It’s Triston Casas’s position for now.
The Starter
Triston Casas
Despite rumors swirling around a potential trade for a Seattle arm like Luis Castillo, Triston Casas remains the starting first basemen for the foreseeable future. Casas, who commands the plate with his size en eye, saw his season limited to just 63 games in 2024 due to a persistent rib injury, but he has consistently been in the upper tenth percentile at knowing how to work a walk in the Major Leagues, even if he also has the propensity to strike out a good amount too. He may have led the team in home runs had he played anywhere near a full 162 games, tallying 13 long balls in his abbreviated campaign, and he’s steadily improving defensively since his debut in 2022. Of course, he has one of the most authentic personalities in recent memory. Boston loves him and he is still developing with All-Star potential, so he’ll hopefully be here for a while.
There was a slight notion that, in light of the confusion about where Alex Bregman would play, the team might pivot and try Rafael Devers, or even Bregman himself, at first. And that makes some sense given the way that Alex Cora values versatility in his lineup card and given the trade value Casas has. But if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
The Bench
Romy Gonzalez
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Casas was injured for most of 2024 and Dom Smith, who led the team in starts in Casas’ absence, is in the Yankees organization to start 2025. Bobby Dalbec is also gone. Romy Gonzalez and Connor Wong had the next-most starts at the position. Gonzalez enjoyed a healthy increase of at-bats in 89 games during his third season in the majors, and a huge selling point is his versatility in the field and speed on the base paths.
He didn’t put together a great stat line in 2024, slashing .266/.306/.417, but when he hits the ball, he hits it: had he qualified for Savant rankings in 2024, he’d be in the upper fifteenth percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. He’s also getting more patient at the plate. I’d be hard pressed to not see Romy get at least 60-80 games at the Major League level in 2025.
Minor League Depth
Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images
This is where 1) not retaining Bobby Dalbec, and 2) dealing Niko Kavadas in that ill-fated trade deadline deal last summer hurts a bit. At the Triple-A level, the Red Sox are piecing a solution at first together using guys that do not consider that position to be their primary role. To name a few, Nick Sogard (come on, you know I’d vouch for him making the roster), Abraham Toro, Carlos Narvaez and Nathan Hickey are all options to get some sort of playing time. But none of them are technically first basemen, so if you see any of them line up at first for more than a couple games in any specific window of time, either the organization has figured out something new or something has gone horribly, horribly wrong. It’s also worth noting that Connor Wong can play first, aiding the team in any day-to-day jams, like another stomach bug situation or an impromptu day off.
Beyond those names, Alex Binelas looks to start the season either as a Worcester platoon option or a Portland everyday starter. I’d start with the latter before inching into the former as the season grows on. Check out the above video for some 4th of July fireworks he gave the Sea Dogs via a come-from-behind grand slam. He shows some promise, especially in the speed department, but has been slow to move up the system and has struggled to make contact. There’s also Tyler Miller who has some development potential, and 21-year-old Drew Ehrhard, who’s actually more of a utility player, as he saw some time in left field earlier in the week in Spring Training. Having platoon guys works, but there also needs to be a plan at first going forward… unless, of course, the plan is Triston Casas, which as I’ve stated before, increasingly seems to be the case. Which is totally fine with me!
Fangraphs Projections
Gotta love the 27 home run projection, coming in third on the team behind Devers and Bregman, as well as the 124 WRC. Hopefully he narrows that strikeout number a bit.
ZiPS is a little more modest, perhaps accounting for an injury (I hope not…) but still has him placing third in the home run metric and with the same WRC+.
Divisional Ranking
- Toronto Blue Jays – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (For now…)
- New York Yankees – Paul Goldschmidt
- Boston Red Sox – Triston Casas
- Baltimore Orioles – Ryan Mountcastle
- Tampa Bay Rays – Yandy Diaz (who might as well be 4b on this list)
The Yankees landing the 37-year-old “Hall of Very Good”-if-not-Hall-of-Famer Goldschmidt to a deal shook up the division a bit, but Casas is actually projected to have a better season than Goldie, who showed some real signs of aging last year. Vladimir is obviously a factor in any rankings, but signs are pointing to his time up north being limited after this season. Mountcastle and Diaz are also solid first basemen, and Diaz is barely removed from a 5-WAR season, but Casas’ potential to do damage this season can’t be understated.
Overall, it would not surprise me one iota to see the Red Sox pick up a Dom Smith or Garrett Cooper-esque player like they did last year, but hopefully that’s not out of necessity and it’s more because they want a platoon guy. The first base depth is a concern, but they have time to figure this out. In a pivotal year for the organization, hopefully Casas can further confirm his staying power.