Patriots offense needs to win on early downs to neutralize versatile Cardinals pass rush

New England cannot leave itself exposed in obvious passing situations.

Coming off arguably its best performance of the season, the New England Patriots offense will get an opportunity to keep building momentum heading into the homestretch of the regular season. Their opponent this week, after all, is in the midst of an up-and-down season on the defensive side of the ball.

The Arizona Cardinals are ranked 13th in the league giving up an average of 22.2 points per game, but their defensive output is largely nothing to write home about. From that perspective, the unit coordinated by Nick Rallis could be a welcome matchup for New England.

However, statistics by themselves do not mean a defense will or won’t be a challenge.

One particular area worth mentioning is Arizona’s pressure game. While the team ranks only 28th in the NFL in pressure rate (18.9%), it has gotten to the quarterback 34 times so far this season — 12th in a league-wide comparison. The secret behind that is an aggressive and versatile scheme capable of making life hard on offenses, especially ones prone to inconsistent play such as New England’s.

“I think one of the big things as you watch their defense is just versatility. You just don’t know where those guys are going to line up. They have outside linebackers that can drop, outside linebackers that can rush,” said head coach Jerod Mayo on Wednesday.

“You have a safety in Budda Baker who really, he makes the whole engine go. He’ll be in the box, he’ll blitz off the edge, he also can play in the middle of the field. A very versatile player, a very good player. Going to the linebackers, really Zaven [Collins] has done a good job as an on-the-ball backer; and I would also say Mack Wilson’s playing pretty well for them.”

For the Patriots, two things will be in focus this week. Avoiding obvious passing situations by limiting unsuccessful plays on first and second downs, and being on point in pass protection whenever the defense pins its ears back.

What the latter will look like is anybody’s guess given that starter-level linemen Cole Strange and Caedan Wallace might make their comebacks on Sunday; adding Strange to the mix in particular — either at center or left guard — might help the unit improve. Putting the group in favorable situations regardless of configuration ultimately will come back to performance on early downs.

And to its credit, led by coordinator Alex Van Pelt and rookie quarterback Drake Maye has found some success lately.

Since Maye took over as starting quarterback in Week 6, the Patriots are ranked 23rd in expected points added per play on first and second downs (-0.040) and 16th in success rate (42.8%). Those numbers are not overly impressive per se, but a clear improvement compared to a Jacoby Brissett-led unit ranking 29th (-0.114) and 24th (39.6%) in those same categories between Weeks 1 and 5.

If we isolate only the last month of play — i.e. from Week 10 on — we can see that the Patriots are ranked even better. With Maye growing into his own and the running game also finding its rhythm again, New England is now above the average in both EPA per play and success rate: the team is ranked 14th (0.041) and 12th (46.5%) in the respective categories.

Against a defense like Arizona’s, continuing this upward trend will be key. That is particularly true given that Rallis’ defense has been below-average in those same metrics; the unit is ranked 21st in EPA/play since Week 10 (0.063) and 26th in success rate (47.2%).

While early-down performance alone will not decide about win or loss, it would make the Patriots’ life a lot easier on the offensive side of the ball on Sunday.