Monday Morning Brushback: No Days Off

The Red Sox week in review dives into Brayan Bello, Chris Martin and Rich Hill’s return.

Just because it’s a national holiday doesn’t mean we stop pumping out the Monday Morning Brushback, folks.

Bad news good news on the Red Sox front after this past week, I suppose. The bad news is that prime opportunities to make up some ground in the Wild Card chase were squandered. It’s tough to defend a series where you dropped three (well, technically two I suppose on account of the suspension) games out of five at home against a rudderless divisional foe in the Toronto Blue Jays, and Saturday’s game in Detroit realistically could’ve resulted in a victory had boneheaded mistakes on defense not directly led to the second of the Tigers’s two runs crossing the plate.

The good news is that despite the constant sense of dread and the overwhelming feeling that the book just might be closing on the 2024 Red Sox… they’re still just a handful of games out of a playoff spot. I know that four and a half games is a considerable gap at this stage of the baseball calendar, but I haven’t seen any chatter about Magic Numbers or Elimination Numbers just yet. There are plenty of games left to be played.

And yet, the Red Sox really do need to go on a tear in this final stretch. I said as much in last week’s Brushback and I’ll say it again here: they really can’t afford to be dropping any other sets in September… and if they do drop a series here or there, they’d better be making up for it with sweeps. That’s a tall task for any team, let alone a club that’s had such a helter-skelter run over the past few months.

Take a look at the point that Red Sox Stats pointed out on Twitter (I’m still not gonna call it that one letter):

And that post was made before they dropped the finale against the Motor City Kitties on Sunday, so now it’s an even harder hill to climb.

Nothing like this is impossible in baseball. Much weirder things have happened in this sport. But this upcoming week is the last chance to make up some ground in the playoff hunt before a tough stretch against AL East foes—with the one exception being a weekend series at the Fens against—as things currently stand—the direct competition for the third and final Wild Card spot.

Let’s make it count.

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

Brayan Bello’s Big Break

Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

By and large, 2024 has been a year to forget for Brayan Bello. Between far too many walks issued and some absolute meltdowns, expectations haven’t been met after the ink dried on the six-year, $55 million contract extension he signed back in March. One step forward, one step back type of deal.

Well, Bello’s start on Wednesday against our enemies from north of the border was certainly one of those trends in the right direction amid his continued development. Eight innings of shutout ball with nine strikeouts to go alongside just a pair of hits and one free pass allowed, how’s that for a step forward?

Maybe it was the blue sleeves that did the trick for Brayan. Shades of Pedro in the ‘99 ASG, as people rightly pointed out (it wasn’t just the podcast that I’m shamelessly plugging; plenty of people on the TL made this reference. Y’all know who you are).

It was a huge outing from a starter right when the Red Sox needed it. Bello’s heroics were enough to bring his ERA down to 3.42 in the second half—a stretch that has seen some of the warts of the first half pop up (he has GOT to stop walking so many batters; I’m actually surprised that his BB% is only in the 36th percentile, as I would’ve guessed that it was even worse), but one that has seen some positive developments pop up as well. As OTM’s very own Jake Roy (who is much smarter than I, especially when it comes to pitching) noted: Bello was able to command his changeup on Wednesday, an offering that—especially as a ground ball type of pitcher—is vital for him to execute.

Bello’s got a ways to go, but there’s a quality pitcher in there somewhere. That quality can be unlocked with a more consistent display of the command we saw on Wednesday. Limit the mistakes in missing spots and letting innings get out of hand, keep that change low, and learn from more experience: that’s the recipe for a successful Brayan Bello moving forward. I know it’s hard to subdue expectations for a guy who just signed an eight-figure deal, but it’s easy to forget that Bello is just 25 and that progression isn’t always linear. He’s got a shot to build off of this stellar outing and have some takeaways that don’t render 2024 a complete waste of a year on the bump.

Or… he could completely implode again on Monday, I dunno. If he does, you know which blogger to yell at.

Safety EP

Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

I think Chris Martin is fantastic. Seeing him emerge just puts a smile on my face. I am so appreciative of his efforts and his output. He brings an immense amount of joy not just to me, but to fans across the world. He’s been at the top of his craft for quite some time now, and he hasn’t show any signs of slowing down in 2024. [Editor’s note: We saw where this was going and reluctantly let it stay in.]

I also think that number 55 on the Red Sox is a great pitcher.

The right-handed pitcher—not the man with the voice of an angel and the knack to pinpoint a great melody (well, maybe our Chris Martin is a musical virtuoso and I just don’t know it, who knows)—has been fantastic ever since being activated from the injured list on August 7. In 10 innings across 11 outings since then, he’s given up just one earned run across 11 hits and no walks. The 12 strikeouts during that stretch certainly don’t hurt either.

Martin’s lockdown stuff out of the bullpen has been massive given the tumultuous nature of Boston’s arm barn since the Mid-Summer Classic. For a bullpen that has the distinct honor of being the only unit in MLB with a second-half ERA starting with the number six (6) entering Sunday’ action, Martin’s stability has been a beacon in the night. In this crazy world, it’s true: I just want you, Chris.

Martin’s ability to induce hitters to offer at pitches outside of the zone makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. That leads to strikeouts and bad contact—simple mathematics there. He hasn’t logged enough innings to qualify for Savant leaderboards, but if you were to extrapolate his stats this year so that his body of work would quality, his 36.7% chase rate would qualify for the 98th percentile across all of baseball. That’d be right ahead of the 36.1% chase rate posted thus far by Cleveland’s closer Emmanuel Clase… y’know, the guy who’s gonna get some consideration for the Cy Young Award this year.

My question moving forward with Martin: is there a chance that Craig Breslow and the front office decides to bring him back for even one more year?

The quality’s still there, no question. His cutter still works well alongside his heater, he continues to limit hard contact, and he continues to punch dudes out while keeping walks at bay. I guess the price for a 38-year-old reliever is the big sticking point here, and I’m not sure what a reasonable contract would be to retain his services, but it’s an idea that the Red Sox brass should certainly entertain, especially considering how the bullpen has been in flux as of late.

For now: I’m just happy to see our guy cook… and that I can continue to make Coldplay jokes on this website. My apologies to Bryan Joiner. [Editor’s follow-up note: apologies accepted.]

The Pride of Milton Rides Again

Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

God bless Rich Hill, man. Who wouldn’t want to be able to chill for a few months into the MLB season, coach some little league ball with your kid, get a call from your hometown team out of nowhere at the age of 44, and then proceed to cook against a divisional rival with some of your patented junk? That’s the American Dream if you ask me, baby. Probably a more attainable American Dream than buying a house today, amirite?!

Who cares if his fastball was registering as…well, not a fastball?

It’s a bit bizarre (and probably a bit worrisome given the implications) that we—in the big 2024—are relying on Rich fucking Hill to eat some of these innings during a pivotal stretch, but that’s kinda why we love baseball, no? Fun stories like these? Sure, the bullpen has been disastrous for over a month now, but in a cosmic sense the return of Dick Mountain is fun. He’s our generations Jamie Moyer, and I appreciate that!

It’s even more fun if he’s actually gonna be pitching well! Who’s to say how his slop will play upon further outings, but it’s hard to get off to a better start than a pair of perfect, four-out appearances with three strikeouts to boot. (Just ignore Sunday, please.) Milton hive stand up!

Personally: I think the Sox should bring him back every single season until his arm falls off. Would be great commitment to the bit if you ask me. Maybe that’s why I’m writing here and not working in the front office, I dunno.

Song of the Week: “Real Love Baby” by Father John Misty

No particular reason for this one, just a great track from Mr. Tillman. Hey, did you know that Father John Misty was the drummer for Fleet Fo—*dozens of bricks are thrown at me*

Enjoy your holiday, folks! Same time and same place next week. Go Sox.