Boston College suffered their first loss of the season and of Bill O’Brien’s head coaching tenure last week, falling to a very good Mizzou squad 27-21. I went 1-1 on the week, as the Eagles covered the 16.5 spread pretty handily but the Under hit by a touchdown. As O’Brien and the team says, however: it’s over. Turn the page. This week features Michigan State coming to Alumni Stadium for the annual Red Bandanna Game. With the spread sitting at BC -6.5 and the O/U at 45.5, let’s get into it.
Michigan State is sitting undefeated at 3-0, and yet ESPN FPI still gives BC an major 78.9% chance of victory. I think there’s a couple factors at play here, but first I want to take a closer look at the Spartans on both sides of the ball and how they match up with the Eagles. Offensively, Jonathan Smith has handed the keys to talented sophomore Aidan Chiles. He’s an athletic 6’2, 216-pound weapon who can make plays with his arm and with his legs. He has not really been used as a true dual-threat option as of yet this season, with only 18 carries in three games (for context TC has 28, and he hasn’t really been unleashed as a runner yet). Make no mistake, however: BC’s linebackers and defensive line will need to prevent Chiles from extending plays with his athleticism. Smith has instead been having Chiles drop back, hang in the pocket and gain traditional passing reps, with mixed results. Chiles has connected on some big splash plays; his leading receiver, Nick Marsh, has only 11 catches but is averaging 21.1 yards per catch. Montorie Foster Jr. is another dangerous weapon, with 13 catches for 113 yards so far this season. However, Chiles has been erratic — his accuracy can waver, and he sometimes gets greedy trying to push the ball downfield. He’s only completing 56.8% of his passes, and he’s already thrown four interceptions on the year. In the run game, Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter have roughly split carries, but through three games they have combined for over 400 yards. I’m extremely excited for this game for a number of reasons, but perhaps the most important is I think we will really learn a lot about BC’s defense. The Eagles were excellent at stopping the run against FSU and Duquesne, but the former is 0-3 and the latter is a bad FCS team. Mizzou at points gained yards at will on the ground against BC. I want to see Ezeiruaku, Horsley and Co. get into the backfield, make Michigan State one dimensional, and force Chiles into some bad decisions. I think the secondary has the capability to matchup with Michigan State’s wideouts, but what I really want to see is the ability to create splash plays and a recommitment to tackling in space (something we struggled with against Mizzou).
On Michigan State’s defense, DB Charles Brantley has two interceptions while DL Khris Bogle has 2.5 sacks. This needs to be a get-right game for the Eagles on offense. Through basically 2.25 games, the Eagles had stuck to the same principles on offense: control the line of scrimmage, protect the football, and take what the defense gives you (whether it be 5-yard check downs, like against FSU, or 50-yard bombs to Reed Harris). At the end of the first half against Mizzou, a turnover (which TC took full responsibility for — an encouraging sign to see) galvanized Mizzou, put BC behind on the scoreboard, and ultimately forced them out of their gameplan. Now, that was against Mizzou — a top 10 team in the country. Michigan State is 3-0, but two of those wins game against lesser competition in FAU and Prairie View. By far their most impressive win is against a decent Maryland squad, but it was by 3 points and could have swung either way. I want to see BC’s offensive line protect the running backs and TC, control the clock, and demoralize the Spartans. That’s when you can air the ball out for the big play.
Michigan State is still somewhat of an unknown. There is high upside but low downside for the Spartans. I think that provides a good recipe for a bounce-back win for the Eagles; I trust O’Brien’s coaching to reestablish the mistake-free fundamentals that worked so well earlier in the season. The Eagles should focus on limiting mental lapses and just allow Michigan State to beat themselves. I expect a clean game from Castellanos, and I think BC’s secondary comes away with the ball at least once. Oh, and the Eagles have the Red Bandanna magic behind them, along with a sold-out (!!) Alumni Stadium in primetime — the first night game for the Eagles since the 2022 season. Give me BC -6.5 and the Over.
Picks: BC -6.5, O 45.5