Is he the a newly minted ace?
2024 In One Sentence
After some early career tribulations, Tanner Houck leaned into his newfound sweeper, discovered durability thought unimaginable previously, improved on some shortcomings, and had arguably absolutely the best season of his career in 2024 to prompt discussions of an extension.
The Positives
As if that previous sentence wasn’t enough of a clue as to where this article may go, I, along with much of Red Sox nation, really bought into a vision of Tanner Houck as a long-term starter this season. The former first-round pick recorded a 3.9 WAR, which almost matched his career total combined, and notched 178 2⁄3 innings across 30 starts, missing only some time in September due to shoulder fatigue, which, well, given the state of the rest of the team’s health (*broadly gestures*) you can’t complain much about. Almost no one is better at inducing ground balls than Houck, who Savant rates as 93rd percentile in the stat. Andrew Bailey also had Houck tothrow his sweeper more – 41.4% of the time, which is even more than he threw his slider the year before (38.2%).
For those whose names are not Jacob Roy and don’t spend most of their time analyzing pitches, I’ll put it in layman’s terms: he exchanged a little bit of velocity on this pitch for movement that allows it to break more horizontally thanvertically, which, in part, allowed the TOTAL sum of his pitches that found the strike zone to increase by about 2% from 2023. This slight mechanical change, and his determination and continued ability to get guys to ground out to end innings, led to a career-best in ERA (3.12, not counting 2020, where he pitched just 17 innings) and saw three fewer balls leave the ballpark despite the fact that he pitched 70 more innings. And while we’re at it, he toughed out the orbital fracture that subsequently took a chunk out of his 2023 campaign, an injury that causes a lot of pitchers as talented as Houck to get squeamish at certain ball trajectories. That’s a huge statement on Houck as a pitcher and, just as importantly, his toughness. Simply put: there was a LOT to like about Houck’s 2024 season, culminating in him earning his first career All-Star selection.
The Negatives
Balls still are leaving the ballpark, although not an an alarming rate (next to Kutter Crawford’s league-leading number, 11 home runs doesn’t seem too bad). His K-rate has also stagnated at 20.7%, good for 40th percentile in the league. There are two more things of note about Houck adjusting to becoming a long-term starter: the miles on the engine perhaps got to him in the summer, as Houck saw his ERA balloon from 2.54 to 4.23 in the second half of the season, when batters also slugged higher against him to the tune of 100 points, seen here:
Speaking of Houck retiring batters late, there’s also a lingering issue that continued in 2024: batters fare much better the third time they face him. This is super evident in these splits, where his ERA reached almost 6 later in his outings. This isn’t an issue until you consider the liability that was the Red Sox bullpen after the All-Star break.
There were similar jumps in 2023 between even his first and second times through the order, so while I do think this is something that will change much for the 28-year-old will as he continues to command his pitches, it’s worth mentioning.
Best Moment
Oh, no question. It came early in the season, with his shutout performance against the Guardians on April 17. The 1:49 game time was the shortest nine inning game since Armando Galarraga’s one-hitter (asterisk asterisk asterisk asterisk asterisk asterisk) in 2010. As they showed later in the season, Cleveland’s lineup isn’t full of slouches. Imagine being me, having a Wednesday night class, and seeing Houck power through this game on mute before the class even ended. Three hits, nine strikeouts, zero walks. Just 94 pitches. I don’t care that Bailey Ober outshone him with just 89 pitches later in the season, that’s impressive. I can’t imagine being a concession stand worker during that feature-film-sized game. Here are some of those strikeouts:
The Big Question
Have the Red Sox found an ace in Tanner Houck?
They just may have! And let me be a little more concrete and perscriptive: I think you may hear some language coming from the front office that this is the case, especially if they end up only acquiring depth arms this winter. Tanner Houck has emerged as a great pitcher, albeit one who showed long flashes of brilliance through three months and needs to work a little on staying consistently dependable throughout a six-month season. After originally being slotted in as a reliever, he’s become a great addition to a rotation for a team that hasn’t spent money (or stayed healthy) over the last few seasons. There may be more growth opportunities for Houck to get even better. The Red Sox need to spend money on more arms as good as Houck is at his best.
2025 and Beyond
A tale as old as time. Team begins contract extension negotiations, player balks, team balks back, they save it for next year. He’s hitting arbitration for the first time in 2025, and if his play continues, talks may get quite expensive for FSG, and the burden could be just as expensive mentally for the righty. It’s easier said than done to lock-up Houck with second-arm-in-the-rotation, or, dare I say it, ace money, and cynics will say he needs to stay consistent for a full year before John Henry backs up the Brinks truck. But it’s counterproductive to talk out both sides of your mouth and call someone your ace and in the same breath avoid paying him that type of money. We’ve watched this team do this for a while, and although we’re now two head honchos away from the man who drafted Houck (Dave Dombrowski) he’s a home grown talent. Just as even the most ardent Houck naysayers will say it’s time for Houck to prove himself as an ace, it’s time for the team to consider paying him like one.