Smash or Pass: Nolan Arenado

The eight-time All-Star could be shipped out of St. Louis this off-season. Could he end up in Boston?

Before we begin: I’m blessed that the wise leadership at OTM has welcomed me into the elite fraternity of writers who develop the ongoing Smash or Pass series. I hope I don’t let them—and the rest of our team—down. The future of this site may depend on it.

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Who is he and where does he come from?

Why, he’s Nolan Arenado: the pride of *checks Wikipedia* Newport Beach, California. He plays third base, and he’s been one of the best players at the position since making his debut with the Colorado Rockies in 2013. In February of 2021, he was sent to the St. Louis Cardinals in return for a package that was headlined by VIP tickets for two to the next Fyrefest (date TBD), a dozen of those old Zune MP3 players, and a baseball signed by one of the Pod On Lansdowne hosts (I won’t tell you which one, you’ll have to guess).

Arenado has finished in the top five of MVP voting in the National League on four occasions. He boasts eight All-Star selections, five Silver Slugger awards, three NL home run crowns and a pair of NL RBI titles. But most notably, he has the reputation for being an absolute wizard with the glove. His dazzling display with the mitt led to 10 consecutive Gold Glove nods to start his career.

With reports out of St. Louie indicating that the Cardinals brass might be open to moving on from Arenado —who will be turning 34 years old in April—Sean McAdam of MassLive poised the possibility that he could become the new third baseman for the Red Sox, should Boston decide to move Rafael Devers off of the hot corner.

In case you were wondering: Arenado is under contract through 2027, per Spotrac. St. Louis is currently on the hook for $21 million next season, $16 million in 2026, and $15 million in that final year. I’m pretty sure Spotrac already accounts for what the Rockies do and don’t owe Arenado, so I’m working off of those figures. If I’m wrong on that front, feel free to yell at me about it—I’d understand.

Is he any good?

Well, to quote one William Jefferson Clinton…

On the one hand, the glove still plays. In 2024, Arenado logged 10 outs above average according to Baseball Savant. That’s within the 95th percentile, for the record; only Matt Chapman of the Giants (another defensive master over the course of the past decade) and Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz could say they had a higher OAA at third in 2024. He’s no longer at the absolute pinnacle of his powers with the leather (he had twenty two [22] OAA at third back in 2019, which is hilarious), but he can still anchor a team’s infield defense.

On the other hand, Arenado’s offense has not kept up with his defense. After a disappointing 2023 campaign on the heels of a 2022 season that saw him finish behind Cardinals teammate Paul Goldschmidt for the NL MVP honor, Arenado’s offensive output took a nose dive this past season. Expected metrics: down (he wasn’t striking out a ton, but the quality of contact was poor; an xwOBA in the 25th percentile tells that story). Traditional stats and counting numbers: down (his slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, home run total, and total amount of doubles were all the lowest he had logged in a non-COVID year since when he was a rookie in 2013). Any way you slice it, his production with the bat has regressed since that stellar 2022 season. Are the results from 2024 an outlier on an otherwise impressive resume at the dish, or is it a sign of things to come? I feel like I lean towards the latter, but your mileage may vary.

TLDR: just give me his 2024 stats.

Well, that wasn’t very please. A please would be nice.

What are you, a baby? Stats now.

No, not until you use your manners. Is this how your parents raised you?

Look dude, I don’t have all day. I’m on the clock at work and need to wrap this up. I can see my boss coming towards my desk. I know it’s Thanksgiving week and nothing gets done around here, but I still need to keep up appearances. So gimme the stats, Stat Boy.

Listen: you’re the one wasting the time here. Had you used your manners earlier, we would’ve been on to the pros and cons section of the blog.

*sigh* Pleeeeease give me his 2024 stats.

See, how hard was that?

In 635 plate appearances across 152 games in 2024, Nolan Arenado’s triple slash was .272/.325/.394 for a .719 OPS. He knocked 16 homers, drove in 71 runs, and crossed the plate 70 times. His OPS+ of 101 suggests he was one single percentage point better than the league average hitter.

Why would he be a good fit on the Red Sox?

Defense, defense, defense.

Over the past few years, the Red Sox’s bozo gene has shown itself on the defensive end, especially in the infield. Anyone who watches the games would be able to tell you that, but if you want something to point to in order to prove that you’re not imagining things: Trevor Story (with 10 in 2022 and eight in 2023) has been the only Boston infielder to get over five outs above average in a season since the start of 2020. Defensive lapses have joined baserunning goofs and lulls in September as an infuriating trait that has come to become hallmarks of the Red Sox’s brand of baseball in recent years.

Arenado would undoubtedly be able to help on that front. Him and a (hopefully) healthy Trevor Story would be no joke on the left side on the infield, especially if the team is able to improve the pitching staff with guys who can force ground ball outs (Max Fried, anyone?). The question would then turn to what to make of Devers—stick him at first or move him to the DH spot—but Arenado would provide some defensive stability.

The fact that Arenado bats from the right side doesn’t hurt, either, especially if he’ll be playing half of his games at Fenway Park. After all: the organization is loaded with lefties as is.

Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?

The fact that he’s a righty at the plate won’t mean a thing if his production on offense continues to lag. The defense would be good, but 2025 output that even matches the 2024 line wouldn’t cut it—especially if acquiring Arenado’s services is a prerequisite to saying goodbye to someone like Triston Casas or if it prevents the team from getting someone like Teoscar Hernandez to beef up the lineup.

Maybe you could be convinced that Arenado could turn things around—look at his spray chart from last year and you could tell yourself a story about him putting up fine numbers at home—but I’m not convinced that he’d be able to do so over the course of the next three years. It’d be one thing if he was barreling fewer balls and seeing drastic drops in his hard hit percentage and overall expected numbers when he was, like, 30 years old. But massive bounce backs are rare. Father Time comes for us all, and as he approaches his age-34 season, would you really want to take a gamble on Arenado finding his groove in the box again with his salary? He very well could get back to becoming a solid hitter considering that the numbers from 2024 across the board were more of an exception that a consistency, but is it worth finding that out if it’s going to cost $52 million over the next three season to do so?

I’m not suggesting that the Red Sox shouldn’t splurge this winter—they should, and they can—but it’s more about the opportunity cost to acquire Arenado. The team has other big things to address (pitching being number one); should the Red Sox allocate a significant part of their war chest for someone who might be a league average hitter at best when there’s already someone occupying third base?

Show me a cool highlight.

Are we really gonna do this song and dance again? The whole conversation about you not saying pl—

Please show me a cool highlight.

That’s better. How about a whole montage of his defensive highlights in 2024?

Smash or Pass?

I’m gonna cheat here and give you two answers. Wishy washy, I know.

In most circumstances, the idea of the Red Sox going after Nolan Arenado this off-season would be a pass for me. I’m not confident that his bat can produce enough in a hitter-friendly environment to justify the still-excellent glove, in spite of all of the woes Boston has had on defense over the past couple of years. The contract is prohibitive for this move—if it were a matter of giving Arenado a flyer deal in the free agent market, sure, but he’ll be on the books for the next three years. Even with the facilities to spend, I’m not sure I’d want the Red Sox to take that money on the books. So, generally, no thank you.

There is one scenario where I’d give Arenado a slight pass, though: if you’re somehow able to trade him in a package that sends outfielder Masataka Yoshida to the Gateway to the West.

Arenado’s contract is similar to what’s owed to Yoshida—Spotrac notes that Masa is set to earn $18.6 million over the next three years, so you’d actually be saving money over the long haul with Arenado’s deal on the books if you’re Boston. I still think Yoshida can be a solid big leaguer, but I believe it’s clear that his role in the big picture here for the Red Sox is limited at best. Manager Alex Cora won’t play him in the outfield, and Yoshida is a left-handed hitting outfielder in an organization filled with left-handed hitting outfielders. He seems to be a square peg in a round hole, unfortunately.

If you can convince the Cards’ President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak and old friend Chaim Bloom to take on Yoshida’s deal (hey, he’s the one who signed the guy!), I think I could ride with Arenado on this team. You might have to attach some prospect capital alongside Yoshida to get that money swapped—not sure what level of prospect it would take—but if the Sox are able to pull that off, they’ve suddenly got a solid defensive pairing on the left side of the infield (at least on paper) and a dangerous designated hitter (please don’t move Devers to first after trading Casas; that’s a bad idea and I’d be fully back on the pass side if that were the outcome of a trade for Arenado).

The money situation would virtually remain the same, too, if the Arenado-Yoshida swap happens. Boston could still go out and sign arms to bolster the pitching staff and they could still be in on the Juan Soto sweepstakes, since the payroll would be similar to what it is as I type this article.

The only question would be if you could persuade the Cardinals to pull the trigger on this sort of deal involving Yoshida. If that’s out of the question, then I think I’m all set on Arenado.