Smash or Pass: Anthony Santander

As it turns out, a 40-home-run season at age-30 is fantastic for your stock.

Welcome back to Smash Or Pass, our offseason series in which we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the Red Sox. Next up, a slugger from an AL East rival.

Who is he and where does he come from?

He’s Anthony Santander, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles at the start of the offseason. He just turned 30 in October, he’s a switch-hitter, and he’s from Venezuela.

The Orioles, in case you need reminding, signed 2024 Red Sox slugger/outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a $16.5 per-year contract. They’re also the team with whom Santander made his Major League debut back in 2017, when he was just shy of 23. And, yes, they’re a contending team in large part thanks to Santander’s efforts, but they’re a team that has plenty of young promise thanks to a teeming farm. Santander was named to his first All-Star game in 2024 and raked 44 home runs, placing third in the Majors after two surefire Hall of Famers in Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtan. In the process, he earned himself his first Silver Slugger. And so, it’s only a matter of time before the “Interest Kings” talk ramps up again with another exciting free agent target.

As if Santander’s versatility at the plate wasn’t enticing enough, his historic power for a switch hitter may shift the tables in his favor for teams that did not win the Juan Soto sweepstakes (see here: the Boston Red Sox, but also his former team, the New York Yankees.)

Is he any good?

Short answer: Yes. He’s good.

Longer answer: You heard when I mentioned that, in 2024, the only players to hit more home runs are both absolutely going to the Hall of Fame, right? That followed up a 28-home-run performance in 2023, and 33 in 2022. Santander also accounted for 100 RBIs last year, and his strikeout rate is also falling, down to 19.4%.

His xBA, however, falls in just the 20th percentile at .228, alluding that, if it’s not a home run, it may be an out. Also, his defensive WAR is at a -2 Outs Above Average, a 28th percentile ranking, and he doesn’t run very well. In a hitter’s ballpark like Fenway, a slow outfielder can be a concern defensively as well as on the base paths.

But, who needs a base path??? Man, look at this spray chart!!!

Tl:dr; just give me his 2024 stats.

.235/.308/.506, .814 OPS, 44 HR, 129 K, 58 BB, 3.3 WAR (his career best)

Why would he be a good fit for the 2025 Red Sox?

Again…. that spray chart beckons great things. Also, the Red Sox are now missing their home run leader after O’Neill signed with Santander’s old team. There are some who say that Wilyer Abreu may be the right fielder of the future for the Red Sox, if he’s not traded away. But if you take away O’Neill’s 31 home runs in 2024 and replace them with Abreu’s 15, then the Red Sox would fall outside of the top ten in home runs and into the bottom half of MLB, if only barely. With lingering injury concerns for Triston Casas, the Red Sox don’t have a surefire power threat aside from Rafael Devers. Santander would mitigate that.

Why would he not be a good fit for the 2025 Red Sox?

To repeat myself: there are some who say that Wilyer Abreu may be the right fielder of the future for the Red Sox, if he’s not traded away. Abreu is a guy with a 94th percentile hard hit rate and elite defense, both things Santander doesn’t have. If continuing to develop Abreu is a consolation prize in lieu of Santander’s power…. it’s not a bad one.

What would he cost?

He has more isolated power than Tyler O’Neill, he’s the same age as Tyler O’Neill, and he whiffs less than Tyler O’Neill. He also declined a qualifying offer, one that Tyler O’Neill never received. Anthony Santander money has gotta be at least Tyler O’Neill money, right? And expect a year more than what O’Neill got, if not two. The fact that Santander hits from both sides of the plate is a big upside. My prediction: 4 years, 84 million.

Show me a cool highlight.

Here are forty-four cool highlights. Try to not get dizzy watching where these balls land.

Smash or pass?

Let me make this clear: Juan Soto was never going to play for the Boston Red Sox in 2025. I’m actually shocked the bidding got that high from John Henry. Now, let’s get more realistic: Santander is a guy who could solve two problems for the 2025 Red Sox by supplying power and a righty bat. Just look at the spray chart again. Smash.