Monday Morning Brushback: The Season Has Actually Begun Now

The Red Sox week in review dives into Crochet and Campbell’s new deals, Tanner Houck’s first few starts, and a salute to the 1975 Red Sox.

I hope you all enjoyed the first week of the 2025 Red Sox season!

Man, the first game of the season this past Wednesday was awesome. It made the extra long Spring Training—the one that ran into the first few days of April—worth it. I thought it was strange that they continued to play pre-season games in Texas as opposed to Florida, but I suppose that extra practice got the boys ready to sweep a short two-game series in Baltimore before heading back to Fenway.

Jokes aside, this week was more like it. After a sluggish 1-4 start, we’ve seen five wins thanks in large part to a weekend sweep against the St. Louis Cardinals, two long-term extensions handed out to key pillars of what we hope will be the next great team in Boston, one kick ass home run celebration, and just as many Nintendo console reveals since we last spoke here on the MMBB. Maybe Mario Kart World will be the new Fortnite for the team; maybe one of our pitchers gets carpal tunnel syndrome from racing on Rainbow Road too often.

It really does feel like the season is underway now. I know this is just an anecdote, but I can tell you that the atmosphere at Fenway Park and around the area on Friday was electric. This town’s always been a baseball town and always will be a baseball town, even if that passion across the region can go dormant from time to time. There’s legitimate excitement for this team, and that hope felt warranted during this past week because of what happened both on and off of the field. We really are back, baby.

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

The Boston Red Sox: Extended Edition

Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

It’s time for Garrett Crochet and Kristian Campbell to start house hunting.

Within the span of just a few days, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow did the damn thing…or, in this case, things. The front office reached long-term agreements with their new ace as well as one of their trio of coveted youngsters. Crochet signed a $170 million deal that will keep him in town through at least his age 31 season in 2030, while Campbell’s contract is for eight years at $60 million (a pair of club options in 2033 and 2034 could bring the deal’s total value up to $100 million).

So, you should probably get used to watching these guys.

Let’s start with the southpaw. I appreciate that Breslow’s a guy who seems to work in the shadows; that front office is like Fort Knox, because nothing has been getting leaked. The Crochet-to-Boston dream seemed to be losing steam this winter before it was ultimately pulled off. The prospect of landing Alex Bregman felt fleeting with a month and change left until the first game of the year, and then he put pen to paper. Now, after it was initially reported that an extension would not be discussed between the club and Crochet in the middle of the season, Crochet is here to stay for the immediate future following those exact discussions.

Real G’s move in silence like lasagna—that’s a piece of advice that Breslow has clearly taken to heart.

If you recall, I tried to map out what exactly a Crochet deal would look like in an article that was posted here on OTM just a few weeks ago. While I did say that I wouldn’t have blamed either party for letting things play out throughout 2025’s entirety before re-entering negotiations, I did say this in regards to figuring out what average annual value mark would be suitable for his services at this point in time:

I do think that number would have to be ticked up a bit if a deal were to be signed now, though—and it’ll take a pretty steep hike if Crochet has a good 2025 campaign. A deal for $25 million a year right now would put Crochet at the same pay scale as Jack Flaherty (who just signed as a free agent but who doesn’t have as much upside as the lefty does going forward), Robbie Ray (a Cy Young winner who’s dealt with injury setbacks recently), and Sonny Gray (a totally solid veteran).

Are any of those three pitchers perfect comps for Crochet? No, of course not; they’re all considerably older than the 25-going-on-26-year-old, and Crochet would probably want more than that on the open market regardless of what happens in 2025. I think an AAV somewhere just short of the $28.4 million that Blake Snell is making this year on the new contract that he just penned with the Daaaaaaaaaahdjurz a few months ago in free agency would get a deal with Crochet done now.

Sure as shit, Crochet’s deal clocks in at an AAV of around $28.3 million—just short of Snell’s new contract with LA.

And y’know what? That’s a perfectly fine contract for Crochet. I know he didn’t have a direct apples-to-apples comparison to work with—a lefty in his mid-20’s with nasty stuff and two years of team control but not much of a track record as a starter—and that any extension for him after just one start in a Red Sox uniform would’ve represented somewhat of a risk. Some risks are worth taking, though. I think the fact that Crochet’s situation is so unique works to the team’s benefit. If the organization believes in him enough to leverage the prospect capital that they did to acquire him, it would behoove them to make that financial commitment as well. Now, you’ve got someone with the potential to be the best pitcher in baseball—yes, the best—entering his prime years at a fair price.

You take that risk every single time. Almost as a thank you for taking that risk, Crochet threw eight shutout innings against Baltimore in his first post-extension start en route to stopping a three-game skid.

As for the Campbell deal, I appreciate that we’ve now got our own Atlanta Braves-esque contract extension for players who were still in their pre-arb years. However, I’m not sure if 1% of Kristian’s salary will also be donated to the team’s charitable foundation.

The deal is clearly a sweetheart one for the team, I can’t call it anything other than that. Campbell’s already shown what may lie in store for him during the first handful of games in his debut year; 8/$60M ain’t much for the team to lock that in, and exercising those club options will be no-brainer decisions if everything with KC’s progression works out the way we all hope they will.

I wouldn’t blame you for wondering why Campbell would’ve taken the deal now, especially if it eats into his earning potential as a veteran. Not every player’s motivations are the same, though, and Campbell now has generational, FU money for he and his family for decades to come after just playing a few games at the highest level. It only takes one moment for a career trajectory to change; to lock in an eight-to-nine figure, fully guaranteed deal at just 22 years old is something that I think all of us would be fine with taking. Plus: he’ll have another chance to get a bite of the apple in his early 30’s.

All in all: bravo to Breslow and Co. for getting these deals done.

One Wild and Crazy Guy

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Tanner Houck hasn’t come out of the gates strong to begin the new year, has he?

He’s pitched 9.2 innings across his pair of starts. In that work, he’s given up seven earned runs while striking out eight and walking five. The rough 7.18 FIP might have to do with the fact that his *gulps* 65.5% hard hit rate is in the bottom 5% of the league as of Sunday, according to Savant. He’s not missing enough bats, he’s getting squared up pretty often, and he’s just not been as effective in these first two starts.

What’s going on here?

I think his second start against Baltimore can reveal just exactly what might be happening. Red Sox Stats posted the location of his pitches; “erratic” seems like an apt word.

So the sweeper—his primary offering—was missing the zone pretty significantly at times, while the splitter had multiple instances of not really splitting; you can’t have that pitch in on the hands.

However, it hasn’t been all bad for Houck in spite of the surface level numbers. He was able to get some more bite on the sweeper in the second outing after fears of the movement not being up to snuff against the Rangers, as his spin rate on the sweeper and the sinker—his two most prominent pitches in 2024 as well as within the limited 2025 sample size—have increased compared to last season.

So even if Houck isn’t missing a ton of bats thus far (his chase and whiff rates have both been below league average), his stuff can still be pretty nasty. At that point, it’s just about command. Similar to what I said about Rafael Devers at the plate in last week’s Brushback, Houck can make that adjustment with more work. His 11.6% walk rate so far, if extrapolated across a full season, would represent a damn near 100% increase from his walk rate in 2024. His walk rate hasn’t been higher than 9% since the COVID season; this is not the guy who Tanner Houck is. It’s also hard to think that his hard hit rate will be that high over the course of the year.

I know Houck’s 2024 didn’t end as beautifully it began; his 4.23 ERA in the second half was a far cry from the 2.54 ERA he posted on the way to earning an All-Star nod. I also know he didn’t look amazing in Spring Training. I’m not overly concerned about him, though. Houck should be able to reel in the command as we progress through the first part of 2025, and he can get back to being an impact starter even if he doesn’t make another All-Star team. This team is gonna need him to do so if they want to make a run at the pennant.

Shakedown 1975

Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

No hard hitting analysis in this final part of the article—just a big shout out to the 1975 Red Sox being in the house for the home opener on Friday. The Red Sox know how to make a great pre-game ceremony.

As mentioned earlier: I was in attendance on Friday, alongside my parents and my sister. Of course, as someone born in 1996, I didn’t grow up with a personal connection to one of the most important groups in the franchise’s history. My dad was nine when they made their run to the World Series, though, and let me just say: it was so cool to see him geek out when all of those guys came out from under the big ass flag in left. Dewey, Rice, Rico, Spaceman, Carbo, and his personally favorite: Freddy Lynn—that shit ruled.

Of course, Yaz throwing out the first pitch was especially awesome.

One day, I hope to have that moment with my future kids—geeking out to the ‘04 Sox while they (hopefully) appreciate how awesome it is to see them reunited. I’m confident that they’re gonna have a similar moment down the line with their kids, because the club is making the investments to ensure continuity with this roster! For the last couple of years, there’s been a bit of a revolving door down the roster. But now: Raf, Crochet, and Campbell could be parts of the team—alongside a Triston Casas or a Roman Anthony or a Marcelo Mayer or whoever endears themselves next—that makes lifelong memories for a whole new generation of fans. That’s a beautiful thing, and I think we might be at the start of that next memorable era.

Song of the Week: “Happiness” by The 1975

Keeping with the 1975 theme.

Same time and same place next week, friends! Go Sox.