What to expect from Drake Maye in his debut as Patriots starting quarterback

The rookie will start his first career game on Sunday against the Texans.

The time has finally come. With momentum building behind the scenes, the New England Patriots have decided to make their much-anticipated change at quarterback.

Jacoby Brissett, who started the first five games of the season and captained a unit that ranked 31st in the NFL in scoring, has been benched in favor of Drake Maye. The third overall selection in the 2024 draft will make his first career start on Sunday against the visiting Houston Texans.

One of the most intriguing quarterback prospects to enter the league this year due to his combination of high-end arm talent, natural athleticism and build, Maye gives the Patriots offense a ceiling theoretical higher than the one Brissett could provide. That we know. What is uncertain at this point in time is how effectively the rookie will be in coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s offense, both this week and beyond.

The answer will come on the field, starting Sunday against a Texans team ranked 17th in the NFL in scoring defense (22.8) and 16th in defensive expected points added per play (-0.024). However, throughout training camp, preseason and Maye’s first in-game appearance in Week 3 we saw hints of what could be expected.

Unsurprisingly, any preview has to start with his rare athleticism and ability to improvise.

One of the biggest concerns with inserting Maye into the starting lineup is the state of the Patriots offensive line. To say that the unit has struggled so far, especially in pass protection, would be an understatement: Brissett was under pressure on 48.3 percent of his dropbacks in his five starts, according to Next Gen Stats.

Houston’s defense, for comparison, has pressured opposing QBs on 42 percent of their called pass plays. On paper, the matchup heavily favors the visiting team: not only is the Texans’ pass rush one of the best in the league, it also will be going up against an offensive line that has proven itself incapable of keeping its quarterback clean. The inexperienced Maye adds another variable to the mix.

That said, his aforementioned athletic traits might actually help out the O-line versus Houston. His ability to turn into a runner and serve a dual-threat role differentiates him from Brissett; while the veteran did make some solid plays with his legs, his skillset is markedly different from Maye’s.

This showed up in the pressure he faced, too. While Brissett did a good job preventing his own pressure early on in the season, he seemingly — and understandably — got a bit more antsy in the pocket as the season went along.

Maye, on the other hand, brings a clean slate. And while he lacks the experience Brissett possesses, he has shown some ability beyond his physical gifts that should help him counteract the Texans’ pass rush.

Maye being able to anticipate both throwing windows and pressure lanes, and react accordingly, is a skill he will need at the next level. That was, for comparison, something his predecessor as “the next guy” in the quarterback room, Mac Jones, was never able to develop to a high enough level to help him overcome his physical limitations.

It goes without saying that Maye has yet to show he can do all that at a consistent level. However, his margin for error at this early stage of his development is bigger due to the other traits he possesses.

Those traits will also have a trickle-down effect on the offense as a whole, starting with the offensive line.

Having a viable dual-threat passer in the backfield should make the unit’s job easier, because teams will have to account for his running ability on top of his superior arm talent compared to Brissett. As a result of that, Alex Van Pelt might also put some designed quarterback runs, RPOs, or roll-out plays to move the launch point in the game plan in hopes of lifting pressure off the O-line’s collective shoulders as well.

In addition, Maye will be lining up behind a line that showed some marginal improvement in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins. It also is expected to start the same five players for the first time all season.

With the offensive line potentially less of a factor, New England’s offense also might change how it operates in terms of target areas in the passing game.

The Patriots’ passing attack never showed much potential being run by Brissett. That was especially true when it came to attacking the deep parts of the field, and throwing the ball outside the numbers.

Obviously, there are a lot of factors going into that — arm talent and willingness to attack the perimeter is one thing, the offensive line holding up long enough to let those plays develop is another. There is no telling whether the Patriots will actually show improvement and spread the ball out more, even though on paper they might find opportunity to.

Maye, after all, is simply better suited to execute a spread-out attack than Brissett. As a consequence, New England’s primary outside targets could expect an uptick of catchable targets: Ja’Lynn Polk, Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne should be beneficiaries of the change at quarterback (something that also is true for slot DeMario Douglas and depth wideouts Tyquan Thornton and Javon Baker; a rising tide lifts all the boats).

Maye has shown he can hit sideline and back-shoulder shots, release the ball with anticipation, and extend plays with his legs. In an ideal world, he would therefore add another dimension to New England’s attack.

This could also impact how defenses try to defend the Patriots. With Brissett under center, the book on how to beat the Patriots offense was pretty much out there: stack the box versus the run, run blitzes and line games to overwhelm the offensive line, and make the QB speed up his process to challenge his accuracy and processing.

Now, there is no telling whether that formula will still work. There is an element of surprise to Maye entering the lineup that impacts both sides of the ball.

All that being said, expectations still need to be realistic: he is a rookie player making his first career start who has a total of 16 regular season snaps under his belt so far.

The Patriots and their offensive coordinator will try to mask his limitations versus a strong Texans pass rush, and make him comfortable operating the offense. This will likely mean significantly more shotgun snaps than under center plays — 15 of his 16 snaps in his first game in Week 3 came in shotgun — as well as incorporating other elements to help protect Maye as best as they can.

Sunday’s game might see an uptick in roll-out plays and designed quarterback runs, more play-action, more pistol formation, and a focus on the quick game over longer-developing concepts. New England might also try to simplify his reads as best as possible, without scaling the offense back too much.

“The biggest thing is me playing on time, playing in rhythm, and trusting the guys around me,” Maye said on Wednesday. “I think the game plan is not going to change. Obviously, you got a rookie quarterback going out there, but at the same time, what we do on offense is what we do on offense.”

Maye has now spent five months in that offense, and gone through one full training camp, three preseason games, and five weeks of regular season preparation. His grasp of the system, and by extension his understanding of playing quarterback at an NFL level, have continued to develop throughout all that time and experience.

Maye will still experience his fair share of growing pains despite all that. He will miss throws, make bad reads, and bring himself and the offense into trouble; that’s part of the deal when handing him the keys to the offense (even though those same issues also ended up being Brissett’s undoing as QB1).

Still, the Patriots have determined that now is the point in his development for him to make those experiences. If nothing else, there will be a purpose to the struggle now.