Defensive discipline headlines Patriots’ X-factors against the Bills

The Patriots will go up against arguably the hottest team in the NFL this week.

The New England Patriots know they are in for quite the challenge in Week 16. Playing on the road in a notoriously tough environment, the team of head coach Jerod Mayo will need to bring its A-game in order to stand a chance against the Buffalo Bills.

The difference in record — 3-11 versus 11-3 — already tells the story of the 2024 season for the two AFC East rivals. Whereas the Patriots have struggled to play consistent football on a week-to-week, heck even on a play-to-play basis, Buffalo has been on a heater recently. Yes, they did lose two weeks ago, but their win over the Detroit Lions last Sunday was nothing short of impressive.

As a result, the Bills are entering their first game against the Patriots this season as possibly the hottest team in the NFL right now. So, what does New England need to do to pull off a major upset? It all starts with the game’s X-factors working in their favor, starting with…

X-factor: Defensive discipline

Yes, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert are all outstanding quarterbacks, but the title of “NFL’s best QB” at the moment belongs to Josh Allen. The 28-year-old has been the catalyst for the Bills all season, and a reason why they are entering Week 16 off eight straight games of at least 30 points.

A true dual-threat player at the most important position on the field, Allen can put stress on any defense due to his ability to make plays both within and outside structure. He is executing coordinator Joe Brady’s offense at a very high level, and more than capable of going through progressions, making reads, and taking what the defense is giving him

However, where he really shines, and not just from an entertainment value perspective, is backyard ball. His improvisational skills are off the charts, and there is nobody better in the league right now at pulling spectacular plays out of thin air.

“He’s playing at an unbelievable level right now,” said Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo this week. “He’s doing a good job seeing the field, has always been dangerous with both his legs and his arm. Just from watching him, the way he’s seeing the field and going through his reads, and the ability to extend plays and turn to street ball is definitely a problem. It’s going to take all of us on the field to try to slow him down first and foremost.”

Mayo hit the nail on the head with his final sentence: the Patriots need to play team defense in order to be able to slow down Allen and company. In order to do that, the entire unit has to be able to be disciplined — something that has not always worked well this season.

“As a defense, obviously you have to play disciplined football,” defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington explained. “You have to do a good job of doing the little things right over and over and over again. Because he can make you pay definitely with the extended plays, using his arm — they have a good running game going on, too. The key for them is really just being disciplined.”

Obviously, Allen and his innate ability to make plays has to be the main focus for the Patriots this week. The more they can keep him within structurer, and confined inside the pocket, the more manageable the task will be as far as its predictability is concerned.

That said, for as good as the MVP frontrunner has been all year, his support system also deserves credit for Buffalo’s offensive production. There, the aforementioned Joe Brady stands out for his ability to manipulate defenses by using motion and play fakes to help create a diverse run game that is among the most productive in the NFL.

The Patriots will have their hands full against the Bills offense led by Brady and Allen, and their recent performances on the defensive side of the ball suggest they might be in for a long day. The run defense in particular needs to take a big step up compared to an embarrassing outing in Arizona last week.

The alternative, frankly, is bleak.

Other X-factors this week

Jerod Mayo and Alex Van Pelt: Last week’s game between the Bills and Lions could have gotten out of hand, but Detroit kept it close by strategically using unusual play designs to challenge Buffalo’s defense and special teams. Those trick plays were not a major part of their game plan, but they did lead to some success and kept the Bills honest throughout the day. The Patriots, of course, have been a rather conservative team under Jerod Mayo, but they too had some success using offensive trickery this season.

If there ever is a week to be aggressive and think outside the box both in terms of overall decision making (Mayo) and offensive play calling (Van Pelt), this is it.

Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper: The Bills defense has performed relatively well against opposing tight ends, ranking 13th in the NFL in DVOA versus that position group (-2.0%). And yet, the Patriots will need to keep their tight ends actively involved this week for one reason in particular: Henry and Hooper are Drake Maye’s most reliable targets, and the two players he seems most comfortable throwing the ball to. In order to find offensive success on Sunday, relying on the bread-and-butter players makes sense.

Interior offensive line: Speaking to the media on Wednesday, Jerod Mayo said the Buffalo defense “really starts with Ed Oliver.” It is not hard to see why given that the veteran defensive tackle is a disruptive player, who will pose a challenge to a Patriots interior O-line that has had its problems at left guard (Layden Robinson) and center (Ben Brown). Keeping Oliver in check will be a tall task, but one that would go a long way toward improved offensive performance.

The play at the three interior spots also will be important for another reason. Buffalo’s defense, after all, has at times been rather leaky in particular versus the between-the-tackle run. For all its problems, New England’s offensive line — as well as running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson — could be able to find some success against the unit.

Whoever is covering Khalil Shakir: In Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, the Patriots’ usage of standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez was curious, to say the least. Instead of having him follow one of Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua throughout the game, the team used him on the perimeter for most of the afternoon — thus rarely having him go up against the Rams’ star receivers. Will Week 16 therefore be a “fool me twice” game for defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington?

Fact is, after all, that Khalil Shakir, the Bills’ most productive pass catcher, is being used similarly to Kupp and Nacua. He is primarily an interior option but does kick out on around a third of his offensive snaps as well. Considering that the Patriots will be down one of their starter-level cornerbacks on Sunday (Marcus Jones), the team might ill-afford using Gonzalez on Shakir on less than 50 percent of plays.

Kyle Dugger: The Patriots made a major investment in Dugger this offseason, but his play lately has not lived up to the price tag. It appears his nagging ankle injury plays a part in that, but as long as he is out on the field he needs to find a way to uphold a certain standard of performance. Returning to that standard on Sunday would be big given that their tight ends — Dalton Kincaid and, to a lesser degree, Dalton Knox — are a big part of the Bills’ offensive operation.

Joey Slye: If the Patriots want to have a realistic shot at leaving Orchard Park with a win, they cannot leave any points on the board. Unfortunately, they have been doing that throughout the year either due to offensive ineptitude or uneven field goal/extra point kicking. Granted, not all of his eight combined misses are his fault, but New England still needs Slye to come through when the team is calling upon him to do so.