The New England Patriots (3-11) and the Buffalo Bills (11-3) meet Sunday in a Week 16 game at Highmark Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Patriots vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Patriots suffered a 30-17 loss at the Arizona Cardinals Dec. 15, failing to cover as 6-point underdogs while the Over (46) cashed. New England is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past 4 games, while the Over has cashed in each outing. New England has allowed 25 or more points in each game.
The Bills outlasted the Detroit Lions 48-42 as a 2.5-point underdog in a marquee battle at Ford Field Sunday in Week 15 as the Over (55.5) cashed. Buffalo has won 6 of the past 7 games, while going 4-1 ATS in the past 5 and 7-2 across the previous 9 outings.
The Over is on a 5-0-1 run for the Bills, while going 7-1-1 in the past 9 outings. Buffalo is averaging 45.0 points per game (PPG) in the past 2 games, while allowing 43.0 PPG in the span. The Bills have 30+ points in 8 consecutive games, tying an NFL record.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Patriots at Bills odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 11 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Patriots +650 (bet $100 to win $650) | Bills -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Patriots +14 (-110) | Bills -14 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Patriots at Bills key injuries
Patriots
- S Kyle Dugger (ankle, illness) questionable
- RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle) out
- CB Marcus Jones (hip) out
- FS Jabrill Peppers (hamstring) questionable
- OG Cole Strange (knee) questionable
- OT Caedan Wallace (ankle) out
- DE Keion White (groin) questionable
Bills
- CB Rasul Douglas (knee) questionable
- S Damar Hamlin (rib) questionable
- LB Matt Milano (biceps, groin) questionable
- S Taylor Rapp (neck) questionable
- WR Curtis Samuel (rib) questionable
- LB Baylon Spector (calf) questionable
- LB Dorian Williams (elbow) questionable
FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+
Patriots at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 36, Patriots 16
Moneyline
The Bills (-1000) will cost you 10 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward. If you want to risk $100 for every $10 in profit, that’s your prerogative, but it’s not a recommended betting strategy over the long term.
PASS.
Against the spread
The BILLS -14 (-110) have wrapped up the AFC East title, but they’re still technically in the mix for the No. 1 overall seed for the playoffs. And, Buffalo is aiming for NFL history with a ninth consecutive game with 30 or more points. It should be able to win in Week 16 to stay in the mix for the top seed depending upon what the Kansas City Chiefs do.
The Patriots +14 (-110) have been pesky, playing 4 one-score games in the past 7 outings. However, New England is just 1-3 ATS in the past 4 outings, and it is 0-2 ATS in the past 2 tries as an underdog of 7.5 or higher.
Over/Under
OVER 46.5 (-110) is worth a look in this AFC East battle.
The Over has connected in 4 in a row for the Patriots, with New England allowing 25 or more points in each outing. And, as mentioned, the Bills have scored 30+ in each of the past 8 outings. The Bills could do most of the heavy lifting to get this one across the line.
And, if you were concerned about weather, there won’t be any precipitation in the forecast, although temperatures will be frigid and in the teens. That shouldn’t slow down 2 northern teams, however.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.