Some offensive heaters led to a shake up in the top of the order in July.
Usually after the trade deadline, you can spot the teams that are going for it and those that are punting. Although the Red Sox seem to fall into the former camp, as they made several additions ahead of Tuesday’s cutoff, they were more tinkering transactions than all-in gambits.
That’s not a bad thing, as Jake Reiser wrote, for a team very much in the playoff race, strengthening some weaker parts of the roster even marginally could go a long way. That is especially true for a Red Sox team that started to show some cracks during the last half of July. Coming out of the All-Star break, the Red Sox had boosted their playoff odds to 53%, per FanGraphs. Since then, they’ve gone 4-8 and watched those odds drop to 37.7%.
Just as the team’s performance has been wanting, we’ve also seen some regression from players on the roster who helped carry them into the playoff picture, while others have held the line and kept things from getting too heinous. We’re here today to look at both groups and everyone in between in the latest edition of our monthly power rankings.
If you’ve been following along all season, you know the rules: Every player who made an appearance in at least one game for the Red Sox at the MLB level during the last month and is still within the organization are eligible. (Eagle-eyed viewers will notice I pulled this nearly verbatim from the last week’s rankings). That criteria eliminates several players from the list this time around, including Brad Keller, Bobby Dalbec, Vaughn Grissom, Isaiah Campbell, Tyler Heineman and Chase Anderson.
For how I actually put the rankings together, it’s based largely on on-field performance during the month with a splash of season-long production and a sprinkle of player vibes mixed in. If you’re looking for something a bit more scientific, sorry to disappoint. OK, let’s get ranking.
33. Trey Wingenter (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)
Wingenter, a 30-year-old right-handed reliever, bookended the month with two less-than-stellar performances and was designated for assignment on July 30.
32. Yohan Ramírez (Previous Rank: 30)
After being claimed off waivers on July 28, Ramírez pitched 1 1⁄3 innings against the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, allowing three earned runs. That was all the chance he got before being DFA’d the next day.
31. Jamie Westbrook (Previous Rank: 30)
Westbrook received scant playing time (10 games, 24 plate appearance) and a similarly small wRC+ (15) in July. He was demoted to Triple-A on Wednesday.
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30. Reese McGuire (Previous Rank: 28)
When the Red Sox traded for Danny Jansen, the writing was on the call for McGuire, especially given his 30 wRC+ in July. The backup catcher was DFA’d last Sunday.
29. Greg Weissert (Previous Rank: 19)
Finally, a player that wasn’t recently DFA’d. *Holds finger to earpiece while looking quizzically into the middle distance* I’m being told that the Red Sox used one of Weissert’s options to demote him to Triple-A earlier this week. For a guy who looked pretty solid earlier in the season, it was a quick descent for the right-handed reliever, who walked eight batters in 11 2⁄3 innings and posted a 6.17 ERA in July.
28. Bailey Horn (Previous Rank: 29)
Horn threw 4 2⁄3 scoreless innings of relief across two outings in the beginning of the month and then didn’t see game action against until July 21. Since then he has been OK if you ignore an implosion against the Colorado Rockies on July 24 and bad if you don’t.
27. Enmanuel Valdez (Previous Rank: 9)
After strong June, Valdez continued to be a spark for the offense in early July, but he was sent down to Triple-A on July 9 and hasn’t made it back.
26. Brennan Bernardino (Previous Rank: 17)
Bernardino struggled quite a bit in July, with an ERA of 12.71 in just 5 2⁄3 innings of work. Even with such a disastrous stretch, Bernardino is still striking out nearly a batter per inning while logging solid run prevention numbers (3.03 ERA and 3.22 FIP) overall.
25. David Hamilton (Previous Rank: 8)
Hamilton has turned back into the light-hitting middle infielder we’d come to expect. He had just a 40 wRC+ in 71 July plate appearances with virtually no pop and a 31% strikeout rate. Although he did steal five baes during the month, that’s not all that helpful if he can’t get on base.
24. Josh Winckowski (Previous Rank: 12)
Thanks to a very strong finish t June, Winckowski rose quite a bit in our previous rankings, but he fell back down the latter in July. He walked more batters than he struck out in July and after a rough showing in a start against the New York Yankees on July 6, has been banished to bullpen duty.
23. Cam Booser (Previous Rank: 26)
Booser made a trip down to Worcester last month but got called back up on July 12. He had thrown nothing but scoreless innings during the month until letting up a run in 1/3 of an inning against the Yankees on July 28.
22. Justin Slaten (Previous Rank: 16)
Slaten landed on the injured list after a few appearances to start July, during which he allowed two earned runs over 2 2⁄3 innings. He remains on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation, but he’s been solid overall when healthy (3.38 ERA and 2.44 FIP in 42 2⁄3 innings).
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21. James Paxton (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)
Welcome back, Big Maple. Paxton might not be the playoff-odds-boosting starter Red Sox fans dreamed of getting at the trade deadline, but he remains a serviceable arm for the back of the rotation. However, he didn’t exactly impress in his first start back in Boston, allowing six runs (three earned) without getting out of the fifth inning against the Mariners.
20. Zack Kelly (Previous Rank: 10)
Kelly avoids falling out of the top 20 due to volume more than anything. He threw the sixth-most innings of any Red Sox pitcher in July despite a 5.25 ERA and 8.16 FIP in that time. Of course, he’s been much better on the season (2.61 ERA), even if his peripherals are raising some red flags (4.71 FIP).
19. Chris Martin (Previous Rank: 11)
Martin is only this far down because he didn’t pitch for most of the month. He was placed on the 15-day IL after a single scoreless outing on July 3 and has been working his way back since.
18. Romy Gonzalez (Previous Rank: 23)
Gonzalez continues to be a solid role player off the bench, posting a 132 wRC+ in 51 plate appearances while logging time at every infield position in July.
17. Lucas Sims (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)
Another deadline addition by the Red Sox, Sims’ stuff grades out very well. So far, we’ve only gotten a brief glimpse, as he threw 2/3 of an inning without allowing a run on Wednesday.
16. Danny Jansen (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)
It’s unclear if the Red Sox traded for Jansen as a long-term play or not, but they’ve got to be hoping he rediscovers his power. So far, he doesn’t have any bombs, but he has gone 4-for-7 in his first two games with the Red Sox.
15. Rob Refsnyder (Previous Rank: 7)
Refsnyder was more or less an average hitter in July (96 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances), cooling off from more impressive performances earlier in the season.
14. Connor Wong (Previous Rank: 4)
Wong’s batting average dropped precipitously during July, leading to severe dip in his offensive production (80 wRC+ in 84 plate appearances). It was easily the worst month of the season for him and sows some doubt about how much of a breakout year this will end up looking like for him.
13. Cooper Criswell (Previous Rank: 25)
What did Criswell get for throwing seven shutout innings against the Rockies on July 23? A demotion to the bullpen. Strikeouts are still too rare from the right-hander, but he’s been effective nonetheless, including since he came back to the bigs from Triple-A in mid-July.
12. Kenley Jansen (Previous Rank: 5)
As these rankings so often remind me, a single month is not a very useful amount of time to evaluate a reliever. Jansen struggled in July, particularly in series against the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, as he blew saves against each team. His previous (and only other) blown save came back in April.
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11. Brayan Bello (Previous Rank: 18)
July was an improved but imperfect month from Bello. The right-hander was brilliant against Miami in first start of the month. He then struck out 11 batters in his next outing but fell down the stretch. After middling results in his next few starts, he closed the month with a solid effort against the Mariners on Wednesday. On the whole, he posted a 4.29 ERA and 4.00 FIP in July while leading the team in innings pitched (35 2/3).
10. Kutter Crawford (Previous Rank: 13)
Crawford did post a 3.64 ERA in July, but that number is belied by a less rosy 5.83 FIP, which was particularly battered following his last two starts of the month. However, Crawford was transcendent across his first three starts in July, as he combined to throw 20 innings and allow a single run while striking out 15 and walking one batter in those outings. It made for an oddly shaped month, but the brilliance outweighed the struggles for me.
9. Dominic Smith (Previous Rank: 21)
Smith was hitting like it was 2019 in July, racking up a 150 wRC+ while hitting three of his six home runs on the season. He has now climbed up to be an exactly league average bat and, more importantly, into the top 10 of these rankings.
8. Ceddanne Rafaela (Previous Rank: 14)
Rafaela had much better luck at the plate in July, posting a 119 wRC+ despite continuing to walk at an inconceivably low level. He also stole five bases and continued to find power, launching another four home runs, giving him 12 on the season. He clearly still needs to refine his approach, but July was a good sign that he’s getting better day by day.
7. Nick Pivetta (Previous Rank: 20)
Aside from a pummeling against the Rockies on July 24, Pivetta was very strong last month. He recorded 10 strikeouts in three of five starts and notched a 4.34 ERA and 2.54 FIP across 29 innings (including the Colorado blow up). We all know Pivetta will fall prey to a disastrous start from time to time, but when he’s cooking, it’s a sight to behold.
6. Wilyer Abreu (Previous Rank: 15)
Abreu got his season back on track with a 122 wRC+ in 68 plate appearances last month, even if strikeouts were a bit more of a problem for him than they’d been previously. Abreu is knocking on the door of a two-win season and has more than established himself as a solid regular at this point.
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5. Masataka Yoshida (Previous Rank: 22)
Yoshida finally rediscovered his batting prowess. In July, he slashed .333/.411/.487, good enough for a 150 wRC+. He even corked a three long balls, more than doubling his total for the season. If Yoshida goes on a tear like he did early in 2023, the Red Sox will be sprinting down the stretch.
4. Tanner Houck (Previous Rank: 3)
Although he’s still the ace of the rotation, Houck started to slip in July. His strikeout rate was way down, while he walked batters at a higher clip than usual. In addition, some of his peripheral numbers started to crawl backward. He still ate up innings (relative to the current era), lasting six frames in three of his four starts last month, but the Red Sox will need a big bounce back from him in August. The only reason he didn’t fall further here is because of how dominant he’d been in the first few months of the year.
3. Tyler O’Neill (Previous Rank: 6)
We’ve seen how streaky O’Neill can be, but luckily, he continued on the hot side in July. The right-hander basher launched another six home runs in the month while slashing .306/.368/.588 and posting a 159 wRC+. The Red Sox may not have gotten a high-profile right-handed bat at the deadline, but O’Neill has been fitting the bill nicely most of the year.
2. Jarren Duran (Previous Rank: 1)
All hail your All-Star Game MVP. Duran also continued to show out in games that count toward the playoff race, turning out a smooth .306/.356/.546 slash line while providing plus value on the base paths and in the field. He only gave up the top spot because the guy ahead of him was even better.
1. Rafael Devers (Previous Rank: 2)
Devers has a 162 wRC+ on the season, tying him with Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles for the seventh-best mark in baseball. Although that illustrates how good Devers has been all year, he was really in his bag during July. He put up a sizzling slash line of .362/.430/.702 (yes, that slugging percentage starts with a seven), swatted six home runs, walked more than 11 percent of the time and nearly had a 200 wRC+. He even capped off the month with a walkoff knock. For most of the season, the storylines have focused on Duran and Houck breaking out, but we’re currently seeing Devers put up his best season as a pro. Bear witness.