The Sox have a new reclamation project.
Who is he and where did he come from?
He’s Walker Buehler. I’m not sure how good your short-term memory is, but he threw the last pitch of the season that just passed, against the New York Yankees, to close out the Dodgers’ game 5 World Series victory. Yes, he’s a defending World Series champion! He’d been working on a Hall of Very Good claim as a 2-time champion and 2-time All-Star who also finished in the top-10 of the Cy Young voting twice. But he’s now one year removed from missing an entire season due to what was originally treated as bone spurs in his elbow but ended up requiring a second Tommy John surgery. He comes to the Red Sox on a one-year “prove it” deal for $21 million, and is the team’s second rotation addition in about two weeks …but keep that number in mind later in the article.
Is he any good?
He’s been very, very good in the past. But in his first season after his second Tommy John, he experienced a noticeable decline. There’s obviously some concern about his durability, since he’s now thrown two consecutive seasons of fewer than 100 innings. I’ll remind you, though, that he did throw 200 innings in 2021, and 182 innings in 2019. It’s also worth noting his velocity on his four-seamer, which he started going to a lot less in 2024, didn’t decrease by much — a little less than a mile an hour, sitting at around 95 MPH. He also has a knuckle curve that causes hitters to chase FAR outside the strike zone.
In 2024, he was in the bottom 20 percent of pitchers in xERA, pitching run value, chase and whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage, and experienced his fourth consecutive season with a falling strikeout ratio…. but look at these 2021 Savant numbers and tell me there’s not a good pitcher in there.
It’s now up to Andrew Bailey to figure out how to keep Buehler healthy and rework his post-surgery repertoire.
Tl;dr, just give me his 2024 stats.
75.1 IP, 5.38 ERA, 1-6, -0.2 ERA, 64 K, 28 BB
Career: 47-22, 3.27 ERA, 15 WAR, 754 K, 190 BB
Show me a cool highlight.
Buehler was the guy the Dodgers trusted to clinch the World Series with a one-run lead, albeit against the bottom of the Yankees’ lineup, including Alex Verdugo (hold your laughter). Look at this 13-inch horizontal break on this final knuckle curve. This pitch is really getting there.
What’s he doing in his picture up there?
Celebrating, about five seconds after the above highlight. I personally love when athletes hit this “arms up” pose after being clutch like this. He’s daring a team to pay him in the offseason. And he’s born to strike out Alex Verdugo.
What’s his role on the 2025 Red Sox?
I want to be clear to those that say $21 million dollars for a pitcher who pitched the worst year of his career is a gross overpay. Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea got over $20 million dollars a year. Nick Pivetta will too. I also want to be clear: I will overpay ANYONE on a one-year deal. Putting it bluntly: if he sucks, the deal’s over, and we don’t bring him back.
Buehler is 30 years old. If he’s good in the rotation, John Henry moves money around to keep him — or gets rightful criticism if he doesn’t. Now, this signing effectively puts out of the running for someone who may be more dependable long-term — the Seattle pitchers are likely out of the question, and Corbin Burnes is certainly going to sign elsewhere. But, in a fantasy world where injuries don’t happen, I’m not mad at a rotation of Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello and Crawford. In a realistic world where injuries do happen, or perhaps one in which Crochet’s workload is still monitored, there need to be a few more depth pieces — and GOOD depth pieces — added to the bullpen. But this one-year commitment might as well be not a commitment at all; and here’s hoping that Buehler continues building his Hall of Very Good case here in Boston.