He hasn’t pitched well, but there’s still life in his arsenal.
Welcome back to another edition of The Anatomy of An Inning. My name is Jacob Roy, and I pretend to know pitching better than the pitchers themselves. If you’re new here or need a reminder of what this is all about, I take an inning from the previous week of Red Sox baseball and break it down, one pitch at a time. Each pitch should have a purpose, I’m looking at each of them individually to try to go beyond the box score and tell the full story.
The Situation
Let’s look at Walker Buehler’s second outing of the season, the home opener. He sat down the side in order in the first inning, so we’ll jump to the second inning.
AB #1: Nolan Arenado
St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado was red-hot coming into the series opener, posting an OPS over 1.000 in the first six games, including a home run and two doubles. The “book” on Arenado is typically to pitch him down and away. This season, he’s managed to fight off pitches on the outside part of the plate for base hits, though he hadn’t hit any of them particularly hard.
Buehler starts the at-bat with a fastball for called strike one. He misses his spot, but the velocity at 94 MPH is good, and the vertical movement is also closer to where it was when Buehler was at his peak. Fine start.
Here’s a sweeper from Buehler that also misses the mark, but Arenado is caught off-balance and taps it off the end of the bat. Nice easy play for out number one.
AB #2: Alec Burleson
Burleson hits pitches on the inside part of the plate very well. As such, Buehler will likely have to work primarily with his fastball, curveball, changeup, and maybe a backdoor cutter.
Fastball. This one misses to the arm-side for ball one.
This is a really good pitch to get back in the at-bat. Ahead in the count, Burleson is probably looking for a fastball middle-in. Buehler throws a curveball on the outer part of the plate, and Burleson wants nothing to do with it. Free real estate.
Buehler spots a changeup well at 1-1, but Burleson bats it into left field with a defensive swing. The result here is what it is, but it makes me wonder about Buehler’s changeup outlook. At 89 MPH, I don’t know if the velocity separation from his fastball is enough to generate consistent swing and miss. It’s early in the season, and the movement profile is very different from his heater, but it’s something to monitor going forward.
AB #3: Ivan Herrera
Herrera is a difficult at-bat thanks to his ability to cover all parts of the plate. High and inside appears to be the “weak spot” in his swing, but it’s not as if he was a total liability to those pitches.
Buehler starts the at-bat off with a sweeper. Herrera takes a huge hack and comes up empty. Following the swing, you could assume Herrera is looking for a fastball to hit. If Buehler is to double up with the sweeper, I’d finish this one off the plate. A fastball or cutter on the outside edge could also earn a called strike.
Buehler opts for the cutter, and Herrera shoots it the other way. This pitch probably catches more of the plate than Buehler hoped, but it’s down in the zone where it’s difficult for Herrera to square up. Wilyer Abreu makes a nice play to secure the ball for the second out.
AB #4: Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker comes up with two outs. Walker is equipped with elite bat speed and the ability to crush the ball, but terrible swing decisions and bat-to-ball skills. Buehler can afford to be careful with two outs and one on.
Great start. 95 MPH on the outside edge. Ahead in the count, a sweeper or cutter away could induce a swing and miss with an undisciplined hitter at the plate.
It is the cutter, and Walker fouls it off. At 0-2, Buehler should throw something off the plate to avoid damage. I’d go with a sweeper, but he could also opt for his curveball if he feels better about that pitch.
It’s the sweeper, but it’s non-competitive. I might change the pitch selection with a more disciplined hitter at the plate, but I’d continue with the sweeper against Walker.
Excellent. Buehler hits his spot with the sweeper, and Walker waves at it to end the inning. Overall, this was an okay inning. There were some command issues, but Buehler’s misses were off the plate where they couldn’t be punished. Improved fastball command would go a long way in setting up his other pitches, though.
AB #5: Nolan Arenado
Let’s jump ahead to the fourth inning, with Nolan Arenado at the plate for a second time. He softly grounded out in his first at-bat.
It’s a fastball on the outside edge for called strike one. After hitting that spot, Buehler can continue playing with that edge with his cutter or sweeper.
Buehler tries to go up and inside with a fastball but misses his spot for ball one. Again, it’s not a bad miss, but you’d like to see more consistent fastball command.
At 1-1, Buehler goes to his cutter and locates it well. Arenado seems to have his sights set away from him following the inside pitch and hits it off the monster. In every other stadium, this is probably caught for an out, but we’re not in every other stadium. So far this season, hitters have gone 4/9 against Buehler’s cutter with two doubles and just three whiffs on 21 swings, causing me to wonder about the pitch’s effectiveness. The movement profile is largely the same as last season when it was a great offering, but the results haven’t been repeated this season.
AB #6: Alec Burleson
Burleson was able to fight off a changeup for a fortunate base hit the first time up.
Curveball. Burleson is way in front of it and fouls it off for the first strike.
Fastball, up and away for ball one.
Buehler goes back to the curveball, and Burleson once again can’t keep it fair. With two strikes, Buehler could either repeat the curveball out of the zone, throw a sweeper to the back foot, or even a high fastball if he feels he can execute. There’s no need to give Burleson something he can handle in the strike zone.
Yikes. We never really get a good look at the target from Carlos Narvaez, likely due to the runner on second base, but I think it’s safe to say this isn’t where he wanted to throw it. Burleson had a hard time keeping the first two inside curveballs fair, but this is away from him where he can get around it and pull the ball into right field. Yuck.
AB #6: Ivan Herrera
Ivan Herrera comes up for his second at-bat with runners on the corners. He flew out to right field last time on a low cutter.
Herrera begins the at-bat by taking a cutter for a called strike.
I like the idea of trying to get Herrera to expand the zone by throwing to a similar starting location with the sweeper, but it’s too far off the plate. 1-1.
This is labeled a slider, but I’m fairly sure it’s another cutter. Again, not a horrible location, but Herrera has no problem depositing it in the right field bullpen. Maybe the Cardinals came in to the game with the game plan of finding cut fastballs to hit, and that’s why they were seemingly prepared for cutters. Maybe Buehler is doing something to indicate he’s throwing. In the case of the latter, he’ll need to get right in order to be successful.
Overall, Buehler will be the first to tell you he’s not performing to the level he wants to. Still, there are some signs of life in his arsenal. His sweeper has been excellent as a swing and miss pitch, he’s used his curveball effectively in the strike zone, and he’s only walked one hitter in two outings. Fastball command, and limiting hard contact against his cutter are the biggest hurdles for Buehler going forward. Keep an eye on those two things in his next outing.