Here’s how the bracket could shake out.
We’re onto the final week of the regular season for Boston College men’s hockey, and in addition to locking up the Hockey East regular season championship, BC is now locked in to at least finish the regular season #1 in the Pairwise rankings. Even if they lose at Merrimack next week and their foes BU and North Dakota win their final two, the Eagles will still head into the conference playoffs atop the national leaderboard.
That doesn’t mean BC is locked in to the #1 overall seed for NCAAs quite yet, though. BU and North Dakota both could be within striking distance should the Eagles falter early in the Hockey East tournament and one of BU/NoDak wins their conference title.
So the work is far from over.
That said, the national tournament picture is rounding in to shape, with the seeds starting to look clearer. Let’s take a look at how the tournament field would likely shake out if the season ended today.
First, we select the 16-team field.
This comes from the 6 conference champions, which will be determined via conference tournaments; for now, we’ll use first place in each league as a stand-in; as well as the next 10 top teams in the Pairwise Rankings (mathematical explainer on how the Pairwise works here).
Today’s field – with odds of making the tournament per CHN’s Pairwise Probability Matrix:
- Boston College (HEA Autobid) – 100%
- Boston University (HEA) – 100%
- North Dakota (NCHC Autobid) – 100%
- Denver (NCHC) – 100%
- Michigan State (Big Ten Autobid) – 100%
- Wisconsin (Big Ten) – 100%
- Minnesota (Big Ten) – 100%
- Quinnipiac (ECAC Autobid) – 100%
- Maine (HEA) – 99.6%
- Providence (HEA) – 78%
- Colorado College (NCHC) – 68%
- UMass (HEA) – 87%
- Michigan (Big Ten) – 69%
- St. Cloud State (NCHC) – 45%
23. RIT (Atlantic Hockey autobid) – 40%
33. Bemidji State (CCHA autobid) – 29%
In the mix for an at large bid but currently on the wrong side of the bubble, with CHN’s projected odds of qualifying:
Western Michigan – 57%
Cornell – 37%
Nebraska-Omaha – 22%
UNH – 14%
Northeastern – 1%
There’s not really a ton of drama left about who is going to get in to the top 14 – Western Michigan is looking to reel in one of St Cloud/Michigan/UMass/CC/Providence, with a few teams – Omaha, UNH, and maybe Cornell – still holding out some hope.
The bigger drama is for the teams in 10th-14th/15th positioning themselves for some insurance in case of upset wins in conference tournaments. If we have an unexpected winner of the ECAC tournament, for example, the Pairwise cut line would move up to 13.
It would not be remotely surprising to see someone from outside the top 14 win the ECAC tournament, and with how strong Hockey East and NCHC are from top to bottom, there are plenty of upset contenders there as well. If you’re sitting at 13th or 14th going in to the conference semis/finals, you’re feeling a little nervous.
Next, we place the four #1 seeds in to regionals based on geography, with the highest-seeded team playing closest to home.
#1 Boston College – Providence regional
#2 BU – Springfield regional
#3 North Dakota – Sioux Falls regional
#4 Denver – Maryland Heights, MO regional
Then, we set the 16-team bracket, first based solely on bracket integrity (1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, etc)
PROVIDENCE REGIONAL
1] BC
33] Bemidji St
8] Quinnipiac
9] Maine
MARYLAND HEIGHTS REGIONAL
4] Denver
13] Michigan
5] Michigan State
12] UMass
SIOUX FALLS REGIONAL
3] North Dakota
14] St Cloud State
6] Wisconsin
11] Colorado College
SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL
2] BU
23] RIT
7] Minnesota
10] Providence
Next, we are required to put host institutions in to the regionals they are hosting. UMass is the host of the Springfield regional, so we have to move them in to that region. They are the only host currently in; Nebraska-Omaha hosts the Sioux Falls regional, something to keep an eye on should they qualify.
We also avoid in-conference match-ups in the first round, unless a conference puts 5+ teams in the tournament and there is no way to avoid an in-conference match-up. Our initial bracket gives us North Dakota-St Cloud as an in-conference match-up, so we have to make a swap.
To get UMass as the 3-seed in Springfield, we swap them with Providence, then flip PC/CC to slightly improve bracket integrity. BU then gets boned a bit as instead of facing RIT, they’d be likely lined up with St Cloud State, as the Huskies can’t face Denver or North Dakota.
New potential bracket:
PROVIDENCE REGIONAL
1] BC
33] Bemidji St
8] Quinnipiac
9] Maine
MARYLAND HEIGHTS REGIONAL
4] Denver
13] Michigan
5] Michigan State
11] Colorado COllege
SIOUX FALLS REGIONAL
3] North Dakota
23] RIT
6] Wisconsin
10] Providence
SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL
2] BU
14] St Cloud State
7] Minnesota
12] UMass
Finally, the committee has the discretion to swap teams within seeding bands to try to improve attendance at regionals. However, they can only swap a 1-seed for a 1-seed (i.e., #2 overall for #4 overall), not, for instance, a 3-seed for a 2-seed (swapping #9 overall and #8 overall).
The initial bracket here honestly shapes out pretty nicely for attendance. BC, QU and Maine should draw a good crowd to Providence. Maryland Heights is not convenient to anybody, but they have the pull of three powerhouse western programs. Sioux Falls will sell out with North Dakota there. Springfield gets BU and UMass. No real problems here.
The only real intrigue for the committee would be if they would move Providence College to the Providence regional to help boost attendance there, despite not being mandated to, as the Friars are not officially the host.
If there is a reasonable way to put the Friars in Providence, I am sure the committee would do it.
However, in this instance, the only real swap they could make would be pretty unreasonable. They would have to have Providence swap with Maine – in theory, only a 1-spot jump in the PWR, but Maine has a significant gap over Providence in RPI and a better record against common opponents, and would be shipped west here to face Wisconsin and potentially North Dakota. That is way too much of a gift from the committee to Providence to be justified, in our opinion.
So we think it would stay like this:
PROVIDENCE REGIONAL
1] BC
33] Bemidji St
8] Quinnipiac
9] Maine
MARYLAND HEIGHTS REGIONAL
4] Denver
13] Michigan
5] Michigan State
11] Colorado COllege
SIOUX FALLS REGIONAL
3] North Dakota
23] RIT
6] Wisconsin
10] Providence
SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL
2] BU
14] St Cloud State
7] Minnesota
12] UMass