Should the Good Sox liberate a casualty of the Bad Sox? Or is he fool’s gold?
Welcome back to Smash Or Pass, our offseason series in which we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the Red Sox. Next up, a riddle, wrapped in an enigma, playing for the worst team of all-time.
Rooting for the White Sox is maybe the worst deal in baseball history. I’m sure fans of the now-Guardians may disagree, but subtract the 2005 title and it’s not merely that the White Sox didn’t win a title since 1919; it’s that they may as well have not existed. You can’t say the same for Cleveland. Despite all that, this year’s White Sox were arguably the worst team in baseball history, trailing only the expansion Mets—and even then, by one game—in futility. Luis Robert was a big part of this grotesquerie, but then again who wasn’t?
Befitting a team as historically down bad as the (Bad) Sox, Robert is acutely available in a trade. Rome wasn’t built in a day. He was so bad last year, going .224/.278/.379, that there’s real reasons for concern. Then again, he it 38 homers in 2023. Is this institutional rot, or is he toast? More importantly: Smash or Pass?
The Smash Case: Preposterous Upside
Again, he hit 38 home runs in 2023, on a .216/.315/.524 line, in 145 games, at age 25. He was a super-hyped prospect and, in 2021, turned in a magnificent .338/.378/.567 line in a half-season’s worth of at-bats. He had a considerably cooler year in 2022—the year they changed out the golf balls—but rebounded in 2023 before, you know, biffing it in 2024. He’s been back and forth, snip-snap, snip-snap, his entire MLB career. That’s an… unscientific metric, but, according to said metric, 2025 should be looking up!
The White Sox certainly think so, charging an arm and a leg for LouBob, or claiming to, at least. With both Garret Crochet (please, Craig Breslow!) and Robert available, the White Sox can afford to tread carefully. They’re treating Robert like the superstar he looks like half of the time, and why not? Can’t hurt to ask. Then again, for a team whose biggest free agent signing of all time is Andrew Benintendi, there’s an argument the team doesn’t know its ass from its ankles, so to speak. While that cuts both ways, it certainly conjures the idea that the White Sox are stupid idiots who ruin everything they touch, and releasing Robert from their spell could spur one of a glow-up worthy of Theoden. In that case—in the case Robert goes a perfectly attainable 30/30—we’ll know just how powerful their black magic is.
The Pass Case: Damaged Goods?
Here’s the thing: We all want Robert to be that guy, and he may yet be. But given what it’s going to cost to acquire him, is that a bet worth making this offseason? The White Sox are aiming appropriately high for a desperate team. Desperation can cut both ways, but if it cuts the way of treating Robert like he’s Ronald Acuna Jr., it’s best to back out.
The real problem is that the 2024 numbers don’t reveal any underlying problem. He got hurt in April and maybe never recovered, but it’s not like he had a super-low BABIP or anything. He just stopped hitting the ball far, and his defense, which had been quite good, fell off a cliff. His talent is undeniable, but so is, like Lauryn Hill’s—good luck getting her to show up to a concert, though.
If it wasn’t enough that I severely dated myself in the last paragraph, I’m fairly sure the Smash case, as written, is a Pass case, and vice versa.
The Verdict: Prospective Pass
It all comes down to the price. Robert is definitely worth having on your team, and in your organization, but not for what the White Sox want. For their sake, I hope the Red Sox aren’t in on him. If the price is right, though, I hope they are. Given how little Boston is likely to pay, it would be bad news on the South Side.