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Red Sox Offseason Preview: Building For Contention

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The Boston Red Sox have money to spend and players to trade. After a .500 season, the Sox have the ability to build a World Series contender. Before we look ahead at the offseason and what’s possible in 2025, let’s look at what went right and wrong for the Red Sox in 2024.

Red Sox 2024 Offseason Preview

A Tale of Two Halves

The first half of 2024 was a surprise for the Red Sox and their fans. The team was 10 games above .500 and holding a firm grasp on a wild card position. Breakout seasons from Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck gave Boston an immense boost in both the lineup and rotation. Rookie outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela filled in at shortstop after Trevor Story suffered a shoulder injury, and journeyman Dominic Smith replaced Triston Casas, who also fell victim to a long-term injury. Despite adversities, the Red Sox found a way to succeed.

At the half, Boston’s starters ranked fifth in the majors with a 3.56 ERA, and the bullpen ranked 11th with a 3.67 ERA. Furthermore, the offense took the identity of having the need for speed. They ranked second in doubles and triples, and sixth in stolen bases. Aggressive baserunning and dominant pitching helped pave the path to stacking wins and limiting losses.

While the first 95 games of the year were a success for Boston, the following 67 acted as a nightmare. The Sox rotation failed to deliver quality starts, and the bullpen gave up leads almost every day. During that time, high-leverage relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Justin Slaten all missed time simultaneously. To fill the void, the Red Sox acquired James Paxton, Luis García, and Lucas Sims at the deadline. Paxton added rotation depth, but in his third start partially tore his right calf muscle. His season at this point was over. García, who dominated for the Los Angeles Angels in the first half, was abysmal for Boston, posting a 8.22 ERA in 15 1/3 IP. Sims, like Garcia, was bad in high-leverage situations.

The reinforcements from Craig Breslow were a complete failure and so was the second half. At the season-ending press conference, Alex Cora said that he strongly believes that this year was the “last struggle” and success is on the horizon.

Positional Needs

The Red Sox go into this offseason with a decent understanding of who will be on the field in 2025. The infield will be filled by Rafael Devers at third, Trevor Story at shortstop, and Triston Casas at first. Outfielders will undoubtedly be at least Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela. That leaves holes at second base and an outfield position.

The final outfield opening can be filled by a couple of candidates. First, the Red Sox could bring back veteran Tyler O’Neill, who had a good 2024 season with Boston. He hit 31 home runs in just 113 games.

Another candidate is No.1 prospect Roman Anthony. He will be a part of the Red Sox in 2025, but the looming question is if that will be on Opening Day or as a depth piece who will get the call at some point in the season.

Finally, a trade could be made that can fix a couple of problems at once. The Red Sox could get extremely aggressive and make a call to the San Diego Padres for Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres are in the process of shedding payroll while staying competitive. Boston could put an intriguing offer on the table for the right-handed superstar, who is in the midst of a 14-year, $340 million deal. He would add the right-handed bat and elite defense the Red Sox are in desperate need for.

Second base is a question mark for the Red Sox going into 2025. Quite frankly, it’s been a question mark ever since 2018, when Dustin Pedroia‘s career came to an abrupt end. The Red Sox will most likely stay in-house for second base. The top choices currently are Vaughn Grissom, star prospect Kristian Campbell, and David Hamilton. This decision will be made based on performance during spring training in February.

Pitching Upgrades

After watching the second half of 2024, it showed the Red Sox need a frontline starting pitcher and a complete overhaul of the bullpen. The current rotation heading into the offseason consists of Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito, whose first year with the Red Sox was a wash due to injury. While there are some interesting prospects down in Triple-A Worcester, the Red Sox will likely use those arms as depth pieces in 2025. So, where do the Sox look to acquire a frontline arm?

The obvious choice through trade is inking an agreement with the Seattle Mariners. Seattle has a plethora of dependable arms and a pitiful offense which creates a match made in heaven for them and Boston. Their rotation includes Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo. Any of these arms would boost the Boston rotation.

Free agency is an area where Boston can add important rotation and bullpen pieces this winter. Frontline pitchers such as Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Shane Bieber all are compelling options. Interesting free agent relief options include Tanner Scott, Chris Martin, A.J. Minter, and Jonathan Loaisiga.

What Can We Expect?

The Red Sox have about $63 million to spend before entering the first apron of the luxury tax. While it’s a huge number, it’s unclear how close Boston will get to the tax line, or, potentially go into the tax and fully commit. Boston has steered clear of the luxury tax for the past two seasons now. There are plenty of avenues that can be taken this winter to shape the Sox into a contender, and time will tell which street will be taken. Alex Cora gave fans a hint that ownership is ready to spend and commit on the 310 to Left podcast where he stated “I think the front office is committed to take care of you. You guys have taken care of us for so many years, it’s about time to take care of you.”

Fans have heard comments like this before, last year the “full throttle” comment by Tom Warner may come to mind. Red Sox CEO Sam Kenney may have hinted to that comment at the season-ending press conference where he expressed “Talk is cheap… but that’s what we’re going to work on this offseason.”

The true colors of ownership and Craig Breslow will show in the coming months. Hopefully, in 2025, the Red Sox will once again be a competitive and contending club.

 

Photo Credit: © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

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