The Rays worked their magic yet again. Would it carry over to Fenway?
Welcome back to Smash Or Pass, our offseason series in which we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine whether they make sense for the Red Sox. Next up: a successful reclamation project who is likely to be traded this offseason.
I missed the Zack Littell experience the first time the Red Sox tried it, but I suspect that I’m not the only one, given that it consisted of a whopping two relief appearances in less than a week in May 2023, after which the journeyman was designated for assignment and signed by Tampa Bay. In less than two years, the Rays used their devil magic to rehab Littell — on his third Major League team, and sixth MLB organization — into an above-average starting pitcher, one who threw more than 156 innings last year with a 3.63 ERA. Now he’s a trade target, and the pitching-starved Sox could be in the market for a guy that, two years ago, they couldn’t even keep around for a fortnight, and, more recently, threw seven one-hit innings against the Sox in September.
So the question is: Smash or Pass?
The Smash Case: Development Isn’t Linear
Littell is hardly the first pitcher to come alive in baseball middle-age, nor is he the first one to do so in Tampa, where rehabbing guys like him is practically the name of the game. Lookin at his Baseball Savant page, the first thing that jumps out about the last two seasons is that his walk rate plummeted to elite levels while his chase rate remains quite high; TLDR he gets people to swing and doesn’t give free passes.
He has turned his career around by easing off his four-seam fastball, which he used to throw nearly 60 percent of the time and now throws only about 30 percent of the time. Making up the difference are increased slider and split-finger usage, as well as the Rays-related introduction of a sinker and a changeup. In short, junk. He’s not here to overpower anyone—he’s here to keep everyone off-balance. As FanGraphs’s Jeff Zimmerman said, he “attacks batters backwards.” The good news is that an out’s an out either way.
About half of Littell’s career innings were pitched over the last two years, meaning that he’s definitely not overworked. The only question is longevity, and the only way to answer it is to see it happen. For a Sox team in desperate need of innings, it could be worth it.
The Pass Case: Peaky Blinders
If Littell’s 2024 was a revelation, there’s some evidence that it could have been his 90th percentile outcome, and signing him would be akin to reading the Smash case with blinders on.
Yes, Littell was successful in 2024 as he threw his fastball less than ever before, but that seems to have been due to necessity as much as anything else. Per Zimmerman at FanGraphs, he lost a whopping 4 MPH on the pitch over the course of the year, and, during warmer months, has had a difficult time keeping the ball in the park:
Month: HR/9
Apr: 0.8
May: 0.9
Jun: 2.3
Jul: 1.6
Aug: 1.7
Sep: 0.7
That’s great for fantasy baseball — acquire, trade high, buy low, repeat — but it’s less attractive for a Red Sox team who would be wedded to Littell during the voracious-slugging dog days of summer. Littell’s fastball has always been a good one for hitters to square up, and even at 30 percent usage, another haircut of a few MPH could make all the difference between useful starter and nightmare fuel. Given that he is 29, and has had one good season, expecting his fastball to regain its old life seems like wishful thinking for me, especially without the magic Tampa potion that helps everyone do what they do down there.
The Verdict: Pass
I’m happy for Littell. He reminds us that good things can happen to players who manage to just stick around. I’m fairly certain we’ve seen the best of him, though, and would rather the Sox spend their prospect capital elsewhere.