New England has struggled on the ground all year long, and the last two weeks in particular.
In 2023, the New England Patriots fielded one of the best run defenses in the NFL. In 2024, they very much do not.
After ranking first in the league in yards per carry (3.3) and second in both expected points added per run (-0.187) and success rate (34.0%) last year, the team has regressed to a below-average unit across the board. Through 15 games this season, New England is ranked 19th (4.5) as well as 21st (-0.051 and 41.2%) in those same categories.
Their run defense will likely be tested this week as well. At least, that is what the Patriots expect to happen on Saturday against the Los Angeles Chargers.
“This league is a copy-cat league, which means everybody does the same thing,” said defensive lineman Deatrich Wise Jr. “There are some things that we haven’t stopped yet, so they’re going to start to continue doing the same things. Our job is to shut down early and make this team one-dimensional.”
Head coach Jerod Mayo also shared that sentiment during a press conference on Tuesday.
“As the weather changes and they’re coming out this way, I expect them to try to run the ball, especially how we looked last week,” Mayo said. “That’s the challenge to the players: they’re going to come in here, it’s no secret, they’re going to want to run the ball. We have to stop them and make them a one-dimensional team.”
Statistically, the Chargers’ run game does not stand out. Using the three categories mentioned above, we can see that L.A. is ranked 25th in yards per run (4.1), 19th in EPA (-0.097) and just 30th in success rate (36.0%).
However, within the context of their offense — a group led by Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback Justin Herbert — the Chargers’ run game could very well become a problem for New England.
“They’re very talented across the board up front, and I think they work very well together, especially in the run game,” said Mayo.
“There is a huge Baltimore Raven-type of flavor to this entire staff, and even the players. You look at the backs that they have, a couple of them came from Baltimore. We’ve gone against Greg Roman multiple times over the years. He’s a very good coordinator, very experienced. He’s going to exploit your weaknesses, and I think they do a good job with that.”
Stopping the run has been the Patriots’ defensive weakness all year, and particularly the last two weeks. Against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15, New England surrendered 164 yards and an average of 5.3 yards per carry; against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, the team gave up 172 yards and an abysmal 6.1 yards per run.
For the Patriots to turn the ship around the last two weeks of the season, starting Saturday, they need to manufacture a full turnaround. How do they plan to do that?
“The key on every defensive play is bringing the punch to them,” said Wise Jr. “My mindset, mostly on the front seven, is bringing that punch to them, establishing our dominance, resetting the line of scrimmage, and playing in the backfield. That’s really the key that we always talk about every single week as a front seven.”
Lately, that key has not worked for the Patriots. If they want to beat the Chargers on Sunday, though, and prevent another disappointing outing against the run, they need to figure something out.