Smash or Pass: Willy Adames

We already have a glut of infielders…but we have to consider upgrades and injuries.

Welcome to Smash Or Pass, our offseason series in which we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the Red Sox. Next up, a middle infielder free agent.

Who is he and where does he come from?

Willy Adames is a 29-year-old free agent shortstop from the Dominican Republic who initially signed as an international free agent with the Detroit Tigers. There’s a sort-of Red Sox connection there because David Price was involved in the three-way trade in 2012 that sent Adames to the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course, Adames was in the minors then, and Astro’s Dad was still several years away from even becoming a Red Sox, but maybe you can pull that out of your back pocket today and surprise someone. While Adames rose through the ranks of the Rays’ minor leagues, he was their number one prospect for three seasons running (rising as high as number 16 nationally). He made his MLB debut in 2018 and was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021, where he’s been ever since.

Is he any good?

Well, any player that has the Astros, Mets, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays all rumored to be vying for his services probably has something going on. And yet there are reportedly concerns around the league about signing him. Not only was there a regression in Adames’s defense in the 2024 season, but also because several high-profile, expensive shortstop contracts haven’t worked out in recent seasons. Any Sox fan knows that our own Trevor Story is on that list, and so are Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Javy Báez.

So let’s get that out of the way now, while also pointing out that Story’s history of injuries is one reason to investigate this contract. Here’s the aforementioned regression:

• Adames had 16 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2023, but dropped to just 1 OAA last season.
• Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) for Adames dipped, big-time, from +8 in 2023 to -16 (yes, that’s a negative 16) last season.

But yes, he has been historically good, even elite. He’s certainly the top shortstop in this free agent class, and one of the premier free agents overall, at least outside of pitchers.

In 2022, he broke the Brewers franchise home run record for a shortstop when he smacked 31 homers, besting Robin Yount by two.

In 2024, Adames tackled another record for power-hitting shortstops: this time it was an all-MLB record for four-baggers mashed in consecutive games by a shortstop. He hit five and shares this MLB record with five other players. Sometimes niche records like this can drill down a little far for my taste, but they’re fun, and also—anytime someone’s name is sharing or beating records from the likes of Hall of Famer Robin Yount, coulda-been Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez, and current stars Corey Seager and Trea Turner…well, you’ve got my attention!

Tl;dr, just give me his 2024 stats.

With the Brewers, Adames hit .251/.331/.462 (118 OPS+) with 33 doubles, 32 homers, 112 RBI, 93 runs scored, 21 steals and 3.1 WAR.

He reached career highs in homers, RBI, hits, doubles, walks, and stolen bases. He declined the Brewers’ Qualifying Offer.

Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?

He’s a right-handed batter; we need more of those.

He doesn’t get injured. He played 161 games in 2024, and his career-low is 139 games. Wouldn’t that be refreshing? Adames’s reliability and good health might give back a few gray hairs and wrinkles from last season, huh?

He hit a lot of doubles last season, and the Monster will help him to hit more, of course. Although I wouldn’t call him a career speedster, (having stolen no more than eight bases until his 21 last season), if he intends to use that speed tool moving forward, that would be a fun addition to the Sox recent brand of baseball.

There’s talk that he’s willing to move to second or third base, which could work in our favor, but it sounds as though he’s demanding a higher price for that flexibility (more on that in a minute).

Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox?

As mentioned above, there’s some risk—but when isn’t there in this extremely imprecise science of predicting the future, understanding luck, health, and all the types of human frailties! The risk here would be due to Adames’s 2024 regression on defense.

And this regression gives me pause because, as you know, that was a sticking point for me all last season. I’ll say it again: the Sox simply can’t compete if they continue to prioritize savings and positional flexibility over the most basic baseball skills. What surprised me was that they did not lead MLB in errors at the end of the season (as they often did throughout it), only being error-prone enough for second place. If we’re serious, that can’t continue.

Here are my concerns about Adames’s defense as it relates to the Sox:

• The drop in OAA and DRS from 2023 to 2024 (mentioned above)
• He committed 20 errors in 2024 (good for fourth place in MLB). That’s more than he’s ever committed; he had 14 errors in 2023 and 2022
• He finished 2024 with a .963 fielding percentage

I’ve seen various theories as to why Adames kind of blew it defensively last year. A local Brewers article from mid-season attributes Adames’s struggles to not attacking the ball, and perhaps not seeing the ball clearly off the bat. Small sample size, but the three chosen videos seem to bear that out: he waits too long for the ball to come to him and sort of gets eaten up by it. That’s exactly the kind of fundamental mistake that the Sox can’t stomach any longer. Others have said he turned too much focus toward improving his offense, or posited age, or gave it up to one of the mysteries of the Milwaukee universe. Whatever the issue, it doesn’t seem to have been injuries or the usual tensions and stressors.

Impossible to know this at this point in time, but a reasonable question is whether 2024 was a one-off, or the start of a trend?

What would it take to get him?

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Adames wants to continue at short, but could be open to a position change for the right money and the right team—that is, one that’s serious about winning.

General consensus seems to be that the range for Adames’s next contract is something like $150-200 million over six years. There’s talk that he already received an offer of $160+ for seven years from the Mets; that would be contingent on him moving to third base.

Rumors are that the Dodgers have also put in an offer for his services.

It’s still unknown how or if the Sox are going to spend this offseason, so this might all be for nothing. But Matt Gross has read the tea leaves and says we will.

Show me a cool highlight.

Since I started off with so many caveats about Adames’ defense, let’s balance that out. Here’s an unconventional but cool way to get the double play started: if it bounces oddly off your torso, simply nudge it along the ground over to the second baseman, who gets the force at second and has just enough time to nail the runner at first too. I love the instincts and the commitment to getting it done!

Here’s a less comical double play that shows Adames’s defensive chops: a great dive and toss to second. It was so good that it brought Pete Alonso to his knees haha.

Smash or Pass?

I’ll be honest; I’m of a divided mind. I’m concerned about the regression because I’m committed (and the Sox may or may not agree with me on this) to doing better on defense in 2025, dammit. What was wrong with Adames last year, and why couldn’t he or the Brewers pinpoint and address it? Could Red Sox coaching or a change of scene unlock some old muscle memory for fundamentals? Could an eye exam reveal something as simple as the need for a pair of glasses?

With a healthy Trevor Story, and Marcelo Mayer allegedly moving up from the minors in 2025, we seemingly have no need for a shortstop (barring injuries, or a trade to break up the infield logjam and acquire pitching). Could Adames move successfully to second base (he has almost no experience there), and serve as an insurance policy at short in case Trevor Story gets injured again?

Last season, I was jumping up and down to strengthen our defense while the Sox doggedly persevered with an inferior, often AAAA-level, infield. But, now that we’ve come this far, circumstances have changed. I would love to solve the revolving door at second base, but is Adames the guy to do it? In 2025, I think we might be able to make something work with what we have. Are either Vaughn Grissom or Kristian Campbell (both right-handed bats, by the way) an in-house solution? Like a lot of people, I’m especially interested in Campbell, though he may not be ready to start the season at the MLB level. Romy Gonzalez seems like a solid option to come off the bench, where he’s had success in pinch hitting. Nick Sogard is a bench option also, in my mind. Enmanuel Valdez, for me, isn’t part of the solution at all. I sincerely hope the Sox plans don’t include starting any of these guys regularly.

I think Adames is a Pass, given our need for vastly improved defense, the defensive uncertainties that he brings with him, and the potential that we may have in Grissom and Campbell right now. Grissom should be ready to start 2025 healthy, and Campbell may even win the starting job. Both would earn far less than Adames’s $20+ AAV and to my mind, these three are all somewhat uncertain, though for different reasons. Adames doesn’t feel like a surefire upgrade right now.

This brings us back to Craig Breslow (and by extension, up the chain to John Henry). Is there some creative wheeling and dealing involving Adames that I’m not seeing, that could upgrade us in the infield and in the (right-handed) batter’s box, while leaving money for everything else we need? And by that, of course, I mean pitching. If the answer is yes, then please Craig, go ahead and dream up a fancy three-team deal that clears out the roster congestion, brings back some pitching and right-handed bats, and makes everybody happy!

God help me, if Trevor Story goes down again, I’ll obviously be singing a different tune, but Pass.