NFL Sunday is over, but there is still time to make some prop bets for Monday Night Football. The New England Patriots travel up to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a game that will undoubtedly have a massive impact on the AFC East race. This should be a great game, and there is an opportunity to make some money on various betting platforms.
Five Best Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Patriots vs Bills
Underdog Fantasy – Rhamondre Stevenson: OVER 44.5 Rush Yards
The New England Patriots are a run-first team, and they’ll probably try to establish the crap out of the ground game. The Buffalo Bills have one of the best overall defenses in the league, but their rushing defense is a bit weaker than their passing defense. With high winds and cold temperatures expected throughout the night, it’s very safe to project a run-heavy attack for New England.
Wind Advisory for Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming Counties. This begins at 10 p.m. Sunday until 10 p.m. Monday.
Winds will be sustained between 25 to 35 mph and gusts could be as strong as 50 mph. @WGRZ #StormTeam2 pic.twitter.com/W1LlU0dv8k
— Carl Lam (@CarlHLam) December 5, 2021
In terms of actually dividing up the touches, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have had essentially the same workload over the last few weeks. With that in mind, it makes sense to bet the over on whichever running back has the lower prop. In this case, that’s Stevenson with 44.5 rushing yards.
Underdog Fantasy – Jakobi Meyers: UNDER 43.5 Receiving Yards
Monday night is not looking like a good day for former undrafted free agent Jakobi Meyers. In addition to the previously-discussed weather and gamescript issues, the Buffalo Bills have perhaps the best pass defense in football. Their -0.11 EPA/dropback is second to only the Arizona Cardinals, which means the Patriots will probably have trouble moving the ball through the air on the rare occasions they actually throw the ball.
Meyers has the highest receiving prop of any Patriot, which is a good reason to fade him in the first place. However, he’s also clearly been outplayed by Kendrick Bourne in recent weeks. If I’m noticing this, then you can bet Bill Belichick has as well. Bourne will probably eat into some of Meyers’ opportunities moving forward, which makes Meyers’ odds of reaching 44 receiving yards even lower.
Kendrick Bourne is special. What a run after the catch. Wow.
— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) November 28, 2021
Josh Allen: OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards
The New England Patriots have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and the wind will only help New England stop Josh Allen from beating them through the air. It could, however, encourage the mobile quarterback to make plays with his legs. Allen is one of the most dangerous rushers in the league, and New England’s linebackers aren’t exactly the fastest grouping in football. When factoring in Kyle Dugger’s absence, this makes Allen hitting the over on this prop bet all the more probable.
Watching Josh Allen run what was supposed to be a QB power on 3rd and short.. it just confirms what I’ve been thinking QBs are different..And you have to accept what they bring to the table. Some throw for a 1st on 3rd and short.. other run for it. All that matter ls is a 1st tho pic.twitter.com/MRFySdw3rW
— CROCKY
(@Eric_Crocker) November 26, 2021
Pickup – UNDER 45.5 Total Points
Two great defenses playing each other in extreme winds is not a recipe for a high-scoring game. The Bills and Patriots both have the firepower to put up big numbers in perfect conditions, but these will not be perfect conditions. Even if both teams are able to move the ball better than I expect, they’ll probably have to do it via the run. Running the ball effectively leads to longer drives, which means fewer points over the course of the game.
[pickup_prop id=”16243″]
Pickup – Mac Jones: Higher Completion Percentage
Mac Jones spent his collegiate years in Alabama, which means he doesn’t have that much experience with playing in bad weather. Truthfully, his only real experience in this area came during last week’s win over the Tennessee Titans. While it wasn’t his best day at the office, the quarterback still managed to complete an impressive 71.9% of his passes.
Jones is a very accurate passer, and his safe style of play naturally lends itself to a higher completion percentage. Allen, meanwhile, is more willing to pass up the easy completions for big plays downfield. For the sake of this bet and this bet alone, that style of play is not what you want in a quarterback.
[pickup_prop id=”16159″]
Main photo:
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