The Red Sox made a big investment in Ceddanne Rafaela last season, extending the youngster on an eight-year, $50MM deal in April. At the time, he had just 38 MLB games under his belt. They weren’t the most successful 38 games, either. Rafaela had a .672 OPS and 76 wRC+ with an abysmal 6:37 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Despite his blistering speed, he only had four stolen bases to that point, and he had already been caught stealing twice. Yet, his elite defensive capabilities must have helped the Red Sox look past his struggles on the other side of the ball.
Rafaela was long praised for his outfield defense as a prospect, and he lived up to the hype in the majors. By the end of the 2024 season, he had racked up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a +7 Fielding Run Value in just 748.0 career innings as a center fielder. On the one hand, we have to be careful when looking at defensive metrics in such a small sample size. On the other hand, if Rafaela could keep those numbers up over a full season of work, he’d be one of the best fielders in the sport.
As if his performance in center field weren’t impressive enough, Rafaela has also appeared in 87 games at shortstop, 14 games at second base, and 4 games at third in his brief MLB tenure. He had plenty of infield experience in the minors. In fact, he began his pro career as a full-time infielder in 2018 and didn’t play the outfield until 2021. However, he took to center field so naturally that it soon became his primary position. By the time he made his MLB debut, it seemed safe to say he was a full-time center fielder.
But not so fast. As Trevor Story spent significant time on the IL in 2023 and ’24, the Red Sox needed help in the infield. Rafaela started five games at shortstop during his brief big league cup of coffee in 2023. The following year, the Red Sox temporarily named him their primary shortstop when Story went down with a shoulder injury in early April. He ended up playing more shortstop than any position and more shortstop than anyone else on Boston’s roster.
Rafaela’s versatility proved to be invaluable to the Red Sox in 2024. Unfortunately, it quickly became clear that he wasn’t more than a backup plan at short. His defense at the position was poor according to just about every available metric. Over 692.0 career innings at shortstop from 2023-24, Rafaela has made six fielding errors and four throwing errors. He has -3 Defensive Runs Saved and a -8 Fielding Run Value. Once again, it’s important to take defensive metrics in a small sample size with a grain of salt. Still, it’s impossible not to notice the world of difference between Rafaela’s performance in center field and at shortstop.
With that in mind, it was hardly controversial when Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow told reporters (including Sean McAdam of MassLive) that the Red Sox plan to keep Rafaela in center field “as much as possible.” With Rafaela in center full-time, the Red Sox could play 2024 Gold Glove finalist Jarren Duran in left field and 2024 Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu in right, giving them, perhaps, the best defensive outfield in the sport. Yet, McAdam raises the question of what Boston will do once star prospect Roman Anthony is ready for the majors. That shouldn’t take long, considering Anthony put up a .982 OPS and a 162 wRC+ in 35 games at Triple-A last season. Neither Anthony nor Duran is quite as talented as Rafaela in center field, but both can play the position. More to the point, Rafaela has shown far less promise at the plate. Duran has an .832 OPS and a 126 wRC+ over the past two seasons, while Anthony has spent the last two years tearing up the minor leagues. Similarly, Abreu has a .794 OPS and a 117 wRC+ over 160 MLB games. No matter how strong Rafaela’s defense might be, his .664 OPS and 79 wRC+ in 180 career games pale in comparison to those numbers.
Despite a potential logjam in the outfield, Breslow made it clear that the Red Sox don’t want Rafaela playing the infield (per McAdam). That’s not exactly a shocking revelation. After all, Rafael Devers has third base on lock, and Story should be the full-time shortstop as long as he’s healthy. Boston doesn’t have a guaranteed starter at second base, but David Hamilton was a stronger offensive player and a better infield defender than Rafaela in 2024. Vaughn Grissom has yet to show that he’s ready for regular playing time, but he’s still young, and presumably, the Red Sox would like to give him a chance to prove himself after an injury-plagued 2024 campaign.
Ultimately, however, this isn’t really about the other options in the infield. Simply put, the Red Sox want Rafaela to focus on the position where he’s most valuable. Indeed, Breslow thinks that moving between the infield and the outfield might have hampered his performance in both spots: “I’m not sure we saw the best of him even defensively because of the fact that he was switching back and forth between center and shortstop.”
It’s hard to argue with Breslow’s logic. At the same time, it’s worth wondering what the Red Sox plan to do with Rafaela once Anthony demands a promotion. Similarly, it’s worth wondering what this means about Boston’s purported pursuit of a right-handed bat. Could a slightly crowded outfield picture prevent Breslow from adding the righty bat his lineup so badly needs?
The simplest answer is that Rafaela can take on a fourth outfielder role if/when he finds himself squeezed out of the starting lineup. He could also be the short side of a platoon with Abreu, who struggles against southpaws. In addition, it’s not as if Breslow completely closed the door on Rafaela returning to the infield. Perhaps if Story suffers another injury, Rafaela will be back on the dirt after all. A role like that might not be what the Red Sox had in mind when they signed him to a $50MM contract, but it’s not as if his $1.25MM salary for the 2025 season is an overpay for a Gold Glove-caliber bench player. Maybe Boston will eventually try to trade an outfielder, but there’s no reason to think they’re in a rush to get Rafaela – or Duran, Abreu, or Anthony – off their hands. Besides, Anthony isn’t even on the 40-man yet, and there’s plenty that could happen to affect Rafaela’s potential role between now and Opening Day.
Image courtesy of Imagn.