There’s been an undeniable change in the winds between the 49ers and WR Brandon Aiyuk in recent days. Aiyuk has been lobbying for a new contract all offseason and up until now the 49ers have steadfastly refused to consider any trade offers for their star receiver. But an avalanche of reports from the beginning of this week has made it clear that San Francisco’s stance has softened.
Things remain up in the air, but it’s possible and perhaps even probable that Aiyuk’s time in San Francisco has just days left.
Why Have The 49ers Changed Their Minds?
NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco was the first to report the 49ers have a framework in place for a trade with both the Browns and the Patriots for Aiyuk. There have been other reports on social media from less official sources about the Steelers being the true favorites to land Aiyuk, reports that have been disputed by more traditional outlets even with the acknowledgment about Pittsburgh being involved.
The major complicating factor in talks is Aiyuk’s desire for a new contract. Any team that trades for Aiyuk has to work out an extension with him first, otherwise they’re just inheriting San Francisco’s problem with a disgruntled player (the Jets have learned that lesson the hard way this offseason with DE Haason Reddick who has held out all offseason and all training camp). In order to swing an Aiyuk trade, a team must put a contract on the table that Aiyuk will accept, and reports have put his asking price north of $30 million per year as the receiver market has boomed this offseason.
Other teams also have to make it worth San Francisco’s while to trade Aiyuk in what could be the final year of their Super Bowl window. Even if Aiyuk hasn’t been practicing, odds are he’s not prepared to walk away from $14 million and would eventually report and play for the 49ers in 2024. The 49ers would have the franchise tag available in 2025 and could work out a trade then, or let him walk and put themselves in line for a compensatory third-round pick.
This is why San Francisco was originally so resolute in rebuffing trade interest in Aiyuk. Even if another team offered a first-round pick, that doesn’t do anything to help the team win the Super Bowl this year. Obviously the 49ers have re-evaluated their stance in recent days. Perhaps with contract talks stalled, the 49ers decided giving Aiyuk a chance to see his market with other teams could clarify the decision for him and perhaps jumpstart a resolution. Would he rather stay in San Francisco for $28 million a year or get $32 million and have to play in a cold weather market and/or for a rebuilding squad?
Another factor could be that interested teams are willing to send a player along with draft picks to help lessen the blow of losing Aiyuk for the 49ers in 2024. Maiocco’s report says the Browns could trade WR Amari Cooper to the 49ers as part of a package for Aiyuk, while New England would include former 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne. With either of those players joining a 49ers skill group that already is in pretty good shape, plus some quality draft picks, plus the cap savings of moving Aiyuk, it’s possible to see how the 49ers could talk themselves into a deal.
What Could A Trade Look Like?
Setting aside — for now — the question of whether it’s prudent for the 49ers to trade Aiyuk rather than just pay him what he’s looking for, here’s a look at what it could take for each team rumored to be in the Aiyuk sweepstakes to convince San Francisco to part with him.
An important assumption for every trade proposal is that it would come with a contract for Aiyuk that is worth more than $30 million a year and probably $80 million in guaranteed money, give or take a few million. That’s a steep price and some teams are better positioned to pay it than others. The plus side is it should allow teams to structure the contract to fit with their existing salary obligations in 2024.
I’m also including potential offers from all four teams that have been linked to Aiyuk so far, even though the Commanders are reportedly not in the running anymore. It’s also possible that another mystery team could jump into the bidding, but for now it seems like if Aiyuk is traded, it will be to one of these teams.
Browns
- Browns send: WR Amari Cooper, a 2025 2nd and a 2025 4th
- 49ers send: Aiyuk and a 2025 5th
Cooper’s inclusion here is what would put this package ahead of any of the others, in my opinion, for the 49ers. While he’s older and not quite as good as Aiyuk, he has seven career 1,000-yard seasons to his name, including a career-high 1,250 yards last year. He’d be able to replace Aiyuk as the No. 1 outside receiver in San Francisco without too much of a dropoff, particularly compared to the other options. That’s imperative for the 49ers’ goal of not damaging their 2024 Super Bowl hopes too much.
Including Cooper would sting for the Browns, though. He’s quickly become a fan favorite in his two years in Cleveland and is one of the best players the Browns have on offense. Cleveland also just reworked his deal a couple of weeks ago, giving him most of his $20 million or so base salary up front as a signing bonus and adding incentives in order to stave off a contract dispute. Unless there’s some sort of cap loophole, all of that money will stay on the Browns’ books, meaning they’d be paying nearly $20 million for Cooper and all the money a new deal for Aiyuk requires.
So why would the Browns even be interested in this deal? For one, there haven’t been many teams who have invested more in the receiver position over the past few years. Since 2021, the Browns have added Anthony Schwartz, David Bell, Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy and Cooper, all with either notable draft capital, a trade or a significant contract. The team continues to move more pass-happy to try and maximize QB Deshaun Watson, and giving him weapons has been a clear priority, especially because some of those players haven’t panned out.
Swapping Cooper out for Aiyuk would give the Browns a better, younger player who is locked up on a long-term deal, as 2024 is the final year of Cooper’s contract. The only difference from Cleveland’s past moves is the cost would be far more exorbitant, but the front office clearly puts a high value on having strong receivers. And Aiyuk goes a long way toward solidifying the room for not just 2024, but 2025 and beyond.
From San Francisco’s perspective, getting a player like Cooper on a veteran minimum contract is big for where their team is now. Finding that kind of production upside for that cheap just rarely happens. In a vacuum, Cooper is probably worth a second-round pick even though he’s 30 years old on an expiring contract, and that could even convince the 49ers to take a third-round pick from the Browns instead of a second.
As for the final part of the deal, Browns GM Andrew Berry has shown he loves a good pick swap, and that’s a way to give the 49ers a little extra kicker to get the deal over the finish line.
Patriots
- Patriots send: 2025 1st, WR Kendrick Bourne, 2026 4th
- 49ers send: Aiyuk, 2025 2nd
Current reports say if the 49ers and Patriots execute a deal, Bourne is expected to be a part of it. Even though the 49ers love Bourne, who played in San Francisco for the first four years of his career overlapping with the start of HC Kyle Shanahan’s tenure, there’s a significant dropoff between him and Aiyuk or Cooper. Bourne’s a tough player with some interesting route-running flashes and a great knowledge of Shanahan’s offense, but his career-best year is 55 catches for 800 yards and five touchdowns. Not to mention, Bourne is rehabbing a torn ACL suffered at the end of last October and has been on the PUP list all camp so far.
The Patriots will have to bring some firepower with the rest of their offer to make up for the difference — unless the 49ers just really really love Bourne. I would guess negotiations between the Patriots and 49ers have revolved heavily around whether New England gives up a first or a second-round pick. Even with Aiyuk, the Patriots are expected to be a rebuilding team this year and would hate to give up what could be a top-ten selection. But if you’re the 49ers, is an early second really enough to part with Aiyuk in the last year of a Super Bowl window?
In this scenario, I’m splitting the difference. The Patriots give up their first-round pick next year, but get back San Francisco’s second, blunting the blow for them while allowing them to improve their receiving corps with a proven commodity. That’s important given how the team struck out on a lot of potential upgrades this offseason and just spent the No. 3 pick on QB Drake Maye.
For the 49ers, this deal gives them another receiver to compete for a role in a group that is still deep if less talented without Aiyuk. It gives them a first-round pick to start to rebalance a roster that has become financially top-heavy with various stars over the past few years. And it clears salary and clarifies the picture for the future.
Steelers
- Steelers send: 2025 1st, WR Van Jefferson
- 49ers send: Aiyuk
Pittsburgh would be one of Aiyuk’s preferred destinations, as he’s indicated a couple of times this offseason, and that has helped keep the Steelers in the mix even after initial trade offers that reportedly weren’t to the 49ers’ liking. Reports from Tuesday indicated Pittsburgh was still trying to get things done and presumably that means increasing the value of the trade package on the table.
There aren’t a lot of obvious fits for players the Steelers would be able or willing to include to offset the loss of Aiyuk for the 49ers. Jefferson makes the most sense because he’s a receiver, has played in a similar offense with the Rams for most of his first four seasons and is on a cheap contract. But some other possibilities could include TE Darnell Washington or DT Keeanu Benton, both players on rookie contract who would fill needs for San Francisco. Steelers S Minkah Fitzpatrick is an interesting possibility to think about to add star power to a star deal, but his age and contract probably would make him less desirable in a trade for the 49ers even if they could use a boost at safety.
The centerpiece of any Steelers offer for Aiyuk is probably going to have to be draft capital, and I could see San Francisco drawing a hard line that if they’re going to give Aiyuk up before they have to, they need a first-round pick from Pittsburgh, particularly since the Steelers are expected to be solid and that pick could end up in the back half of the order.
Commanders
- Commanders send: 2025 2nd, WR Jahan Dotson, 2026 4th
- 49ers send: Aiyuk, 2026 6th
Washington hasn’t figured prominently in the rumors surrounding Aiyuk for a few weeks now, but they were one of the teams on his list with the perk of a reunion with his college QB Jayden Daniels. Anything is possible, including the Commanders getting back in the mix. It’s easy to see the appeal for Washington of pairing Aiyuk with Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin, and they have the luxury to do that while Daniels is still on his rookie contract.
The 49ers would probably push for a first-round pick from the Commanders but Washington is projected to have an early pick in 2025 with plenty of holes still to address, including along both lines of scrimmage. A second could still qualify as a premium pick, with Dotson and a 2026 pick swap sweetening the package for San Francisco.
Dotson was a first-round pick just two years ago by the former regime who has flashed some talent but has been held back by poor quarterback play and, last year especially, his own inconsistency. Dotson is only 5-11 and 182 pounds which is smaller than the 49ers have trended for outside receivers. He’s got solid but not elite speed and is still learning as a route runner even though there have been some decent flashes. His best trait by far is his hands. Dotson is like a vacuum when the ball is in the air and competes for balls he has no business winning at his size.
This trade would give the 49ers another first-round receiver to work into the mix, a premium draft pick in 2025 plus a higher pick in 2026 and some additional cap flexibility. If they can convince the Commanders to give up their first-round pick, it would go from justifiable to a pretty strong return.
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