He’s potentially an all-time great… and he comes at a discount.
Welcome to Smash Or Pass, our offseason series in which we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the Red Sox. Today, we’re kicking off the 2024 offseason by taking a look at potentially the greatest pitcher in the history of Japan.
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s 23-year-old Roki Sasaki and he comes from Rikuzentakata, a small coastal city on the northeast coast of Japan. Rikuzentakata was almost completely wiped off the map in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The tsunami flooded every single building in the city that was under four stories tall and killed nearly 2,000 people out of a population of around 26,000.
Sasaki was just nine years old at the time of the disaster. His father and grandparents lost their lives and Sasaki and his family were forced to resettle in the nearby city of Ofunato. Nine years later, Sasaki was pitching for Ofunato High School when he threw a fastball clocked at 101 MPH, breaking Shohei Ohtani’s record for the fastest pitch in the history of Japanese high school baseball.
Is he any good?
Well, anyone who throws 101 MPH at age 18 is obviously pretty good. But Saski isn’t just a hard-thrower; he’s someone who has the potential to be the greatest Japanese pitcher of all-time.
Chances are you’ve already heard of Roki Sasaki, and not jut because he was on the Samurai Japan team that won the 2023 World Baseball Classic. That’s because Sasaki made international news in April 2021 when, as a 20-year-old rookie, he threw what may have been the best-pitched game in baseball history. Facing the Orix Buffaloes for the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki threw a 105-pitch perfect game. He recorded 19 strikeouts in the game, struck out 13 consecutive batters at one point, and finished with a game score of 106, one point higher than the game score that Kerry Wood recorded when he struck out 20 batters in 1998, which is the highest game score in MLB history.
And, oh yeah: in his next start Sasaki threw eight more perfect innings with 14 strikeouts against the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters before being lifted from the game for pitch count purposes.
He complements his heater with a devastating splitter that generated a 57% whiff rate in 2024, along with a slightly less nasty slider with a 40.7% whiff rate. To put that into context, only Josh Hader’s slider and Fernando Cruz’s splitter returned higher whiff rates than Sasaki’s splitter in MLB last year. Of course, Hader and Cruz are both relievers.
There is some concern about injuries and a drop in velocity. While he has not had any major injuries, Sasaki has never thrown more than 130 innings in a single season. In 2023, he battled an oblique injury and totaled just 91 innings. This past season he threw 111 innings, missing time with what his team vaguely and ominously called “a right arm injury.” Moreover, his average fastball velocity dipped from 98.9 MPH in 2023 to 96.9 MPH in 2024, according to this NPB pitch profiler.
Tl;dr, just give me his 2024 stats.
18 G, 111 IP, 83 H, 32 BB, 129 K, 2 HR, 8 HPB, 2.35 ERA
Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
He’s a 23-year-old phenom who has the potential to be a top-five pitcher in MLB for the next decade. The Red Sox could use one of those.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
There’s absolutely no reason he wouldn’t be a good fit, particularly considering what he’ll cost (more on that below). What a stupid section this is!
What would it take to get him?
Here’s where things get interesting. Last year, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s posting kicked off an intense bidding war that ended with the Dodgers signing Yamamoto to a massive $325 million contract. Things will be very, very different in Sasaki’s case.
Sasaki is not yet 25 years-old, meaning he does not have full international free agent status. He is free to sign with any MLB team he wants, but his contract will be the same 6-year, arbitration-eligible contract that every player who graduates from the minor leagues receives. MLB teams are free to offer him bonus money, but that money is subject to MLB’s international bonus pool caps.
In other words: by coming to MLB now instead of two years from now, Sasaki is leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table. Moreover, every MLB team will be able of offer Sasaki roughly the same contract, with only a negligible difference in bonus money. Presumably then, Sasaki will base his decision on any number of other personal factors and, at this point, we have no idea what those factors might be.
Show me a cool highlight.
The best-pitched game in baseball history sounds pretty cool to me!
Smash or pass?
This is the easiest smash in the history of this series. Absolutely every single MLB team will attempt to sign Sasaki and, seeing as how he’s subject to a rookie contract, his arm could fall off the moment he puts pen to paper and it would still be a great deal.