Boston College Football’s season has turned on its head rather quickly. After jumping out to a 4-1 start, BC has dropped two straight (sandwiched around a bye week) in its start to the heart of its ACC schedule. Next on tap is the Louisville Cardinals visiting Chestnut Hill on Friday night. With BC sitting at +7.5 and the O/U at 53.5, let’s take a look:
The Cardinals are going to put up some points. Head Coach Jeff Brohm is known for his offensive acumen, and his job with this Louisville program — especially on the offensive side of the ball — has been pretty impressive through roughly a season and a half. Journeyman super-senior Tyler Shough, with his third program in his sixth year of college football, has helped to spark Brohm’s heavy passing attack. The Cardinals are passing for 298.6 yards per game, good for 14th in the nation. Shough has already eclipsed the 2,000 yard mark, and he’s thrown for 18 scores to only 3 interceptions. Against BC’s rattled secondary, starting a true sophomore and a true freshman in its cornerback positions, I sense danger. I’m not sure if Max Tucker, Ashton McShane and co. will be able to keep a lid on Shough and his receivers. His favorite weapon is by far WR Ja’Corey Brooks, who has 36 receptions for 679 yards and eight TDs this season. Beyond Brooks, however, are six other weapons with at least 100 yards each. The depth here will put even more pressure on BC’s secondary; I don’t think keying in on Brooks will stop the offense from moving the chains. In the run game, freshman Isaac Brown is the bell-cow back. He’s got 68 carries (no one else has over 23) for 564 yards (averaging 8.3 YPC!) and 4 TDs. The defensive line has to come up big here; they will need to eliminate the run and get to the quarterback to prevent busts in the secondary.
Defensively, Louisville is led by senior defensive end Ashton Gillotte. Though his numbers don’t jump off the page, he is a seasoned, productive veteran who knows how to get to the quarterback. Louisville as a team has recorded 16 sacks so far this campaign, and those have been collected by 11 different players. On the back end, DB Quincy Riley has a pick and M.J. Griffin is second on the team with 38 tackles. None of this will matter, however, if BC’s offense keeps shooting itself in the foot. Poor decisions, fumbles, missed assignments — BC’s offense has been unable to find a rhythm because it seems like every other drive they are dealing with a turnover or major mistake of some sort.
Louisville’s offense scares me. Additionally, the fact that BC came off their bye week and proceeded to get flattened 28-0 in the first half against VT tells me there probably is not a wholesale revival coming soon. I do think O’Brien will have his team more prepared at home on a Friday night, so I don’t think BC gets embarrassed, but I still think Louisville wins comfortably.
Picks: Louisville -7.5, O 53.5