But what will happen in 2025?
2024 In One Sentence
While he better controlled hard contact, Nick Pivetta’s sharp downturn in his stunning 2023 ability to miss bats and generate swings and misses may mark the final nail in the coffin for his tumultuous tenure in Boston.
The Positives
Was 2024 better for Pivetta than a largely improved 2023 season? No, it was not. But there were definitely some positive moments and improvements in places for one of Boston’s most controversial players (talent-wise).
The thing is, Pivetta improved his hard-hit rates across all of his pitches, and decreased the average exit velocity on each of his pitches besides his curveball (on which he relied too much). He averaged a one MPH decrease across all pitches, which definitely doesn’t seem — or feel — like much, but it led to a 20 percentage point change in his percentile status in the statistic. While his mark went from the 12th percentile in 2023 to the 32nd percentile in 2024, it’s still a significant improvement as his 89.4 average exit velocity was not only his lowest mark since he’s been in Boston, but the lowest of his career. His hard-hit % saw a similar dip, and while he’s still in the 48th percentile for the mark, it’s a sound improvement from 2023’s 17th percentile.
And his xERA was actually 14 percentage points better than it was in 2023, according to Baseball Savant (expected 3.98 in 2023, 3.51 in 2024). While neither of those numbers is probably ideal for many of you, I will just tell you this: Nick Pivetta is never going to be a number one or two starter in probably any respectable Major League rotation… and this is coming from OTM’s resident Nick Pivetta enthusiast. But his 4.14 ERA in 2024 was respectably close to the average league ERA (4.07), and Savant ranks his pitching run value as completely average: as he ended the season directly at the 50th percentile marker.
And average is exactly the kind of thing you can expect with Pivetta, and with the potential upside he showed with his Whiff percentage and strikeout numbers in 2023, I think a floor of average is a risk a struggling Red Sox rotation can take to fill its back end or to slot Pivetta in as a long opener/reliever.
The Negatives
His great strikeout and whiff numbers from 2023 did not translate into 2024. His K rate was still in the top 12% in the majors but dropped 5% from the season before. The thing that really hurt him though was the staggering drops in both his whiff rate and chase rate, which both dropped 24%. While his 2023 numbers were a vast improvement from anything he’s posted in his career, we were certainly hoping to see these numbers stick throughout another season. The sweeper he began to develop at the end of 2023 was picked up better by batters throughout 2024, and, as previously mentioned, his curveball took a big dip in efficiency. With this sweeper development, I honestly don’t think the two pitches were different enough to effectively blend together for Pivetta, who already had a rather consistent curveball. His sweeper, curve and randomly sprinkled slider were all grouped relatively closely in terms of their movement profiles as his curveball had less vertical drop in 2024 while his sweeper and curve moved in in terms of horizontal break.
Another thing, which can be seen on his pitch arsenal heatmaps on Savant, was that the curve moved from a down and away to righties pitch to really a down-middle (at best) pitch.
His slider is really an outlier pitch with how little he deployed it, but it completely switched movement planes from how it profiled in 2023 and was generally left over the plate much more in 2024.
Best Moment
In my mind, there are so many great Nick Pivetta moments to look back on, and unfortunately, most of them involve him being on the losing end of a battle.
But without a doubt (for me), Pivetta’s best moment in 2024 was his May 30th start against the Tigers when he tied Roger Clemens’ club record of eight straight strikeouts.
Nick Pivetta ties a @RedSox franchise record with eight consecutive strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/swB43Y8p40
— MLB (@MLB) May 31, 2024
That sweeper/slider break finishing in an actually good location? Beautiful.
The signature turn and scream coming off the mound? Breathtaking.
I remember this game incredibly vividly. I was stuck in traffic on southbound I-25 during rush over driving home (to Colorado Springs) from Denver, listening to an absolutely fantastic call by Joe Castiglione, whose excitement would palpably build after each strikeout. I think listening to this game on WEEI, something I rarely do since I’m not in the Boston area, in Castiglione’s last season at the helm made this moment extra special. A great moment from my favorite player announced by one of the world’s most passionate broadcasters.
The Big Question
Will he accept Boston’s qualifying offer?
2025 and Beyond
For the first time in his career, Pivetta is a free agent. The honest truth is that I have not the slightest clue on whether or not he’ll accept the qualifying offer come Tuesday at 4 p.m.
The $21.05 million QO is nearly triple his 2024 salary, but there have been credible reports that he plans to opt out. I would not be surprised if he does so, especially considering the weak nature of this year’s starting FA class. He’s had conversations with teams during this waiting period, and if someone were to offer him somewhere around(ish) that ~$21 million AAV on a multiyear deal, he will not be accepting Boston’s offer.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to take the considerable one-year raise and use 2025 as a “prove it” year to secure something more long-term (probably Sean Manaea/Eduardo Rodriguez-ish) for what could either be a true peak or a slow career decline.
Either outcome makes sense for him, and the Red Sox are clearly interested in bringing him back (as they demonstrated with the extension of the QO), but wouldn’t be hurt too much if he doesn’t accept the qualifying offer and whoever decides to sign him will give one or two draft picks to Boston for compensation. As his biggest fan, I would like to see him back in a Red Sox uniform, but I hope he chooses whatever is best for him, both fiscally and personally. He knows he’ll always have a fan in me, and either way, the Nick Pivetta goodbye or Nick Pivetta thank you letter will be written.