So can he get it working the way it was early in 2024?
Welcome back to another edition of The Anatomy of An Inning. My name is Jacob Roy, and I pretend to know pitching better than the pitchers themselves. If you’re new here or need a reminder of what this is all about, I take an inning from the previous week of Red Sox baseball and break it down, one pitch at a time. Each pitch should have a purpose, I’m looking at each of them individually to try to go beyond the box score and tell the full story.
The Situation
We’ll go to the second game of the season, as Tanner Houck makes his 2025 debut against the Texas Rangers.
Bottom Second: Adolis Garcia
Let’s start in the second inning with one out. Adolis Garcia has seen Houck several times prior to Friday. He had reached base five out of six appearances, including a home run and a double.
First pitch, sinker inside for ball one. Ideally, this would catch the corner for a strike, but it’s a solid pitch.
At 1-0, Houck goes to his sweeper and spots it well. Garcia is looking for a fastball and just catches this one with the top of his bat. If I’m Houck, I’d continue going back outside until Garcia shows he can lay off.
Here’s a splitter, and it’s totally non-competitive for ball two. Against righties, Houck should be able to succeed with sinkers inside and sweepers outside.
Excellent. The sinker starts on the inside edge and ties up Garcia as it runs in on his hands. With two strikes, I would start a sweeper down the middle and run it off the plate to induce a swing and miss.
Good pitch, better defensive hitting from Garcia. The way I see it, Houck has two good options. He could throw the high four-seam that he mentioned bringing back this year or another sweeper. It looks like Garcia may have the sweeper covered, but a well-located one may miss his bat.
It’s another splitter, and it’s yanked to run the count full. Houck should throw whatever he feels he can throw in the strike zone.
It’s the splitter again, and I can’t say I understand. He’s yet to locate one well this outing and misses again here. Garcia has had success against Houck’s sweeper in the past, but it wasn’t as if he was punishing good pitches in those at-bats. He was crushing hangers. Houck has an approach that works against right-handed hitters, and while his splitter can be effective, it’s the clear third offering. I’d like to see Houck attack with his best pitches, especially the first time through the order.
Bottom Second: Jake Burger
Jake Burger is up next. This is his first career meeting with Tanner Houck.
Sweeper for called strike one. Excellent.
Here’s another sweeper off the plate. Burger takes a huge hack and comes up empty. With two strikes, I’d go back outside with a third sweeper.
Here, Houck tries to throw a backdoor sinker. While I typically don’t like backdoor pitches, it makes sense after a huge swing and miss. If Burger sees a pitch start outside, he’ll likely pass, expecting another sweeper to run away from him. If Houck starts his sinker in the right spot, he may be able to freeze Burger as the pitch comes back and clips the outside edge. He misses with this one, but at 0-2, there’s no harm done as it’s not over the plate. Again, I’d go back to the sweeper here.
Perfect. Burger is out in front and waves at it for strike three. This is how Houck should attack right-handed hitters. If a hitter shows they can’t lay off the sweeper, there’s no need to mess around with a splitter. Nice execution from Houck here.
Bottom Third: Jonah Heim
Let’s jump ahead to the third inning. Coming into the game, Heim was 1-2 against Houck with a home run and a strikeout. The home run came on a splitter that was over the plate, while the strikeout came on a sinker off the plate.
Houck starts the at-bat with a sweeper off the plate. He tries to backdoor it for a called strike, but the pitch doesn’t break enough to catch the zone. 1-0.
Houck throws another sweeper, this one over the plate. Heim swings right underneath it for the first strike. Houck may be fortunate he got a whiff in this location, but that’s a testament to his stuff.
Here’s a sweeper on the outside edge. Heim lunges at it, indicating that he may be expecting another sweeper. With two strikes, a splitter in the same location is a great option. It’s worth noting that to this point, Houck has only thrown five splitters and didn’t locate any of them well.
This one is labeled a sinker, but it’s actually a four-seam. It’s located well at the top of the zone, but Heim sees the fastball and is able to foul it off. Again, the splitter down and away makes a lot of sense here.
Houck goes back to the sweeper, leaves it over the outside edge, and Heim puts it in the seats. Houck’s sweeper, with its huge horizontal movement, is susceptible to left-handed damage. If a pitch starts in the right-handed batter’s box and Heim is ready for a breaking ball, he can wait on it and punish it as he does here. If he’s looking for a fastball, the worst-case scenario is he fouls off a breaking ball as it comes towards the plate. If Houck is going to attack lefties without his splitter, his sweeper needs to be located down and inside with two strikes.
Bottom Fifth: Corey Seager
Moving on to the bottom of the fifth inning. Corey Seager is up in the fifth inning with a runner on third and two outs. At this point in the game, Seager is 1-2 with a single. He’s seen four pitches, three of which were splitters. In 2024, Seager was 0-6 against Houck with a walk. In those seven meetings, Seager saw one fastball.
First pitch, splitter. Ball one.
Houck follows it up with another splitter. This one misses the spot as well, but Seager fouls it off to even the count.
A third splitter, and the best one so far. It starts on the outside edge and stays away. Seager reaches out and fouls it off for the second strike. After three consecutive splitters, it may be difficult to get a swing and miss with another. That doesn’t mean he can’t throw one, though. A groundball is just as good as a strikeout with two outs, and a splitter down in the zone could induce weak contact.
Here’s a four-seamer above the zone. Starting with the obvious, the execution isn’t good enough. It’s way too high to induce a swing. In theory, though, this is a great idea. To this point, Seager has seen 30 pitches from Houck dating back to last season. Just two of the 30 have been fastballs. Seager likely isn’t geared up for velocity, which would help get this one by him. I’d avoid doubling up on fastballs because Seager handles velocity well and would instead opt for another splitter or a sweeper down and in.
Houck goes back to the split, and it starts too far off the plate to induce a swing. With a righty on deck and a base open, a walk here isn’t the end of the world, so Houck can be careful even in a full count.
Beautiful. Stunner. Gnarly. More adjectives. This is probably the best splitter Houck threw during the entire outing. It starts on the outer half but hangs on just enough to catch the corner for strike three, ending the inning.
Houck’s splitter is his most important pitch. As we saw in the at-bat against Smith, Houck can be successful against righties with his sinker and sweeper. Against lefties, he needs a pitch going to the arm side and needs to have the confidence to throw it for strikes. If he only ever uses it as a chase pitch, hitters can keep their sights set on the inner half. If Houck can locate his splitter in the zone, he’ll be able to get through lineups multiple times. If he can’t, he’ll likely be closer to the iteration we saw in 2023.