Know Thy Enemy: Cleveland Guardians

Coming off an AL Central title and ALCS appearance in 2024, the Guardians traded away some key players from their lineup. Do they have enough firepower to get back in ‘25?

Our annual series of previewing the Boston Red Sox’s foes continues with the defending AL Central champion, Cleveland Guardians.

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What’s This Team’s Deal?

“Billy, these are the Cleveland Guardians. They were in the ALCS last year. You’d think they could do that again this year. Their defect is that they trade away any players they might have to pay a fair cost for their talents.”

How Good Are They?

The Guardians were one of the final four teams in the playoffs last year after winning 92 games in the regular season, which was good enough to win the AL Central by 6.5 games. They had a first-year manager in Stephen Vogt who won the AL Manager of the Year Award. Unfortunately, as mentioned at the top, they continue to spend in the bottom third of MLB, which is no different this year.

Spotrac

In 2024, Jose Ramirez was a 6.5 fWAR player. Steven Kwan was a 4 fWAR player. The only other two hitters above 2 fWAR for the Guardians last year, one who hit ahead of Ramirez and one who hit behind Ramirez, were both traded in their prime, solely because Cleveland would have had to pay them what they were worth.

Last season’s two-hole hitter, Andres Gimenez, had a bit of a down year at the plate with just an 83 wRC+, but he stole 30 bases and played stellar defense (+21 outs above average). He was shipped off to Toronto in a three-team deal that brought pitcher Luis Ortiz and minor leaguers back to Cleveland. Gimenez was just two years into a 7-year pre-arbitration extension that he had signed and will make $10.6M for Toronto this year.

Josh Naylor was sent to the D-Backs for a Comp B draft pick (a pick that Cleveland could have received when Naylor inevitably left in free agency) and 25-year-old pitcher Slade Cecconi, who has a career 6.06 ERA in 104 innings. The 27-year-old Naylor ended up making $10.9M in arbitration for his final year before free agency, up from $6.5M a year ago. The Guardians then turned around and paid 39-year-old Carlos Santana MORE than Naylor is making in 2025 by signing him to a one-year deal worth $12M. Make it make sense, somebody, please.

But this is about the 2025 Cleveland Guardians, so I’ll move on. It starts with Ramirez, who has finished in the top-10 in AL MVP voting seven of the past eight seasons, and top-5 in five of those years. Everyone spent the stretch run of last season talking about Shohei Ohtani’s 40/40, and eventually 50/50 season. Meanwhile, one of the great seasons of this decade was lost in the shuffle. The Guardians’ final game of the season was rained out, and not rescheduled, leaving Ramirez a home run shy of the illustrious 40/40 club. One that, yes, Shohei Ohtani joined a year ago, one of only six players in the history of baseball to do so. Ramirez finished fifth in the MVP voting, finishing with a .279 BA, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 114 runs, and 41 stolen bases. While the crew ahead of him was very deserving, my non-existent vote would have had him higher.

Cleveland’s lineup does not look great on paper, especially from a power perspective. The only two players on the current roster who hit 15+ home runs a year ago were Ramirez (39) and Santana (23). You can squint and see a few other players putting it together if a lot of “ifs” happen. If Lane Thomas can find his 2023 form when he went 20/20 with the Nationals, if Kyle Manzardo can finally be a thing after being a hyped prospect for years now, if Brayan Rocchio can be Andres Gimenez-lite, if Jhonkensy “Big Christmas” Noel can keep the swing-and-miss down and drop the kind of bombs that he did in the playoffs last year, then the Guardians could once again compete for the division because their pitching staff has a lot of upside.

Tanner Bibee had a bit of a breakout a year ago, proving he could handle a number one starter’s workload by throwing 173 2/3 IP, going 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He had a 20.1 K-BB%, which placed him next to pitchers like George Kirby, Cole Ragans, and Pablo Lopez in that metric. Behind Bibee is Gavin Williams, another up-and-coming young pitcher who, like Bibee, will turn 26 this season. Williams dealt with some elbow pain early last season and ended up making 16 starts in the second half with mixed results, ending the season with a 3-10 record and 4.86 ERA. The first-round pick was a top prospect and, with a healthy spring training, should have a better season. He’s looked outstanding in his first two spring starts.

Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi came over in the aforementioned deals for Gimenez and Naylor. Ortiz, specifically, is expected to slot in the rotation to open the season and figured things out in the second half for Pittsburgh a year ago, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 82.2 second-half innings. Triston McKenzie and Ben Lively are currently listed on Roster Resource to start the season in the rotation but one of those spots will eventually go to the rehabbing Shane Bieber.

Bieber will be a serious X-factor on the ’25 Guardians season. The 2020 Cy Young winner is still just entering his age-30 season, and now that Tommy John surgery is in his rearview, he looks to return to his 2019-2022 form where he combined for a 2.91 ERA and 10.9 K/9 over those four seasons. Bieber actually was electric in his first two starts of 2024, not allowing a run, before going under the knife.

The bullpen is another strength of this team. Clase has led the American League in saves three years in a row, notching 47 in 2024 with a miniscule 0.61 ERA to finish third in the Cy Young voting. Of course, what happened to Clase in the playoffs is another story, allowing eight earned runs and three homers in eight innings and a couple of notable losses. Cade Smith pitched in 83 games in the regular season and playoffs combined, which could be a red flag for his arm, but he had a 1.91 ERA and an other-worldly 29.8 K-BB%. No pitcher in baseball (min. 70 IP) had a better mark than that, including Garrett Crochet (29.6%). Add in the free agent signing of Paul Sewald, who has closer experience, and this is a great ‘pen.

Most Likable Player: Jhonkensy Noel

https://x.com/MLB/status/1869444937353433232?lang=en

A year ago, I probably would’ve said Jose Ramirez for knocking out Tim Anderson. But this year, we have no choice but to go with Big Christmas.

Noel was part of one of the coolest moments of the 2024 postseason: two outs, bottom of the ninth, loudest bat crack imaginable, rounds the bases like he’s been there before. Radio announcer Tom Hamilton’s call is a must.

Schedule Against the Red Sox

The Red Sox head to Cleveland for a three-game series beginning Friday, April 25th, and then don’t see them again until Labor Day. The Guardians come to down for three, starting that Monday, September 1 for a 1:35 start before two 6:45 night games.

(Side note: It’s a minor change, but the 6:45 night games in April and September at Fenway this year is a great move. Both for those of us who wait all day to watch baseball and for the fans who have 25 fewer minutes to freeze their asses off.)

Season Prediction

If it wasn’t clear, I’m not a fan of what the Guardians did this offseason, and I think it’s going to come back and bite them. Their manager is excellent, they have a perennial MVP candidate and a top bullpen, so they will be in the mix. However, we know that Detroit and Kansas City are emerging as well, and the Twins were in the mix until an epic collapse. All four of these teams get to play the White Sox the same number of times, so there’s no edge there. I think Cleveland will win ten fewer games than they did last year and finish 82-80, short of the playoffs.