That’s a good thing.
The truth about prospect rankings is that they are quite literally meaningless. Maybe. Kind of.
It goes without saying that the rankings do not actually predict MLB performance. They are guesses. Granted, they are highly informed guesses backed by data, scouting, and sound methodology — but they are mere guesses nonetheless. Relatedly, they don’t predict organizational success. The San Diego Padres claimed the best farm system in all of baseball in 2012 according to Baseball Prospectus, and the third-best of 2013; they proceeded to finish under .500 for the next six years in a row. These lists also aren’t of any use to MLB teams themselves. MLB front offices in 2025 are bursting with analytics and scouting departments who develop their own (often proprietary) tools for assessing prospects. Craig Breslow doesn’t care what Baseball Prospectus thinks of Detroit Tigers pitching prospect Jackson Jobe, because Craig Breslow already knows what he thinks of Jobe.
What these lists are, ultimately, is content. They are no different than the countless articles you can find right now handicapping the Oscars race, which is to say that they are things to consume and then think about. To be clear: this is a good thing, as I’m not really sure there is any more to life than taking new things in and thinking about them. Moreover, as Red Sox fans, these rankings are things to consume, think about, and get absurdly excited about. And if you don’t believe me, take a look at Baseball Prospectus, which just released its 2025 rankings. Sox prospects make up two of the top three spots, with Roman Anthony claiming the top spot and Kristian Campbell coming in at number three. (Thus begins my life-long feud with Dylan Crews of the Washington Nationals, who squeezed in between them.)
So, just for fun (because, again, that’s what content is supposed to be), let’s take a look back at recent BP rankings and find out just how excited we should be. Here’s a list of every player who claimed a top three ranking on BP’s preseason list from 2016-2022, along with their career bWAR:
Now let’s make a few observations:
- First, of the 17 players listed above, there’s really only one traditional bust, as in a player who hasn’t proven to be a useful Major Leaguer at all. That would be Jo Adell of the Angels, who apparently can never catch a break. Alex Reyes’s 2.6 bWAR isn’t pretty, but I’m not sure I’d consider him a bust, given that he’s a pitcher who suffered back-to-back arm injuries just as his career began, and who now has found a place in the game as an All-Star reliever. (And, yes, there is Wander Franco, too, but let’s just call him an untraditional bust).
- Franco aside, two of the three players with the lowest bWAR totals are pitchers. In fact, they are the only two pitchers listed above at all. Never forget: TINSTAAPP.
- While there’s only one traditional bust, there are a few players you might call disappointments. I think most Sox fans would say that’s the case with Andrew Benintendi, who was a star for exactly one year in 2018 before succumbing to some kind of ancient Mayan mediocrity curse. Yankees fans might throw Gleyber Torres in there. And Nationals fans certainly view Victor Robles as a disappointment, though he finally put together a strong season last year, albeit only over 91 games and for a different team. The jury is still out on him.
- Now the fun part: of those 17 names, I would call 9 of them “MVP types,” as in players I would not be surprised to see win an MVP. And, in fact, 10 of them have already received MVP votes (with Acuna winning the award, of course), and that doesn’t even include Franco, who likely would’ve received votes at some point. So let me say this louder to make sure it’s clear: 10 of 17 top-3 BP prospects from 2016-2022 have already received MVP votes, and the Red Sox currently have two such players!
- And, oh yeah, Marcelo Mayer is number 25 on the list.
It’s mid-January, there’s ice on the ground, Craig Breslow still hasn’t found a right-handed bat, the Red Sox view free agents the way House Harkonnen view sandworms, and democracy is slowly crumbling all around us. But if you’re a Red Sox fan who isn’t excited for future, then find a good therapist because you’re dealing with some bigger issues.