a veteran in the ACC and his experience will be vital to a team in need of it. He knows what it takes to win and he’s definitely chomping at the bit to show what he can do after a couple years of being buried in Clemson’s depth chart. He’s a creative finisher at the rim, especially with his left hand, and he’s completely undeterred by rim defenders. He’s got a sneaky-good floater game, and he’s shifty off the bounce and attacking downhill in the pick and roll. Donald Hand will see a lot of minutes on the floor this season primarily at the 3, but with some time at the 2 (and 4) sprinkled in. His development as a two-way wing will be critical – as will Roger McFarlane. More on them below. Nick Petronio is a natural shooter, but I do think he will need some time to adjust to the college game and I don’t think he will be a major part of the rotation.
Small Forward:
Starter: DJ Hand, Jr, 6’5, 210 lbs
Depth: Roger McFarlane, 6’4, 215 lbs
Kany Tchanda, 6’9, 200 lbs
Breakdown: This is probably the most-contested starting spot in the lineup. I do think Hand will start to open the season, because he’s got the advantage of having been with the program for two seasons and is more familiar with Grant and his system. With that said, McFarlane brings a unique combination of shooting, defense and rebounding to the roster. I’ll begin with the presumptive starter in Hand but I think both will see significant minutes this season. As we all know by now, Hand’s first season with the Eagles was derailed by an ACL injury in the second game of the year. As a sophomore, he then had to deal with not only working back from the injury and fully trusting his body but also going through that freshman adjustment to the level of collegiate play. The results were mixed but promising; he posted 5.0 points, 1.9 boards, and 0.3 assists on 35.7% shooting and 34.2% from downtown. Hand is unique on this team because of his mindset: he is clearly wired to score, and that is the first thing on his mind when he hits the court. Now, this sometimes works to his detriment – especially earlier in the year, he was a bit too trigger-happy and his shot selection was pretty poor. With that said, I did see growth as the year progressed; the game seemed to slow down for him and (for the most part) he stopped forcing unmakeable shots. He found his spots, too – he loves the elbow turnaround fadeaway and is one of the better shooters from three on the roster as well. This year, Hand needs to develop into a consistent scoring threat without overshooting the basketball while also improving on the defensive side of the ball. Hand is an excellent athlete, and with a full year of basketball under his belt following the injury I think he will only get more comfortable. He needs to harness his athleticism into consistent defense. He seemed constantly a step behind his man last year. It is not from a lack of effort or ability, but I think he just needs to process the game quicker on the defense – he shouldn’t be getting blown up by screens or consistently rotating late. With that said, I am excited for Hand in Year 2 (technically 3). He’s got the talent, and I think he averages double digits this year while becoming a defensive plus.
McFarlane arrives at BC having produced big-time at SE Louisiana. He averaged 14.8 points, 8.6 boards, and 1.5 assists on 41.7% from the floor and 34.1% from three. The question with McFarlane (similarly to Brown and Venning, who we’ll get to later) is how he adjusts to a stronger league. I don’t think he (or Brown or Venning) will put up equal or better numbers than at their previous stops, but that does not mean they won’t be effective. I think McFarlane is the closest thing to a true 3-and-D wing on the roster. Moreover, he’s produced in small sample sizes against legit P4 competition – 24 points and 11 boards against a good Auburn squad, 14 and 7 against BYU, 12 and 8 (with a couple steals) against LSU. Now, at SE Louisiana he was asked to do a lot more offensively than he will be at BC, as he was one of only two guys to average double-digit points. That likely hurt his efficiency, as teams knew to key in on him. At BC, he will be much more of a role player; he’s gonna need to play a high level of defense as a switchable wing and he will need to be able to catch and shoot. Without being tasked with so much offensive responsibility, I think he could see his efficiency skyrocket. And (if you can tell there’s a trend here) he’s extremely active on the boards as well. I have high hopes for McFarlane. I also mentioned true freshman Kany Tchanda above; he’s probably the single guy who’s role I have the least idea about. I don’t think we’ll see a lot, if any minutes, with Tchanda at the 3 but we will see.
Power Forward:
Starter: Elijah Strong, 6’8, 235 lbs
Depth: DJ Hand, Jr., 6’5, 210 lbs
Roger McFarlane, 6’4, 215 lbs
Kany Tchanda, 6’9, 200 lbs
Breakdown: We’ve finally arrived at the frontcourt. There are some serious question marks here; BC really only has 3 true bigs on the roster and not a single one has significant ACC experience. At the 4, the presumptive starter is true sophomore Elijah Strong. Strong was not a consistent part of the rotation last year, but he did have two double-digit scoring outings – one against Clemson (when Post and others were battling a stomach bug) and that memorable, clutch second half against Providence in the NIT. Strong brings a ton of energy on both sides of the floor. He’s willing to do all the dirty work and he’s hungry for an opportunity. With that said, there will be growing pains. Similarly to Hand, Strong can get trigger-happy. It seemed at times last year that the game was moving a bit too fast for him, and that would lead to forced shots. He will be given the runway to adapt to the game, but he needs to show major growth in Year 2. Strong told the media that he’s going to be playing more on the perimeter this year and has been working to improve his 3-point stroke. I’m not sure how I feel about that. Strong, in the limited minutes we’ve seen from him, is by far at his best when he’s attacking the paint, getting to the rim, drawing fouls and dominating the glass. Being able to shoot the 3 will only open the paint more for him, which is good. But basing his game entirely from the perimeter will require drastic improvement to his shooting, which is not one of his strengths, at the sacrifice of playing down low. I will be watching his usage very closely. This Eagles frontcourt is dangerously thin; without significant minutes from Strong, the Eagles will either have to pivot to four-guard sets or rely on the even-less experienced Kany Tchanda. There’s nothing wrong with playing four guards at times, and Grant told the media that they will be utilized this year. But without the size and physicality of Strong to balance the four-guard sets and keep defenses off-balance, BC becomes dangerously one-dimensional.
The aforementioned Tchanda is a big question mark to me. Grant has a history of developing bigs slowly – just look at Post and Hastings. I would not be surprised if Tchanda redshirts. However, if he’s ready to contribute right away, it would prove a huge boost to a frontcourt that desperately needs it. At 1-3, the Eagles’ depth may not be perfect but there are numerous bodies at every position that can play. At the 4, Tchanda is really the only bigger wing behind Strong. He’s rangy and athletic, but likely somewhat raw and will need to put on weight. If he does play, expect to see him primarily at the 4 – similarly to how Prince Aligbe was used positionally last season. Beyond Tchanda, in those four-guard sets I expect that one of if not both Hand and McFarlane will be on the floor to provide more size and length while not sacrificing speed.
Center:
Starter: Chad Venning, 6’9, 270 lbs
Depth: Jayden Hastings, 6’9, 240 lbs
Breakdown: Venning, a St. Bonaventure graduate transfer, will probably start at the 5 this year. After producing for St. Bonaventure in a strong A-10 league, he made the jump to P4 for his last year of collegiate ball. He will have big shoes to fill as he tries to replace NBA-bound Quinten Post, although the two have very different play styles. Post was effective because of his skill for his size – he stretched defenses with his prolific shooting ability and could also put the ball on the floor as a 7-footer. Venning, on the other hand, is in his own words, “an old-fashioned paint protector.” He doesn’t shoot threes, although he is not afraid to pop in the midrange. Instead, he thrives down low. He’s not the tallest center at only 6’9, but he is a huge 270 pounds and plays like it. He is a bully with his back to the basket and has a soft touch on the baseline. He will be involved in the pick and roll game and will be a violent finisher at the rim. He is efficient, as well, shooting roughly 55% from the floor on almost 10 shots per game. On the defensive side of the ball, Venning will be tasked with patrolling the paint and challenging shots at the rim. He’s a willing and talented shot blocker, averaging 1.5 blocks per game over the last two seasons, but he is not incredibly athletic and does not want to guard on the perimeter. I would not be surprised if the Eagles “hide” him on a non-shooter and ignore him on the perimeter, allowing Venning to roam the paint without banging down low and hopefully minimizing fouls. The key for Venning will be staying on the floor. His physicality cuts both ways, and he has a hard time staying out of foul trouble. He’s averaged over three fouls per game in each of the last two seasons in only 26 minutes of gametime. I think he will be able to score at this level, and I think BC will heavily involve him both out of isolation and in the pick and roll. Defensively, he needs to play clean defense, work on the boards, and block shots.
Likely backing Venning up will be redshirt freshman Jayden Hastings. Grant and the staff think Hastings is ready to contribute this year, and Hastings emerging as a reliable contributor would be massive for the Eagles. He is not as big as Venning, but he’s quicker laterally and just as willing to deter at the rim and block shots. He will be a rim runner on the offensive side of the ball, but until we see him on the floor I’m not sure just how involved he will be in the half court offense.
So there is the positional breakdown. My predicted starting 5 looks like this:
G: Kelley
G: Brown
G: Hand
F: Strong
F: Venning
Bench (6-9) : McFarlane
Beadle
Hastings
Payne
If I had to guess, I think Toews has the best chance of the three freshmen to crack the rotation this year, followed by Tchanda.
Identity: I want to talk briefly about the type of team Grant has constructed and how I think he wants them to play. Of course, this is all speculation until the games actually begin but there are certainly clues to pick up on:
- Defense-first. This should come as no surprise given that Grant has hammered this message home throughout his first three years in the program. This team is not going to win a lot of shootouts. There are not a lot of pure scorers, and Grant is counting on a combination of growth from returners and a quick adjustment to ACC play for his offense. What he did do, however, is construct a roster that is full of twitchy athletes on the perimeter and a (albeit thin) frontcourt with traditional shot blockers. BC will need to control the perimeter, make opposing ball handlers uncomfortable, and drive them off the 3-point line and towards whoever is guarding the rim. I think a backcourt of Kelley, Brown, and Hand/McFarlane is very long and decently switchable, and those three (plus whoever else sees time in the backcourt) will be asked to bring it defensively every single night. Without an ability to string stops together and get out in transition, this team will suffer. Which brings me to my next point:
- Gang rebounding and transition. Venning is not the most prolific rebounder, averaging just over four per game last year at St. Bonaventure’s. Guys like Brown, McFarlane, Hand, and Kelley will be asked to help clean up the boards and then get out in transition. Venning will be a factor, no doubt, but guard play on the boards will be huge to controlling the ball. Like I said earlier, this team will not win many shootouts. That makes rebounding the ball a priority. Brown and McFarlane combined to average about 15 boards last season, and I expect Kelley and Hand to improve their rebounding numbers as well. BC will want to grind down the opponent defensively, and either take the ball away or rebound effectively to get out in transition. That will give this team easier buckets and allow them to play fast.
- Paint first. I could be dead wrong about this one. Maybe we will see this team hoist a ton of threes. In my eyes, that would be a mistake; there really aren’t that many pure shooters on this Eagles squad. Instead, I think BC will look to get down low through Venning and surround him with slashing and cutting guards. That would create kickout opportunities, and that’s where the 3 ball comes into play. But establishing a physical paint presence first will be key – we just do not have a lot of guys to create space on the perimeter off the dribble. Moreover, just as guards will be active in rebounding the ball defensively, I think BC will hunt for second-chance points in the halfcourt as well. Get to the rim; good things will happen from there.
All right, that’s all I got for now. This could be a long season for the Eagles, and it definitely feels like a reset year. With that said, I cannot wait for the tipoff against the Citadel. We’ll see you then.