The Patriots will visit one of the best teams in the NFL on Sunday.
For almost two decades, the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills found themselves in one of the most lop-sided division rivalries in the NFL. The Patriots under head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady dominated their fellow AFC East team year in and year out, at one point winning 15 straight games.
Oh, how the times have changed.
Brady’s departure in 2020 and the Bills’ emergence while led by Sean McDermott and Josh Allen at head coach and quarterback, respectively, perfectly coincided. As a result, the Bills are now the dominant team in the division and their rivalry with the Patriots.
While New England has been able to steal some games along the way, there is no doubt about which franchise is in a better position right now and has been for the last few seasons. With that in mind, let’s take a look at where the Bills stand in 2024 and with their first matchup against the Patriots this year coming up.
Bills 2024 stats
Their impressive victory over the Detroit Lions last Sunday only confirmed Buffalo’s status as possibly the best team in the NFL at the moment. The numbers they have posted throughout the season suggest so, too.
Record: 11-3 (1st AFC East)
Offense: 31.8 points/game (2nd), 369.6 yards/game (7th), 0.220 EPA/play (1st), 48.5% success rate (5th)
Defense: 22.1 points/game (12th), 345.5 yards/game (23rd), 0.004 EPA/play (14th), 44.0% success rate (16th)
Scoring differential: +135 (2nd)
Turnover differential: +18 (t-1st)
The final two numbers presented here really tell the story of the Bills so far.
They have been winning by sizable margins over the first 15 weeks of the season — beating opponents by an average of almost 10 points a game — while limiting their mistakes; their 7 giveaways are the best mark in the league, with their 25 takeaways ranked fifth. For comparison, New England is 17th (18) and 28th (11) in those two categories as well as tied for 25th overall (-7).
Of course, the turnover differential is only one piece of the puzzle. Buffalo’s offense has been one of the best in football — and the best when measured by expected points added per play — all year, while their defense has also performed at a solid-enough level.
If there is a weakness on that team, one would point to that defense. Some, such as the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14, have successfully put pressure on the unit this year. Given the potency on the other side of the ball, that seems to be the best chance teams have at challenging the Bills at the moment.
Bills 2024 season
As noted above, the Bills are entering Week 16 as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Even though they are currently on just a one-game win streak, they have played some successful football this season:
Week 1: 34-28 win vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 2: 31-10 win at Miami Dolphins
Week 3: 47-10 win vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 4: 35-10 loss at Baltimore Ravens
Week 5: 23-20 loss at Houston Texans
Week 6: 23-20 win at New York Jets
Week 7: 34-10 win vs. Tennessee Titans
Week 8: 31-10 win at Seattle Seahawks
Week 9: 30-27 win vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 10: 30-20 win at Indianapolis Colts
Week 11: 30-21 win vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: 35-10 win vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 14: 44-42 loss at Los Angeles Rams
Week 15: 48-42 win at Detroit Lions
Besides a slump in Weeks 4 and 5, the Bills have cruised through most of their schedule this season. Their offensive output in particular stands out, with Buffalo entering Week 16 having scored 30-plus points in eight straight games, tying the longest such streak in NFL history. Only one of those games — a 44-42 game in Los Angeles in Week 14 — ended in defeat.
As a result of their record, the Bills remain alive in the race for the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC and its associated first-round bye. At the moment and despite owning the head-to-head advantage, however, they are still trailing the 13-1 Chiefs. A win on Sunday against the Patriots would be crucial if they hope to still close the gap over the last three weeks of the season.
Bills updated 53-man roster
(Note: Roster up-to-date as of Dec. 18, 5 a.m. ET; *indicates projected starter)
Quarterback (2): Josh Allen* (17), Mitchell Trubisky (11)
Running back (4): James Cook* (4), Ty Johnson (26), Ray Davis (22), Reggie Gilliam (41 | FB)
Wide receiver (5): Khalil Shakir* (10), Keon Coleman* (0), Amari Cooper (18), Curtis Samuel (1), Mack Hollins (13)
Tight end (3): Dalton Kincaid* (86), Dawson Knox* (88), Quintin Morris (85)
Offensive tackle (4): Dion Dawkins* (73 | LT), Spencer Brown* (79 | RT), Ryan Van Demark (74), Tylan Grable (68)
Interior offensive line (5): David Edwards* (76 | LG), Connor McGovern* (66 | C), O’Cyrus Torrence* (64 | RG), Alec Anderson (70), Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62)
Interior defensive line (6): Ed Oliver* (91), DaQuan Jones* (92), Austin Johnson (98), DeWayne Carter (90), Jordan Phillips (97), Quinton Jefferson (71)
Defensive edge (5): Greg Rousseau* (50), A.J. Epenesa* (57), Von Miller (40), Dawuane Smoot (94), Javon Solomon (56)
Linebacker (6): Matt Milano* (58), Terrel Bernard* (43), Dorian Williams (42), Baylon Spector (54), Joe Andreessen (44), Edefuan Ulofoshio (48)
Cornerback (6): Christian Benford* (7), Rasul Douglas* (31), Taron Johnson* (7), Kaiir Elam (5), Ja’Marcus Ingram (46), Brandon Codrington (29 | PR | KR)
Safety (4): Taylor Rapp* (9), Damar Hamlin* (3), Cam Lewis (39), Cole Bishop (24)
Specialists (3): Tyler Bass (2 | K), Sam Martin (8 | P | H), Reid Ferguson (69 | LS)
Any discussion about the Bills needs to start and end with quarterback Josh Allen. One of the best players his position has to offer, as well as a potential future Hall of Famer, Allen is playing at his highest level to date — a terrifying outlook for a Patriots defense that has had its fair share of issues across the board.
Allen is the front runner for league MVP this season due to his impressive playmaking ability as both a passer and runner. Completing 275 of 427 pass attempts this season (64.4%), he has gained 3,395 yards through the air and thrown 25 touchdowns versus only 5 interceptions. In addition, he has carried the ball on 83 non-kneel-down plays for a gain of 492 yards — an average of 5.9 yards per carry — and 11 more scores.
To further illustrate just how good Allen has been this season, let’s use EPA per play as a metric. His number in that category — 0.341 — tops the league by a significant margin. How significant? The difference between him and second-placed Lamar Jackson is about as big as the difference between Jackson and fourth-ranked Jordan Love.
While Allen is the engine that powers the Bills, he is not the only part of the car. His supporting cast has also stepped up in Year 1 after standout wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
At running back, James Cook is the name to watch. The Bills’ RB1, Cook is the team leader in scrimmage yards (1,060) and touchdowns (14). He is averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry — this number (plus Allen taking only 13 sacks on the year) speaks not just for him but the blockers in front of him: led by perennial Pro Bowl tackle Dion Dawkins, the Bills’ offensive line is among the best and most consistent in football.
Going back to the Diggs-less receiver group, the Bills’ ability to spread the wealth stands out. In total, nine players have at least 200 receiving yards on their season résumés. Tops among them is Khalil Shakir, who is leading Buffalo in receptions (71) and receiving yards (71). The leader in the touchdown category, meanwhile, is big-bodied red zone weapon Mack Hollins (5).
On the other side of the ball, two linemen present a definitive problem. The first is outside linebacker Greg Rousseau, whose 7.5 sacks and 59 total quarterback pressures lead the team; able as a pass rusher and run defender, Rousseau is showing why Buffalo was smart to pick up his fifth-year contract option for 2025.
The other player worth noting is Ed Oliver. While not as impressive in the sacks category (2.0), his disruptive potential up the middle is significant and a big part of Buffalo’s defensive success. He is ranked second with 34 pressures on the year.
At the second level, the Bills welcomed back stalwart linebacker Matt Milano in late November. However, even his absence due to a torn biceps suffered in training camp did not hurt the overall unit too much: fellow off-ball defenders Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams, the latter being one of the best No. 3 ‘backers in the game, successfully picked up the slack. Obviously, though, the unit is a better one with its leader in the middle.
The secondary, meanwhile, contains some big play potential. Six different players are sharing the team lead with two interceptions each — a group that does not even include Buffalo’s No. 1 cornerback, Christian Benford. He, together with standout nickel Taron Johnson and offseason trade acquisition Rasul Douglas are forming a quality trio at the position that is supported by a solid if not necessarily elite safety group.
Bills reserve lists
Practice squad (16): DT Eli Ankou, S Lewis Cine, OL Will Clapp, CB Te’Cory Couch, TE Zach Davidson, OL Mike Edwards, RB Frank Gore Jr., OT Richard Gouraige, WR K.J. Hamler, CB Daequan Hardy, S Micah Hyde, S Kareem Jackson, DT Zion Logue, WR Tyrell Shavers, WR Jalen Virgil, QB Mike White
Practice squad international (1): ED Kingsley Jonathan
Injured reserve (3): QB Shane Buechele, OT Travis Clayton, OT Tommy Doyle
One of the Bills’ biggest strengths this season is their ability to avoid long-term injuries. A look at their injured reserve list, which stands at only three players deep, shows this: none of the players on IR are of major consequence. While the team did suffer its bumps and bruises along the way — including starting linebacker Matt Milano opening the year on injured reserve — it mostly stayed healthy at key positions as of late.
As for the rest of their reserves, Buffalo’s safety depth stands out. Beyond the four safeties on their 53-man roster, they also have plenty of experience on the practice squad: Micah Hyde, Kareem Jackson and Lewis Cine have appeared in a combined 399 games in the NFL.
Bills coaching staff
Head coach: Sean McDermott
Coordinators: Joe Brady (OC), Bobby Babich (DC), Matthew Smiley (ST)
The Bills’ coaching staff underwent some turnover this offseason, with new coordinators getting installed on both offense and defense. Offensively, Joe Brady’s status was updated from “interim” to “full time” OC following the 2023 in-season dismissal of Ken Dorsey. On defense, linebackers coach Bobby Babich was given the title after it was not used the previous year.
Of course, Sean McDermott is also heavily involved on that side of the ball. A former defensive coordinator in Philadelphia and Carolina, he has served as Buffalo’s head coach since 2017. His teams have gone 84-44 in the regular season (.656) with five division titles in a row, and 5-6 (.455) in six postseason trips.