We’re well into the home stretch of Boston College Football’s 2024 season. With two games left on the schedule, BC needs one more to secure a bowl game in Bill O’Brien’s first year at the helm. With the North Carolina Tar Heels coming to Alumni Stadium, this weekend is probably the best chance for the Eagles to clinch bowl eligibility (before a visit from Pitt). That does not mean it will be easy. With the line sitting at BC +2.5 and the O/U at 56.5, let’s get into it:
The Tar Heels’ offense was thrown into flux in Week 1 by a terrible season-ending injury to QB1 Max Johnson against Minnesota. Head coach Mack Brown, in his second stint at UNC, turned to sophomore Conner Harrell to run his offense — but after an uninspiring showing, it has been senior Jacolby Criswell who won the job. He is not especially flashy or explosive, but he keeps the offense ahead of the chains and minimizes turnovers. Criswell has thrown for 2,003 yards, 12 TDs and only 3 picks since taking over the starting job in Week 3. He is an effective game manager, averaging 7.8 yards per completion and just under a 60% completion percentage. His favorite weapon is downfield target J.J. Jones, who has 28 receptions for 538 yards (over 200 yards more than second-place Kobe Paysour) and 5 TDs, averaging over 18 yards per completion. The Eagles’ secondary is banged up; Coach O’Brien said yesterday that both Max Tucker and Bryquice Brown are day-to-day. If neither can go, we’re looking at true freshman Ashton McShane starting as CB1. However, the Carolina offense revolves around one man: RB Omarion Hampton. Flat-out one of the best backs in the country, Hampton has gone for over 100 yards in every game this season (except a blowout win over Charlotte, where he still turned 11 carries into 77 yards) to go with 14 rushing TDs and another through the air. He’s quick, aggressive, and incredibly difficult to tackle, and he’s coming off a monster 35-carry, 244-yard performance against Wake Forest last week. This game will truly be won or lost in the trenches — BC won’t be able to completely stop Hampton, but the defensive line needs to bring their A-game and make the Heels fight for every rushing yard.
Defensively, former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Keyes has turned this Tar Heels defense into a respectable unit. Do-it-all LB Power Echols adds a little bit of pass rush (0.5 sacks) and pass coverage (5 PDs, 1 interception) while leading the team in tackles. His partner at LB, Amare Campbell, has 5 sacks of his own on the season, while the defensive line features three players with at least six sacks in DE Kaimon Rucker, DL Jahvarie Ritzie and DL Beau Atkinson. In the secondary, seven different players have an interception, led by DB Kaleb Cost with 2. The Tar Heels create a lot of splash plays. After a respectable showing against one of the best run defenses in the country, the Eagles’ O-line will need to dig deep and produce another great performance for BC to have a chance.
The line debuted as a pick’em and has (pretty understandably) shifted to favor UNC. But I actually like the Eagles in this one. Hampton is undoubtedly a major threat and one of the best in the country at his position. However, given the recent struggles and injuries in the secondary, I trust BC’s D-line to stop the run far more than the secondary’s ability to stop the pass. The fact that UNC does not offer an extremely prolific passing attack to balance its run game will hopefully allow BC to stack the box and prevent chunk plays. There has been little word on LB Kam Arnold’s availability, but I’d like BC’s chances even more should they get their veteran leader back at the heart of their defense. On the other side of the ball, I was encouraged by what I saw from Grayson James last week. I want to see him improve his accuracy and cut down on turnover-worthy plays, but he provides enough of a threat (with both his arm and his legs) to keep defenses honest. It feels like BC has finally found their identity by leaning on the power run game with Robichaux and McDonald, with Ward providing a different look and the play action working off the ground game’s success. With the game at Alumni, I like the Eagles in a close one.
Picks: BC +2.5, U 56.5