Monday Morning Brushback: Welp…

The Red Sox week in review dives into Andrew Bailey’s pitching philosophy, Masataka Yoshida, and Trevor Story’s potential comeback in 2024.

…That was a fuckin’ disaster.

No reason to sugarcoat things this week, folks. After an encouraging set in Houston which saw the Red Sox take two of three (and, really, they should’ve swept the series) from the same club that had kicked their teeth in at Fenway just a few days prior, the positive vibes succumbed to venom poisoning courtesy of some NL-pennant-defending Sneks over the weekend. One nice step forward, one big step back.

Essentially, I think this three-game sweep at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks is the last time the 2024 Red Sox can have a royal fuck-up and not have it result in their hopes of playing in October being burnt to ash. Sure, it was a train wreck of a weekend at America’s Most Beloved Ballpark™, but the dream isn’t dead yet.

Key word being “yet,” though. Big qualifier.

4.5 games — the current deficit that the Sox are facing in the race for the third and final wild card spot in the Junior Circuit — is quite a few games at this point of the year. It ain’t nothing. A trio of games against the Minnesota Twins in September could result in ground quickly getting gained or lost as we get down to the wire, but if the Sox are going to make it into the dance then it’ll have to be off of the work they put in themselves. That work has to be, to borrow a phrase from the offseason, done at full throttle.

What I’m getting at is: these next few weeks-worth of games against teams ranging anywhere from “meh” to “could quite literally be the worst team in the modern era of this sport” can’t just be a positive stretch for Boston. No, these next few weeks need to act as a massive statement.

It probably isn’t enough to simply win this 4.75 game series against Toronto to begin the week—the Red Sox need to take at least four. They need to take at least two out of three against both Detroit and the Mets. You never go into any series expecting a sweep—any team can lose to anyone on any given day—but you can’t let the White Sox leave Boston with even one victory.

All of that might seem a bit over-the-top or drastic (who the hell sets the standard of winning four out of five games against the same team?), but there’s a saying for desperate times. If the Red Sox don’t make these big strides over the next few weeks, then they’ll be feeling an extra amount of pressure heading into yet another tough stretch to end the year, where they meet up with all four of their AL East foes along with the aforementioned Twinkies.

Long story short: they better lock the hell in.

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

Bailey’s Bad Breaks

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Maybe the honeymoon phase of pitching coach Andrew Bailey’s philosophy is over.

The All-Star break, while just a wee bit arbitrary, is a good point in time to establish trends like team ERA. That’s why it’s been so jarring to see the Red Sox fall in that category from fifth-best in baseball at the time of the All-Star Game (3.63) to 21st (4.19). After the soaring highs of the first half, the Boston pitching staff has come back down to Earth in dramatic fashion.

That first half pitching philosophy, as highlighted earlier this past week by our very own Bryan Joiner, was defined by the principal of not relying so much on the fastball. It worked wonders at first and it was lauded by many across Red Sox Nation—myself included.

But, as we all know, baseball is a game of adjustments. Hitters across MLB got wise to the ways of the Red Sox pitching strategy and have turned the tables since mid-July. Chalk it up to more cement mixer breaking balls than we’re willing to stomach, chalk it up to arms being taxed more due to an added emphasis on those breaking balls compared to heaters, chalk it up to a lack of execution, even if the thought process behind offering a certain pitch makes sense, chalk it up to good ol’ clean pieces of hitting by the opposition, chalk it up to Mercury being in retrograde (I have no idea if it was/is, I’m not a Scientology guy). Chalk it up to whatever you want.

However it’s sliced, as Mr. Joiner noted, something’s got to change. Luckily, I’m confident that Bailey and the boys can do exactly that. Perhaps it’s not a change that totally bears fruit this season, but I believe Andrew Bailey, Craig Breslow, and the rest of the organization is smart enough to make the needed changes.

In an article from The Athletic that explains some of this stuff wayyyyyy better than I ever could, Bailey was quoted about finding the ideal mix for guys on the mound:

“There’s a balancing act in the game, the cat and mouse game, so to say,” Bailey added. “And it’s not that we dislike fastballs, it’s just that it’s the game of what you do really well. We’ll never really know what the other person is thinking. And as soon as we kind of start playing that game too much, we can start second-guessing ourselves.”

I’m glad to see that idea hasn’t changed much since the start of the season: stick with your best stuff.

Bumps in the road were probably to be expected after such a dazzling first half. In hindsight, hose performances were probably unsustainable. Bailey’s been both a pitcher and a pitching coach at this level before, and I’m sure he knows as well as anybody that adjustments can and will be made without abandoning the overarching philosophy. The organizational thought process for the arms can remain in spite of these last few weeks of generally underwhelming outings. They just have to find that balance while staying fluid.

It’s going to be interesting to see what changes are and aren’t made on the mound heading into the final month of the regular season. It could tell us a lot about Bailey’s staff going forward.

A Macho Man Summer

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There are no half measures at the plate for outfielder Masataka Yoshida when he’s really cookin’. When he’s in the zone, he’s REALLY in the zone. Maybe AutoZone should consider giving him an endorsement deal, but I digress.

I know I just wrote about him the other day, but the Macho Man has found his stride to an extent that I can’t resist diving in on his again. Speaking of that All-Star Break: Yoshida’s hitting numbers were already impressive when he was featured on the Brushback a few weeks ago, but they’ve only gotten better over the past two weeks. He’s hitting .342 with 13 extra-base hits in the 32 games he’s appeared in since the Mid-Summer Classic, pushing that OPS on the year over the .800 mark. He’s squaring up the ball about a third of the time, and he’s continuing to maintain authority over the strike zone—he ain’t whiffing at much, and he’s not going down by way of the K often.

Someone who’s smarter than me: could you please tell me what tweak Yoshida made to his swing to help him drive the ball into the outfield (as opposed to directly into the infield grass) so much? If I knew, maybe I’d be working for the team as a hitting coach.

Savant has logged his average launch angle in 2024 at 10.4 degrees. That’s still below the league average of around 12 degrees, sure, but it’s a far cry from his mark of 3.9 degrees in 2023. What’s changed since then? Is it a matter of just being more acclimated to the bigs? Was there a mechanical change that’s been implemented more often this season? Did he change up his routine before games? Maybe he changed what cereal he eats in the morning?

It’s a night and day difference between the Yoshida who serves up double play balls like they’re going out of style and the Yoshida who deploys the lumber with authority. If whatever change he’s made heading into 2024 to lift the ball more is something that can be utilized on a more consistent basis — and if he doesn’t magically lose his plate discipline in a “Space Jam” type of scenario — then we might have a consistent offensive producer on our hands for the remainder of his contract. Just don’t ask him to leg out many triples, though.

Alex Cora has fawned over Yoshida’s ability to make the lineup deeper when he’s hot, and he’s 100% right to do so.

The Story Continues?

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

How about this for a surprising story: MassLive reported this week that there’s a “real strong chance” that we see infielder Trevor Story back in action before the end of the season.

I certainly didn’t see this coming. I had already resigned myself to the idea that we wouldn’t be seeing him in a Red Sox uniform until 2025. The man was crying after his shoulder injury earlier this year, for (literally, I guess) crying out loud! He deserves some credit for working his way back to this point, though, and reinforcements for the final push can’t hurt.

Now, if we do see Story at some point in the near future, I think it’s clear that we shouldn’t expect the world from him. Getting back into the swing of things at the plate (hehe, geddit? “Swing” of things? We love sporting puns on OTM, folks, don’t we?) ain’t easy, and Story’s output on offense in the albeit limited action we’ve seen from him in 2024 (eight games; hard to take much away from that I suppose) wasn’t anything to write home about. His skills on defense would be a welcome addition, especially since they allows Ceddanne Rafaela to patrol center more often — which is where the lion’s share of his defensive value stems from, compared to shortstop.

If for nothing else, maybe a return to action for Story will help set the tone for a bounce back next year. The future of the middle infield in Boston is an interesting discussion when you consider Story’s contract, David Hamilton’s production this season, and Marcelo Mayer’s continued development in the minors. Getting Story back on the field could help ensure that the Red Sox are getting as much production from those positions as possible down the line, even if that 2024 cameo is just a minor step in that process.

Song of the Week: “Don’t Look Back in Anger” by Oasis

Given the announcement that’s coming Tuesday in regards to the greatest Beatles cover band ever, it was never gonna be any other song besides this.

Same time and place next week, friends! Go Sox.