Even when he “wins,” he loses.
By any objective measure, signing Alex Bregman was a baseball smart move for the Red Sox, even at the somewhat preposterous — and somewhat phony — sticker price of $40 million a year over three years, provided Bregs, with his multiple opt-outs, stays that long. I’m usually the first person to remind others to avoid sticker shock, but my brain and heart are in conflict on this one, given my extreme dislike, to this point, of Alex Bregman, the player.
Can I change? Can this old dog learn new tricks? Maybe. Is this deal worth celebrating? I guess it is, but the interminable negotiations, leading to an extremely player-friendly contract on the eve of Spring Training, raises my hackles. Reporting suggests that Boston’s deal was at $10 million more in AAV than anyone else’s, only the latest entry in the occasional saga of “John Henry bids heavily against himself.” First it was Dice-K. You could count Carl Crawford. More recently it was Masa Yoshida. Now it’s Bregman. It would be an understatement to say that, out of context, these names don’t exactly inspire confidence.
In context, it makes far more sense. Bregman’s signing pushed the Sox to the second-best projected record in the American League, per FanGraphs, behind only the Yankees. That New York is at 87, and Boston is at 85, takes the excitement down a bit, but you gotta be in it to win it, and the Sox are plainly back in it. (Unless you prefer Baseball Prospectus, which has Boston still finishing in last in the division at 80-82, but let’s stick with the ‘Graphs for narrative purposes.)
Maybe that’s why, having once again been fleeced by Scott Boras, Henry lit a stogie by the fireplace to commemorate the Bregman deal and, critically, allowed a photo of it to be posted to Instagram by his wife. Henry wants people to know, or to think, he’s back in the winning game:
This is loser shit. If signing Alex Freaking Bregman at the dollar amount of his choosing is worth cheering for in the smoky rooms that have long run this sport, it’s no wonder the Dodgers are able to run roughshod over everyone else. Barring a 2013-like miracle — which is possible! — the Sox are still a wild card team at best and one Garrett Crochet injury away from disaster, which wasn’t helped by Nick Pivetta signing with the Padres yesterday.
We’ve seen Henry vacillate wildly when it comes to paying players or letting-slash-making them walk, and we’re clearly now back from the Chaim/Mookie-driven fallow period. I wouldn’t say it’s too little, too late, but this seems far more desperate than it should given Bregman’s fit. Yes, you can win while making loser moves, and you can lose while making winning moves, but if you have loser DNA, you have loser DNA. Celebrating a deal of this size is certainly standard practice, but when it’s bloated because you made it so, the air tends to come out of the room, if only for a while.
Anyhow, enjoy the cigar, John. Just don’t burn the place down again when Bregman’s bill comes due.