He got some postseason experience in 2024, but his team recently gave a huge contract out, Where does he go now?
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s Sean Manaea. For most of his career, he’s been the owner of some of the best locks in baseball, before chopping them off when he came to the Mets in 2024, his fourth team in four seasons. He had spent six seasons with the Athletics, the third of which featured a no-hitter against the eventual World Series champion Red Sox. His 2024 employer had, welllll, some unexpected… expected? expenses come up for the 2025 season, almost ensuring that Manaea will pitch elsewhere in 2025.
Is he any good?
He’s had flashes, but he was at his best before his journey across the country, back when he was still on the A’s, following a few shoulder injuries limiting his 2019 campaign. As a lefty, he’d give the rotation balance, and he’s pitched at least 100 innings per season since 2021, averaging just under 160 innings.
He was a relief pitcher in 2023 in San Francisco but he returned to form on the Mets, notching a career high in innings and again striking otu more than a batter an inning (9.12/9 IP)… and that’s with abandoning his four-seam fastball in exchange for a sinker. Ultimately, though, the 32 year old’s velocity has plunged down to below 93 miles an hour.
The worry is that Manaea is just average. Take, for instance, his percentile rankings via Savant above. That ball can extend quite a bit, at 7.2 inches, but everything else is pretty ordinary.
Tl:dr; give me his 2024 stats.
181 2⁄3 IP, 12-6, 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 184 K, 63 BB, 2.8 WAR
Why would he be a good fit for the 2025 Red Sox?
The longevity is a huge plus, as is the fact that he’s a lefty. His sinker/sweeper pitch mix helped him get his ERA and home run rate under control. Most importantly: he’s a pitcher… the Red Sox need those.
Why would he not be a good fit for the 2025 Red Sox?
There’s been a lot of talk about the front office acquiring pieces that will carry the Red Sox to the next level and becoming contenders this year. Sean Manea isn’t a next-level guy, but he wouldn’t be a bad secondary piece. However, here are his career postseason stats, albeit in a small sample size, most of which came with the Mets on their run to the NLCS:
7 G, 26 2/3 IP, 7.76 ERA, -0.81 WPA/LI (Situational Wins), 9 HR, 11 BB
Not exactly a glowing postseason resume.
What would he cost?
Manaea declined the qualifying offer a few weeks ago. This is, as Matt Gross detailed, a shark-like player’s market. I’m going to continue to use the Yusei Kikuchi deal as a benchmark for serviceable pitchers. For a guy who’s recently improved, roughly $25 million a season feels for three years feel like what he may cost, especially since he just turned down $20 guaranteed for 2025.
Show me a cool highlight.
Smash or Pass?
I’m going to use Kikuchi’s contract as a benchmark for the second straight question. Based on just knowing the market for pitchers, if a guy like Yusei Kikuchi was categorized as a guy who’d help the bottom of the rotation, and netted $21 million per year from the Angels, and Nick Pivetta remains a free agent, it’d be more cost-efficient to spend about $10 million more and get a real quality piece who’d help the front end of the rotation and allow some proven internal pieces like Kutter Crawford and a returning Lucas Giolito as the 4-5 starters… or a piece that may not cost $20-25 million a year. And this is if the Mets don’t feel froggy enough to engage in a bidding war for a guy who didn’t have any major hiccups until the postseason. Pass.