A look at Red Sox trade values post-Garrett Crochet

Detroit Tigers v Boston Red Sox — Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images

What are the pros and cons for each of the desirable trade assets in the Red Sox system?

After the teardown of the 2018 championship team, it years for the Red Sox to build their major league roster and minor league depth up to a competitive level again, a process that took way too long for most of us. Wednesday’s trade of four prospects for lefthanded starting pitcher Garrett Crochet is the first official sign that the team is ready to be a contender again. There should be more to come, whether that be via free agency or in the trade market.

The Smash or Pass series has focused mainly on free agents. But trades, with actual players going in both directions as opposed to just money, are more complicated. So in thinking about what moves might be coming next on the trade market, let’s break down all of the potential centerpieces the Red Sox might ship out from Boston.

The “Give us perennial All-Stars only, please” Tier

Jarren Duran, Triston Casas

Trading established veteran bats with four years of control remaining is certainly a bold move. Ideally, the Red Sox would go out and spend in free agency and build around these bats for the foreseeable future, but there continues to be buzz that ownership does not want to offer long-term deals (7 or 8 years) to starting pitchers. Duran was the MVP of the All-Star Game in 2024, started 160 games, and produced an eye-popping 8.7 bWAR. He led all of baseball with 48 doubles and 14 triples while making significant strides defensively in his age-27 season. Casas has a 125 wRC+ and .830 OPS in 222 career games through his age-24 season and 70-grade power that will sit in the heart of the Red Sox lineup for years to come.

The case for trading Duran is as simple as “selling high.” It’s possible, maybe even probable, that Duran just had his best season. He’s a player who will have four arbitration years and is already estimated to make $4.9M in 2025. Duran is three years older than Casas and his final season would be at 31 years old prior to free agency. If the team believes that Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu can be the outfield of the future, while supplementing the 2025 lineup with a right-handed bat that can attempt to replace Duran’s production, then they may settle on moving the proven commodity.

The Triston Casas trade discussion is as polarizing as it gets. There are folks out there who would not trade Casas, a home-grown talent with immense upside, under any circumstances. I understand that stance entirely. The case for trading Casas is that he is one more rocky season away from losing most of his trade value due to the injury-prone label. Take a look at what he’s dealt with the last few years:

2022: Right Ankle sprain, missed two months (AAA)
Offseason 2022: Knee injury, pulled out of Dominican Winter League
2023: Shoulder inflammation, missed 16 games (MLB)
2024: Rib cage injury, missed 98 games (MLB)

Casas is 6’5”, 244 lbs. That’s a lot of weight coming down on those feet and he has claimed that doctors told him he created a car crash within his body because of how violent his swing is. Casas says a lot of things, so we should take this with a grain of salt, but there has been a trend over the past three seasons. He has not offered much defensively thus far in his career and has notably frustrated coaches by working on plays that rarely occur in a game instead of the common plays near the bag at first base.

In an ideal world, the Red Sox would not need to trade either of these players and instead spend in free agency on the abundance of pitching that is available. Garrett Crochet is a great start for a front-of-the-rotation pitcher but he does not have the track record of an Ace and is unlikely to spike much beyond 160 innings in 2025, having had arm injuries in the past and only moving back to starting pitching over the past year. If the Mariners and Red Sox finally decide to dance, and the names George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, or Bryce Miller are on the table, it is probably going to take someone from this tier to get a deal done.

The “Are you sending us back a future HOFer?” Tier

Roman Anthony

Anthony feels like the least likely player on this entire list to be traded. The number one prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, and many other lists, Anthony could conceivably break camp with the team at age 20 and never look back. His combination of plate discipline and power, with solid defense, could make him a cornerstone player for the Red Sox into the early 2030s. The case for trading Anthony, of course, is that he has as much as seven years of control and would bring back the most significant return of MLB-ready players.

The “He just won a Gold Glove, of course you want him” Tier

Wilyer Abreu

Abreu is a player who has become very interesting as a trade candidate. From a service time perspective, Abreu came up late in the 2023 season, so he is controllable through 2029. He is coming off a Gold Glove season in right field in 2024, where he threw out nine runners on the basepaths and finished sixth in the Rookie of the Year voting. His 3+ WAR output (bWAR and fWAR) came not only from his defense but also from his .781 OPS with 15 HRs and 58 RBI.

Unfortunately, Abreu was unable to hit lefthanders in his rookie season and there is the possibility that he is more of a “strong-side platoon” player on a playoff team than a foundational piece.

A .180 batting average with an OPS that was nearly 300 points lower from the left side raises some concerns, specifically when the team that won your division a year ago has just added lefty Max Fried for the next eight years, to go with Carlos Rodon.

Abreu could be a more desirable target for a team that is a year or two away from competing. I expected to see Abreu’s name in the Crochet deal since he could potentially get more at-bats against lefthanders in the short term to improve from that side and still be on the roster for five seasons when the team turns the corner. Are the White Sox expecting their contention window to start in the year 2030?

Luis Castillo’s name has popped up more in recent days and at the age of 32, he feels more in the tier of a Wilyer Abreu trade. For everything that Crochet brings on a per-inning basis, Castillo brings from a volume perspective, and he has three years remaining on his deal. Over the past five full seasons, Castillo has averaged exactly 180 innings pitched, as well as making every start (70 innings) in the pandemic year. Jacob Roy wrote about Castillo in more detail here earlier this week.

The takeaway from many regarding the return in the Garrett Crochet deal was a sense of relief that, at least the Red Sox hung on to Wilyer Abreu. While I would have done the deal either way, I would’ve liked the deal more if Abreu was the centerpiece, rather than trading your catcher of the future in Kyle Teel, due to Abreu’s platoon splits and the strength in the outfield that the Red Sox already have.

The “Sorry, ‘The Big Two’ just doesn’t have the same ring to it” Tier

Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel

This was a tier that I had planned to break down a bit more in-depth but with Wednesday’s news that Teel has been moved to the White Sox, it feels unlikely that they would move another name from this list. There were not enough spots available over the next year or so to make room for Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, and Teel. All four of them have the “ETA: 2025” tag. Braden Montgomery may not have been far behind.

Campbell could arguably slide into the first tier with Roman Anthony, but the #1 prospect in baseball feels like he should have a tier of his own. I wrote about him in greater detail when he made the leap into “The Big Four” in late June. Other moves will dictate where Campbell and Mayer play on the field, with Campbell seeming like a fit at second base at the moment, but also the ability to move to the outfield, or even third base. While Mayer is likely a shortstop long-term, he could slide to third base if Story can stay on the field and play an above-average defensive shortstop. And of course, an Alex Bregman signing or a Nolan Arenado trade would cause even further chaos.

Even though it was a deal that probably had to be done, it was tough to see Teel, the Red Sox catcher of the future, go out in Wednesday’s trade. If it had been Mayer, it would be easier to see how the puzzle pieces fit in the long term.

The “He swings at pitches in the on-deck circle, but we like having him here” Tier

Ceddanne Rafaela

See the fresh Rafaela year in review here for the complexities of Rafaela’s case. But, the TL;DR is that Rafaela is a fantastic defensive player who has some of the worst plate discipline in baseball history. He did not take a single walk for the final seven weeks of the MLB season, spanning 142 plate appearances. He did have the worst chase rate in baseball, and a 1-to-10 BB:K ratio. If Duran, Abreu, and Anthony all stay, and the Sox sign a Teoscar Hernandez type bat, Rafaela could either move into a “super-utility” role or be appealing in a trade. He is signed through 2031 on an 8-year, $50M deal which includes a team option for 2032.

The “We’ll Pay You To Take Him” Tier: Masataka Yoshida

Yoshida is not worthless as a hitter. In a league where the collective batting average was down to .243, Yoshida hit .280. Once he had recovered from the thumb injury that cost him much of May and June, he hit .299 with 8 HR and 43 RBI from July 1 on. I can assure you that there’s a place for that in an MLB lineup, even on a playoff team. Unfortunately, his offseason shoulder surgery leaves additional doubt and his contract of 3 years, with $54 million remaining is a bit offensive for a DH-only profile. Whether it is for Arenado in St. Louis where old friend Chaim Bloom now resides, or to Atlanta for Sean Murphy (which feels unlikely with Marcell Ozuna present), or to Arizona for Jordan Montgomery (isn’t his wife in grad school here or something?), the Red Sox will need to find a similar contract at a different position that opens up the DH spot for the team to sign a power bat. If the market is as soft with Pete Alonso as it sounds, I would be all over that as the designated hitter long-term and just let him mash. A top-5 in the lineup of Duran, Devers, Casas, Alonso, and Anthony contends right now and in the future.

One big deal has already presented itself this week, which shows that the Red Sox finally, actually, want to compete in 2025. I’d be surprised if another one isn’t looming, but from which tier they want to deal remains to be seen.