It should be an electric night in Minnesota
On Thursday night, the Boston College men’s hockey team will begin its final push towards a national championship. The Eagles will face off against the Michigan Wolverines, another college hockey blue blood, with the winner advancing to the 2024 national championship game on Saturday.
Who: #10 Michigan Wolverines (23-14-3) vs #1 Boston College Eagles (33-5-1)
Where: Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, Minnesota
When: Thursday April 11th, 2024 at 8:30pm ET (7:30pm CT)
How to Watch: Thursday’s semifinal games will be broadcasted and streamed on ESPN2
How to Follow: Follow the game on X (Twitter) by checking in with our live coverage at @bcinterruption
Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Michigan has taken an unexpected path to the 2024 Frozen Four, but college hockey fans of the past few years shouldn’t be all that surprised to see them here. The Wolverines are making their third-straight Frozen Four appearance (under their second head coach) and are bringing back a lot of the same talent that took them this far before. This Michigan team has experience with winning big games, which was exemplified by their ability to grind out tough wins against #6 North Dakota and #4 Michigan State in the NCAA regional.
Although they lost Hobey Baker winner Adam Fantilli to the NHL last offseason, Michigan’s offense has stayed red hot. They rank 3rd in the nation in goals scored per game and they get off the 5th-most shots per game. Instead of being led by a stud Hobey Baker winner like last season, though, Michigan is finding their scoring from a two-headed monster: forwards Dylan Duke and Gavin Brindley. Those two have taken a big step up this season in the absence of Fantilli, ending up in the #1 and #2 slots on the Big Ten goals leaderboard. Duke scored twice in the 4-3 win over North Dakota, and then scored another two goals in their 5-2 win over Michigan State, so he’s the top player that the Boston College defense will be preparing for. But any number of these Wolverines players could pop off on offense, so Eagles’ goalie Jacob Fowler could have his work cut out for him.
The Michigan defense has not been quite as impressive this season, and their goalie Jake Barczewski does not carry them to many wins by himself. UM ranks in the middle of the pack in both Goals Against Average and Shots Allowed/Game. Their defense has gotten exposed in some big games as well, letting up 5 goals in the Big Ten championship game and often relying on their offense to outscore their opponent. They snuck by Notre Dame in the Big Ten quarterfinals, 5-4 and 4-3, while also allowing Minnesota to score 11 total goals in the final weekend of the regular season. But they have had their bright spots at times, including their 2-1 win over Minnesota in the Big Ten semis and then their 5-2 rematch with Michigan State in the NCAA regional final, so the unit can be rather unpredictable.
Photo by Richard T Gagnon/Getty Images
The best player on Michigan’s defense is sophomore Seamus Casey, who leads the team in assists and earned a spot on this season’s All-Big Ten First Team. The Wolverines defense is primarily led by senior captain Jacob Truscott, but Boston College fans are probably more familiar with Truscott’s linemate: Marshall Warren. Warren spent four years at Boston College, serving as team captain for his senior season, but he now dons an ‘A’ on his Michigan sweater. BC fans should all know by now that Marshall is a high-quality, goal-scoring defenseman and an even better leader. He has scored in big spots for his team this year, including goals in both postseason games against #4 Michigan State. Plus he may have a level of unique insight into the Boston College team that could give the Wolverines some sort of advantage on the ice on Thursday. So Eagles fans will definitely want to keep their eye on #77.
How Does Boston College Match Up?
This thing could turn into a shootout if Boston College doesn’t play carefully. Michigan’s powerplay is the most effective in the nation, even more effective than BC’s, while Boston College boasts the most effective penalty kill in the nation. Something’s gotta give on Thursday night, and BC has gotten into a bad habit of committing too many penalties this postseason. They really can’t afford those mistakes against a lethal offense like UM, because even Quinnipiac managed to convert 2/4 powerplay opportunities against the Eagles in the regional.
Other than that, this is a great match-up for Boston College. The Eagles have excelled this season when their top two lines are able to play with space in open ice, and the high-flying Michigan offense is sure to give them plenty of space. Their struggles against Quinnipiac and Michigan Tech were largely results of the style of the defense that those two teams played with an aggressive forecheck and a lot of pressure in the neutral zone, something that is not a strength of the Michigan defense. BC will essentially be betting on the success of their top two lines against the Michigan goalie versus the success of the Michigan offense against Jacob Fowler. I would take the BC side of that bet 10 out of 10 times.
Betting Odds
- Boston College is favored by -1.5 goals (+124)
- Michigan is the underdog by +1.5 goals (-160)
- The over/under for the game is 7 goals
- Boston College (-175) is favored over Michigan (+135) on the moneyline