Will they win 2 games or 12 games? Ask around and you’ll hear both answers
Boston College football is back! After a dramatic offseason that saw head coach Jeff Hafley leave for the NFL and be replaced by former NFL head coach Bill O’Brien, Eagles fans are excited to see what this new era of football has in store. The clock is ticking down to when the Eagles play their first game on Labor Day.
As our BC football content has ramped up here on BCI in recent weeks in preparation for the season, I couldn’t help but notice how many people had many different opinions about how many games we should expect Boston College to win this season. I predicted a 5-7 season being most likely, while the rest of our writing staff was unanimous with their predictions for a 6-6 regular season record. Those predictions are pretty in-line with what is expected nationally (and maybe we’re even being optimistic), as the Vegas sportsbooks have given BC a 4.5 game over/under win total.
But here are just a few reactions that I picked up on in our comments section and on social media:
- “If BC doesn’t win at least 6 games, it’s a huge disappointment.”
- “You think BC can win 6 games? No way. They barely went bowling with a super easy schedule last year.”
- “#ThePath – BC will win 10+ games and make the ACC Championship”
- “I see two or three winnable games, and an uphill battle to win any games beyond that.”
- “BCI is so terrible for setting the expectations so low. How can you call yourself a BC blog?”
With so many people with so many different opinions, it’s been hard to figure out who is actually being reasonable. But these sorts of chaotic attitudes are nothing new, seeing as we just went through a men’s basketball season that ended with many online fans complaining loudly about how disappointing Earl Grant has been and that he should’ve brought us to March Madness last season. This is despite Grant leading BC to their best overall record since 2011 and their two best ACC records since 2011 in the past two seasons. There is no winning with some people who expect Boston College to dominate the competition every season, or else they think something must be going horribly wrong. While in reality, BC has limited resources and it will take a lot of time to build up a contender in any sport (except for maybe hockey).
I’ll stand by what I said and what our writers have predicted: a middling season with an incomplete roster and a first-year head coach.
BC showed enough competency last season that I believe they will be competitive in most of their ACC games in 2024. Wins last year against the likes of SMU, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse at least prove that they are capable of beating any team in the bottom half of the conference. It’s not like Bill O’Brien is taking over a dumpster fire. He’s taking over an up-and-down team that suffered from inconsistent coaching, a weak defense, and an inexperienced QB who didn’t get much prep time in the 2023 offseason. BoB is competent enough to fill in some of what Hafley was lacking and he has kept the roster turnover to a minimum, even if the schedule does get harder this year in some spots. The upcoming games against Virginia, Syracuse, SMU, UNC, Pitt, WKU, and others are definitely winnable, though. And watching FSU drop a bad loss to Georgia Tech this weekend should inspire some confidence that the ACC is wide open! You will have a reason to watch Boston College football this season, and I expect them to win at least a few exciting games.
But on the other side of things, we should be realistic about what we can reasonably expect this team to accomplish by the end of the year. There are no major impact arrivals, no 4-star recruits or big name transfers, on the defensive side of the ball. This leads me to believe that one of the ACC’s worst defenses last season isn’t going to improve by leaps and bounds. I’m hopeful that penalties will decrease, that the new coaching staff will be able to get more out of the defensive line this year, and that standouts in training camp like KP Price are able to make a big impact immediately. But there aren’t any obvious signs pointing towards guaranteed improvement for the BC defense this season.
And the offense, as fun as it can be to watch, will only go as far as Thomas Castellanos can throw the ball. I am praying that Tommy Touchdowns will look better in the pocket after a full offseason of work with offensive guru Bill O’Brien, but it still remains to be seen. I’m not going to count those chickens before we actually see what TC looks like in action, and even if he does show a lot of improvement, I think an 8-win ceiling still seems fairly reasonable given the state of the BC defense. This is not a roster that’s ready to contend for an ACC title, no matter how much you want to believe in #ThePath.
So, in conclusion, my prediction is that BC will not be a dumpster fire this year, nor will they contend for the College Football Playoff. They will have an up-and-down season that will feature a surprising win and an baffling loss at some point, as has become our yearly tradition. So sit back and enjoy watching the beginnings of a new era of the program under Bill O’Brien, and relish in the fact that it’s finally football season. Let’s go!