It may take the largest contract in the history of baseball to acquire his services. Is it worth it?
Welcome to Smash Or Pass, our offseason series in which we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the Red Sox. Next up, an outfielder who may command the largest average annual value contract in the history of baseball.
Who is he and where does he come from?
He is Juan Soto and he comes from the Dominican Republic, signing with the Washington Nationals in July of 2015 at the age of 16. He made his debut with Washington in May of 2018, at 19 years old, homering in his first major league start. A year later, he hit .333 with three home runs in the World Series, helping lead the Nationals to a championship a couple of days after his 21st birthday. Soto was traded to San Diego at the trade deadline of 2022, playing a year-and-a-half with the Padres, before being traded once again to the New York Yankees for the 2024 season.
Is he any good?
C’mon now.
Here are the players that Soto compares most similarly to, through his 25-year-old season:
Baseball Reference
Eight of those players are already in the Hall of Fame or will be no-doubters when eligible, Vlad Jr. is TBD, and Andruw Jones’ vote percentage has increased each year (62% in ’24).
Soto is a generational talent offensively with a career .285/.421/.532 slash line, whose plate discipline is second to none. Since 2020, Soto has walked in 19.8% of his plate appearances while striking out 15.8% of the time, tallying more walks than strikeouts in each of those five seasons. No other player has more walks than strikeouts in that time frame, no matter how low you set the minimum PAs. Soto is so far ahead of the field it’s laughable.
Fangraphs
Soto’s barrel rates and hard-hit data are all in the top 1% percentile of baseball, year after year. He once hit a ball 520 feet at Coors Field during the Home Run Derby. He has hit 201 home runs in his seven-year career using all fields, his home runs dispersed between left, center, and right field almost identically. My favorite spray chart is from 2021, it’s beautiful.
Baseball Savant
In his five full seasons (excluding 2020 and his rookie year), Soto has averaged 108 runs scored. He’s been reliable, having never played fewer than 150 games in any of those full seasons.
Soto does lag a bit with speed and defense. His Sprint Speed was the 36th percentile this year, and he’s never stolen more than 12 bags in a season. Defensively, Soto was a surprising finalist for the Gold Glove in 2024 despite having a negative-5 Outs Above Average. However, he does have ten assists from the outfield in each of the last two seasons.
Tl;dr, just give me his 2024 stats.
.288/.419/.569/.989. 31 doubles, 4 triples, 41 home runs, 109 RBI, 128 runs, 7 stolen bases.
129 walks (18.1%), 117 strikeouts (16.7%).
8.1 fWAR, 7.9 bWAR.
Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
Juan Soto is a great fit on any team, specifically a contending team, and the Red Sox are seemingly entering their contention window starting in 2025. There are only a couple of players where you plan everything else around a player, and Juan Soto is one of them. The hope is that he makes a decision early enough in free agency that Soto can be Part One of the decision tree. The longer he waits, the fewer free agents are available and the fewer potential trade partners you may have.
Beyond his immense talent on the field, Soto offers a lot more that makes sense for the Red Sox. He showed he could handle the big moment in the playoffs before his 21st birthday, as a key piece helping to lead the Nationals to the 2019 World Series title. In 2024, Soto had numerous big hits that led the Yankees to the pennant while his co-star Aaron Judge thought he was in Spring Training. That included a three-run 10th-inning home run in Cleveland in the decisive Game Five win. He sports a .281/.389/.538 playoff slash line with 11 home runs in 43 games.
Soto’s age entering free agency may be his most valuable asset. Having just turned 26, he is “entering his prime” which is a scary thought. It’s hard to think of many players who hit free agency at this age, who weren’t posted from another country. Bryce Harper (26 y.o., 2019) probably qualifies, but he had a couple of down seasons, as superstars go. Alex Rodriguez (25 y.o., 2001) certainly does. So many of the top players in the annual free agent class are at, or near, 30 years old which requires a team to pay for past production and hope that the player doesn’t fall of a cliff in the first half of the deal. It’s hard to foresee that happening with Soto, even if he signs a 13-year deal, as the red flags are hard to find. Unless you’re offended by the Soto Shuffle after he takes a pitch, in which I have good news for you in that Soto no longer adjusts his crotch as part of the Shuffle. Your kids can still watch the games. His defense isn’t great but the beauty of Fenway is that 81 games are played in a “small” outfield in left, and there would be a 70/80 grade center fielder next to him in Ceddanne Rafaela, who is signed through 2031.
Lastly, there is a great recent history in Boston with Latin players, present and past. Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez formed a trio of Dominican stars in Boston in the 2000s, having incredible success in the city and were beloved by fans. You’d have to think they’re getting in Soto’s ear a little bit … well, maybe not Manny. Pedro has already agreed to jump on top of the dugout and have Soto in his gala, which is hard to turn down. On the current squad, along with several Latin players, you have a bilingual manager in Alex Cora, from Puerto Rico. Rafael Devers is Dominican and the thought of them hitting consecutively in Ortiz/Ramirez fashion should have you foaming at the mouth.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
There is not a single valid reason that Juan Soto would not be a good fit for the 2025 Red Sox, or beyond, but here are some reasons that other silly people have said:
The Red Sox have too many other needs. (Solution: Trade from your strengths to acquire your weaknesses.)
The Red Sox already have a full outfield of quality players, and the top prospect in baseball is an outfielder and coming up in 2025. (Solution: None of the outfielders currently in the major leagues is making the Hall of Fame. Trade two of them, for a lot of pitching.)
The Red Sox lineup is already too left-handed. (Solution: Trade other left-handed hitters, for pitching. Then, sign a right-handed hitter.)
He costs too much. (Solution: Don’t charge the highest ticket prices in the league if you can’t afford the best players in free agency. And stop charging me $29.99 a month for NESN. That’s ludicrous.)
He won’t be worth it at the end of his contract. (Solution: Hopefully we’re alive then. And he probably will. Players with outstanding plate discipline age far more gracefully than those without.)
What would it take to get him?
MLB Trade Rumors: 13 years, $600 million (46.2 AAV)
Fangraphs: 12 years, $576 million (48.0 AAV)
The Present Value of Ohtani’s contract was a record $43.8 million per year and both of these predictions have the Soto contract eclipsing that mark. Highest AAV + a total that starts with a “6” is probably the answer.
Show me a cool highlight.
Because I refuse to glorify any big hits he had for the Yankees, I’ll show you the massive home run that Soto hit off Justin Verlander in the 2019 World Series for the Washington Nationals. Verlander won the Cy Young in 2019.
Smash or Pass?
After the tone of the prior sections, I’m sure that “Smash” is not a surprising conclusion. This is more about the cost, the intent, and the likelihood that the Red Sox could sign Juan Soto. The Red Sox have been sarcastically referred to as “The Interest Kings” for years now, but it does feel like there’s a different tone this offseason. I don’t mean from ownership because we all know how much value their “word” carries, but rather from the reporters, the agents, and even ex-players like David Ortiz. Will the Red Sox claim that offering 13×42 for $546 million is a more than fair offer, without going above and beyond? It might still fall $100 million short, because Steve Cohen is sitting in Queens, having already paid $141M for this preposterous sculpture that’s alongside him and seems to really want Juan Soto. “If Steve Cohen wants something, he gets it,” we keep hearing. The Mets feel like the favorites, and a return to the Bronx seems reasonable as well. I’ll stay cautiously optimistic of a Red Sox holiday smash.